Hillary Clinton has about a 76% chance of winning the presidency. (edited: link added)

[Cryptoad]

Last edited Tue Jul 19, 2016, 04:55 PM - Edit history (1)

Source: NYT

The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same probability that an N.B.A. player will miss a free throw.

From now until Election Day, we’ll update our estimates with each new poll, as well as collect the ratings of other news organizations. You can chart different paths to victory below. Here’s how our estimates have changed over time:


Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?src=twr&smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=1

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If Trump loses any one of the states of OH, FL, PA, Hillary wins the election!

[ananda]

1. From the way things are going at the GOP convention ..

.. I make it 110% !

[bucolic_frolic]

2. OH FL PA

Heavy sledding for Democrats with blue collar and white males and households

But if we could pickoff AZ that might help!

[LynneSin]

6. Hillary will win Pennsylvania

Serious efforts will be made to ensure high voter turnout in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, two very progressive cities. If Philly gets high voter turnout the Republicans cannot win. There just aren't enough registered republicans in the state to prevent a win with the Philly vote in play.

It's a shame because we rarely see that kind of voter turn out in the Midterms, which pretty much how Pat Toomey won 2010 election. But his seat is very vulnerable because his re-election is during a Presidential Election year. I predict a high voter turn out in the cities and a win for both Hillary and McGlinty.

Unfortunately gerrymandering is so awful in PA that more people will vote to have a Democrat represent them in the house yet the GOP will keep about 12-13 of the 18 Congressional seats. At one point, the GOP in PA wanted to split the PA vote based on congressional districts, which means a Democratic Presidential Candidate could win Pennsylvania yet only take home about 5 of 20 Electoral Votes. Thankfully PA voted out Gov Tom Corbett for a democrat so that is safe for now.

[7962]

3. 76%?? Thats ALL? They must be trying to make it interesting!!! nt

[DonCoquixote]

4. please let's not be the hare

and let the Tortoise win because our egos are too big. Remember the GOP will cheat cheat cheat and cheat again, especially as Ohio and FL are in the hands of firmly right wing governors.

[Fast Walker 52]

5. Race is tied according to NBC

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-clinton-trump-now-tied-gop-convention-kicks-n611936

[LynneSin]

7. Of course it is else they'd lose the news story

In a way the Democrats want to keep it close to help with higher voter turnout.

[elmac]

8. That percentage sounds about right to me

even before the RNC circus

[NeoConsSuck]

9. Let's all work a little harder

and get that percentage into the 90's!

[Kablooie]

10. FiveThirtyEight currently has her chances at 61.3%

I prefer their estimate because it's based on a mathmatical analysis of all the polls together.

It's not as cheery but it's probably more accurate.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[miyazaki]

11. I'd say 99%. But there's that 1%, and they ruin everything. n/t

[Beacool]

12. I'm praying that it is so.

More for our sake than hers. I can't fathom a Trump presidency.