Clinton's Lead Over Trump Shrinks Again In Weekly Tracking Poll

[DonViejo]

Source: TPM PollTracker

Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump decreased in the NBC News/Survey Monkey weekly tracking poll for the second week in a row, according to the poll released Tuesday morning.

Clinton now leads Trump by three points, 47-44, down from a five point lead over Trump in last week's tracking poll.

Clinton's drop in the poll coincides with the FBI's release of its findings from the probe into the former secretary of state's email use. The tracking poll found that 82 percent of voters thought it was inappropriate for Clinton to use the private server and 56 disagreed with the FBI's recommendation not to prosecute Clinton.

NBC News/Survey Monkey surveyed 7,869 adults who say they are registered voters online July 4-10 with a margin of error plus or minus 1.4 percentage points.

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Read more: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/clinton-lead-shrinks-nbc-tracking-poll

[Democrats Ascendant]

1. Considering how much invective Comey hurled at her....

That's pretty damned good. Plus, it's July. Plus, it's an online pole. By Surveymonkey.

[LenaBaby61]

4. It's too early for polling of any kind to be taken ULTRA seriously....

However...

ANYTIME I see that paid-polling outfit SurveyMonkey is involved, I tend to ignore that polling. Even if it showed Hillary Clinton up by 20 points, I'd still not give much weight to it.

[razorman]

22. I agree. I never heard of SurveyMonkey before, but

I do not put much stock in any election polls, particularly in the summer. A campaign should always work as if they are behind in the polls, right up to election day. The summer polls are simply not a good indicator of what will happen in November. Just ask President Dukakis.

[Andy823]

8. I don't trust online polls

I think we saw in the primaries just how easy it is manipulate the votes in online polls. Her numbers will go back up, and I am sure Trump will help with that during the GOP convention. The man just keeps on being an ass, and he can't stop.

[Blue Idaho]

2. When I read "SurveyMonkey" I think

Unscientific. Am I missing something?

[MohRokTah]

3. It uses a scientific method, but is completely limited to the internet.

It can easily be argued it is somewhat self selecting due to the methodology.

[Blue Idaho]

9. Thanks for the explanation

But in my book any "self selecting" poll is bogus as hell.

[Bradical79]

17. Pretty much

It may be as good as online polling gets, but it's still an inferior method, imo. Polling is difficult in 2016. Not many polls are really that useful on their own anymore, it's why Nate Silver's method tends to be the more reliable if one wants to understand how big/small of a lead a candidate has. I suppose individual polls can be useful in tailoring messages, planning strategy, looking at more narrow demographics...

[George II]

11. I know dozens of senior citizens, the large bloc that turns out to vote in big numbers, who don't...

...own computers and have never been online.

[progressoid]

7. fivethirtyeight gives them a C-

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[Night Watchman]

12. I Trust in Nate

[4lbs]

15. He's only been 98% accurate during the primaries and the past 3 general elections.

But, other than that.....

[StraightRazor]

19. I do too...

But I'm really responding because your signature line is A) beyond awesome and B) true as hell. Tough to give the Stars credit for winning the Cup without a large asterisk next to it.

[ehrnst]

5. About election year surveys:

Source: http://www.wnyc.org/story/breaking-news-consumers-handbook-election-polls-edition/

[PatSeg]

13. Thank you

Some solid advice.

[Mass]

6. A change of 2 points is pretty much meaningless with rounding errors to start with

Ex : 47.5-43.4 rounded to 48 - 43
47.4--43.5= 47 - 44

Not that it is what happened it (I do not know), simply it is ridiculous to say that a change of 2 point represent a shrinking when you do not know what created the difference, and also that early in the cycle.

[George II]

10. When national vote counts determine our President, this will be big news.....

...since the Electoral College determines the President, this is not a big story.

Right now, those who are in the business of predicting the results say that Clinton has a 76.8% chance of being elected, Trump only 23.2%. The current tally of Electoral Votes is 338-198, considered an Electoral Vote landslide.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

The Conventions haven't even happened yet, the formal nominations haven't happened yet, the General Election campaign isn't in full swing yet.

[apnu]

14. Bingo!

National polls are meaningless. They are meaningless in an election, they are meaningless when not.

[Cryptoad]

16. Nate calls: Bull Shit

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

[0rganism]

18. decent showing for Johnson there

2016 could be a breakout year for Libertarians, much to the GOP's chagrin

[sofa king]

20. For the uninitiated:

There is huge impetus from within the media and the polling agencies to "push" the gap closer in the convention month of general election years. It makes people watch more television news, buy more newspapers, and commission more surveys. The trailing candidate always experiences a pre- and post-convention surge of interest--some part of it real--from which these organizations strongly benefit.

Take a look at the second table on this page, which tracks polls between only Clinton/Gore and Dole/Kemp, keeping in mind that the Republican Convention was in mid-August that year. Note the nine-point "surge" Dole experienced, which was then "walked back" shortly thereafter:

http://library.law.columbia.edu/urlmirror/CLR/100CLR524/ptpreselec.html

The second table on the page below also shows a similar "surge" for McCain/Palin in early September, just after their convention but just before the disaster that was Palin began to sink in:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Note that by mid-September Republican shills Rassmussen were declaring it a dead heat. Then they "walked back" five points by the end of October.

There is no telling how much of this movement is real and how much of it is the media and the pollsters trying to shape the path of the herd like border collies, but the important thing to note is that the end result always changes, and it usually changes sharply in favor of the front-runner, almost as if most people never changed their minds at all from the end of July to election day.

That's not to say we have this in the bag, because election theft depends heavily upon this monkey business. No victory for Hillary Clinton will be complete if we cannot wrest at least the Senate--and if Trump keeps talking, maybe also the House--from Republican hands. Check your registrations and vote all-D down the line, and we ought to enjoy a pleasant surprise this November.

[JCMach1]

21. Internals of this poll are still showing a Trump disaster...

You can ignore the top number...

[GeorgeGist]

23. For full results and methodology, click here.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/%20https://www.scribd.com/document/318010091/NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Toplines-and-Methodology-7-4-7-10?secret_password=uu9HmWDKrTbLsOh182Gj


Good luck. I got an Error 404.

[geek tragedy]

24. going from 5 to 3 point lead is noise nt

[chelsea0011]

25. Hell, he'll come out of the Repuke Convention leading and then

after the Dem Convention down 15.

[chillfactor]

26. I find that hard to believe.....

online voters are not that reliable and I take this kind of polling with a grain of salt.

[CrowCityDem]

27. There hasn't been a poll yet with internals showing any good news for Trump.

