As Clinton stumbles, Trump takes an apparent slim lead in new tracking poll

[TomCADem]

Source: LA Times

As the presidential race moves into a key two-week period, with the announcement of running mates and the party conventions, Donald Trump has taken an apparent slim lead over Hillary Clinton, based on strong support from white voters, particularly men.

That finding, from a USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak tracking poll, a new survey that begins publication Friday, marks a significant shift in a race that most polls indicated Clinton has led since mid-May.

It comes amid a flurry of other surveys, both nationally and in battleground states, that show support for the former secretary of State declining since last week when FBI Director James B. Comey characterized her handling of classified material while in that office as “extremely careless.” Comey also said her conduct and that of her aides did not clearly violate the law or warrant prosecution.

What isn’t known is whether the new surveys are capturing Clinton at a low that will prove temporary, as voters react to Comey’s criticism and the renewed attention to her use of a private email server, or whether they reflect a more lasting shift that could hobble the presumed Democratic nominee for the remainder of the campaign.

Read more: http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-lat-tracking-poll-20160705-snap-story.html

---

I think Trump offers white men the chance to retain their historical advantages and privilege over women and minorities. I think it is a mistake to discount the appeal of a hate based message. Adding Pence, who is very anti-LGBT, will strengthen the appeal. Put another way, Trump/Pence validate the bigotry that many in America feel. Think of how Trump's message that “All of the men, we’re petrified to speak to women anymore” resonates with men. It makes it okay to be sexist towards women, because its actually women who are sexist for raising the issue of sexism or rape. Likewise, Black men who protest killings of innocent men by saying Black lives matter are being racists.

http://www.vox.com/2016/5/10/11650098/donald-trump-men-petrified-hillary-clinton-woman-card-red-pill

"If [Clinton] didn't play the women's card, she would have no chance, I mean zero, of winning," Trump said. "She's playing the women's card. She's going — " [here Trump's voice drips with sarcasm] "'Did you hear that Donald Trump raised his voice while speaking to a woman?' Oh, I'm sorry!"

And then: "I mean. All of the men, we're petrified to speak to women anymore. We may raise our voice. You know what? The women get it better than we do, folks. They get it better than we do. If she didn't play that card, she has nothing."

Women in the audience started cheering at this.

Trump's "women get it better than we do" line could mean two things. It could mean that he thinks women have an easier lot in life than men — partly because men now have to be constantly "petrified" of being labeled sexists.

[tonyt53]

1. LAY OFF THE POLLS UNTIL LABOR DAY!!!!! Right now they mean jack shit.

[Aristus]

2. "Clinton Stumbles" HOW?

Is this anything other than "close horse-race" bullshit?

[Deuce]

8. That was my first thought also...

[Cosmocat]

15. Its a negative frame, but

it is absolutely reflective of how the election would look today.

Hillary didn't "stumble."

She didn't do anything wrong.

But, she suffered a VERY devastating partisan political stunt by Comey which set up the right wing and media to blast the shit out of her.

At the same time, for the first time, Trump has managed to restrain himself for a little over a week. He hasn't said or posted any crazy as shit on Twitter.

NOW - what does this mean?

First, the e-mail thing was a anvil over Hillary's head. I think the assumption was that she would be exonerated, and probably would take a hit for nothing coming from it. But, what made it so damaging was Comey's very well crafted press conference where he

1) flat lied and put it into public record that she had transfered over a 100 emails, which he had to take back under oath in the congressional hearing a few days later, but that made no difference. His lie will be what people think, that she did send and receive 100s of classfied emails.

2) His editorializing in saying that it is possible that these classified emails she never sent or received could have been hacked.

It was a MUCH bigger hit than simply stating the facts.

The rot from this will fade, but there are to disconcerting aspects.

That her margin folded up so easily because of:

1) this completely fake scandal, and for sure they WILL try to drum up 100 more between now and November.
2) That Trump is showing a restraint he has not shown to this point, and that his simply not being out there saying and tweeting stupid as shit can recoup his numbers a bit.

It doesn't matter that Comey lied and the e-mail issue is a completely made up scandal. That is simply the world we live in today. Rs will contrive this bullshit, the media will propagate it, the dumb asses in this country will buy it.

Trump now gets to roll into the convention with this basically tied.

Pence won't help him, but he won't hurt him, either.

Maybe the convention is a complete fustercluck. But, short of that, he should get a bounce.

A few weeks and then Hillary gets her turn at it.

Sad to say, but we have to hope Trump loses his discipline and starts talking off the prompter again.

[padfun]

3. There is no "shift"

It's a new poll that is probably quite an outlier. We've had solid polls in just the last two days that say quite different.

The media has to stop treating EVERY poll equally as if the public changed their minds on within a day. Start treating these polls for what they are, pointless and inaccurate measurements

[kimbutgar]

4. I'd like to see posts about polls banned on DU until after labor day

These polls are meant to discourage us to feel hopeless about voting.

How about that DU moderators?

[tonyt53]

5. Great suggestion!!!!!

[TomCADem]

6. Think Folks Underestimate The Strength of Racist/Sexist Campaign

In today's media, which tends to push false equivalency as a substitute for objective journalism, I think Trump's racist, sexist and incendiary attacks will be normalized. Heck, look at how Giuliani and Gingrich are now jumping on the band wagon. The media is n not covering the issues. Instead, it is covering Hillary's e-mails. The Public Option? College education? The DNC and Hillary's campaign have issued announcement and held rallies, but the actual discussion of issues has been ignored.

[ret5hd]

9. I say we make "Home On The Range" the official DU song!

[ChairmanAgnostic]

13. I'd like a long beach, a pail, and a shovel

so we could stick our heads in the sand every time bad news comes out.

How about instead, we determine and define the problem, and deal with it?
If it takes sending a message to our candidate, then let's do that, rather than shoot the messenger.

She has problems in her campaign. She has to adapt and change course. IF she can understand why her campaign is flagging.

[kimbutgar]

14. The problem with her campaign is that the MSM is giving all their air time to the Cheeto

And bashing Hilkary 24/7. They don't even give her positive coverage when she does a good policy speech or make a good point. I think her campaign is doing good. It's the media that is the problem.

I used to love watching msnbc and now seems it's the Cheeto channel.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

16. Then her campaign has to change and shake things up.

No more milquetoast campaigning on a rigid plan that does not adapt or adopt new approaches.

My gosh, she can lose this thing. And she is doing a good job of it.

[kimbutgar]

17. Something tells me she will shake it up after the Democratic convention

Plus the full strength of Obama, Biden, Sanders and Warren have not been released on the Cheeto. Why waste her time now to forcefully attack the con man only us political junkies are really paying attention.

[ret5hd]

36. So, keeping her powder dry?

The only way the Democratic Party could get their powder any drier is with a bucket load of silica desiccant.

[kimbutgar]

37. I am not going to alert you

But isn't the rule of DU is not to bash the Democratic nominee?

[larkrake]

20. keep our heads in the sand? Not me, I want to see polls

[The Green Manalishi]

26. As a former pollster and news junky I respectfully disagree

People who don't want to hear about or discuss polls do not need to read the thread.

There is no reason for anyone, ever, anywhere, to feel discouraged or hopeless about voting and if we know a fellow Democrat who is we should give them moral support.

No, they don't mean much about who is going to win at this point, but they do tell us a lot about candidate strategies and what the media wants us to think OF COURSE the media wants the tightest, closest and most dramatic race possible, even the most liberal website needs eyeballs to pay the bills

Regards

[Saviolo]

7. I guarantee

That the media will be reporting a close race right up until November, whether or not there is a close race. They need the drama, they need the conflict, they need interest for pundits to argue endlessly so that they can sell more ad spots. A race with a clear frontrunner doesn't capture eyeballs.

If there are 10 polls that show Trump is flagging, you can bet all the talking heads will talk about #11 that shows the race is neck and neck. Lots of folks on DU have been predicting since early this year that the media would manufacture a close race regardless how close things actually are.

[TexasTowelie]

10. .

New poll,
no track record,
no concern.

[karynnj]

11. Interesting comments on Trump's gender card comments

I had not heard the "women get it better than we do" comment and I suspect that the women applauding - Trump supporters may be the culturally conservative women who want a return to rigid societal roles.

Part of the illusion that the 1950s were some long lost better world is that everything was like the sitcoms of the 50s and early 60s. Obviously this Ignores that blacks, Hispanics and women had less power then white men. What they see are one income households with the women happily raising the kids, cooking and cleaning the house. (The commercials even have women in lovely dresses and heels vacuuming.) The plots show any problems resolved by the wise parents by end of the show. The committee, nation and world in the background is idyllic.

To me, that role would be suffocating and fortunately it was not my life. However, if that was a comforting image, I think that the idea is that it is the guy has to work to support his wife and family, while the woman is totally protected from all that coarseness.

Given how low Trump polls with women, I think that these women cheering this comment are - thankfully - a small minority of women.

[Moonwalk]

32. I don't think these women are dreaming of going back to vacuuming in high heels...

...if they see anything in those old sit-coms that they want, it's the black housemaid waiting the table and doing the housework FOR the white woman in the heels and pearls. Like most Trump voters, they believe every white person used to have a chance to be rich and happy. But non-white people (and women) messed that up by taking the jobs, asking for equal pay, equal rights, and all those other things.

So, of course they want to go back to the days when only white Christians had rights. And high-paying jobs were always given to white men, and, thus, their wives didn't have to work but could spend the day getting their hair done. When, in short, everyone else worked for white Christian males and their wives, for nothing, and were quiet and subservient and invisible. That is all there is to this. All there has ever been to all this. The "paradise" of America before all these other races and religions and such made it uncomfortable and hard for the superior and righteous ones. This includes times when America was the richest, most powerful country on Earth, and was feared and respected, just like white folk were feared and respected.

What more perfect emblem for this dream than a millionaire, feared and respected, with a beautiful, pampered wife? Of course women voting for this savior are going to cheer when he says that Hilary is "nothing" if it wasn't for the woman card. Hilary is for mingling with minorities, legally allowing perverts into women's bathrooms, and kids going to school with Muslims! No woman in her right mind would vote for that. Women who are seeing clearly want minorities in the background, safe bathrooms, kids praying in school, and Christmas celebrated in the town square. Hilary voters (the white ones) are only voting for her because she's a woman....what other reason could there be not to vote for Trump?

[onehandle]

12. Hillary is leading in blue states and swing states and yet she is 'losing' nationally?

Sounds like just another bullshit poll.

[George II]

18. Question: Why do you repeatedly post articles/opinion pieces that are negative about our candidate?

[Mika]

19. Thanks for posting.

Dems need to be aware and cautious... In order to modify the campaign message to bring in gullible voters prone to deciding on who to vote for based on media memes.

[vkkv]

21. Racists live in their own little corrupted world where reasonable, proven ideas may not enter.

Very few cures for prejudice.. in fact I can only think of one, which to face one's fears, but racists are likely convinced that that won't work, so they don't bother.

[Loki Liesmith]

22. not a poll

a panel.

[ananda]

23. This is such transparent media and faux polling bias.

Clinton is doing just fine.

[asiliveandbreathe]

24. I prefer watching Nate Silver -

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ - but if you must - just this morning..it is interesting to note the way nbc has worded the story - they seem to be always in the negative, talking about how well Hill is doing...just an observation..

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/head-to-head-heres-whos-winning-battleground-states/ar-BBumiyR?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp

I never expected this story this am..especially after the late breaking news from last nights polls..

Oh well, the horse race makes for great ratings..too bad someone can't tell it like it is....

Drumpf will NEVER BE PREZ....

If I were a rethug (perish the thought) I would be so confused right now....

[pnwmom]

25. It's not a lead when it's within the stated margin of error -- as this poll is. n/t

[yourpaljoey]

27. Soon we will find out if Trump is taking this race seriously

He can be a serious contender is he wants to be.
This would be no cakewalk.

[matt819]

28. Clinton Stumbles? WTF?

I really have to stop spending time on the intertubes. All of this shit is just raising my BP and making me sick.

[Moonwalk]

29. "If she didn't play the women's card she'd get nothing...." But the African-American vote...

...the Latino vote, the LGBT vote, the disabled vote (I'm assuming most of them didn't like Tump's impersonation of a disabled man), the Jewish vote (I'm guessing at least half are swinging her way), and the Islamic vote as no one of that religion is likely to vote for Trump.

It's a good move on Trump's part--appeals to his base--misogynists and women who are star-struck by rich men like him and want very much to believe he's not as bad as he seems towards women. It also makes a lot of voters wonder if Hilary has any support other than women. Just like the GOP tries to make voters think Obama hadn't any supporters other than African Americans.

[mainer]

30. Now checking the price of real estate in Nova Scotia...

before every American with a brain moves north and drives up the prices.

[Laser102]

31. Aside from straight, high school educated white men, who are the groups that will vote for the

orange sub human blob? Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, women, gays, well educated white people? Ha. I don't think he has the support these polls keep trying to convince us of. This is the same crap that was pulled when the media tried to convince us how close it was between Obama and Romney. They were sooooo wrong!!! Listen to Nate. When he says trump will win, then I'll believe it. My money is always on the geeks. Bless their hearts.

[whatthehey]

33. Still looking for anyone who'll bet on Trump. Any takers?

The "Clinton has no chance against Trump" crowd seems to have either slunk away or been kicked out after the primary was finished but there's an awful lot of people still radiating lots of genuine concern. Nobody willing to back it up yet though.

[RBInMaine]

34. Many other polls show her well ahead. This is HYPE BULLSHIT to sell papers and invent headlines.

[captainarizona]

35. polls show trends

They should be averaged out. Ban polls on du does not make them go away. Remember the democratic coalition contains not only strong Clinton supporters ;but also Bernie supporters who are luke warm to Clinton at best and many our still deciding.

[apnu]

38. National polls are meaningless.

They are meaningless to the POTUS in office, they are meaningless to Congress and they are meaning less to the SCOTUS. National polls are extra meaningless in a national election where we have an Electorial College. Its the state polls that matter, everything else is a distraction and concern troll fuel.

As a veteran of many campaigns, don't fall into that trap. Look at the state polls to get your polling itch scratched. Trust me.

[Thor_MN]

39. "a new survey that begins publication Friday,"

Wake me up when they have established a reputation.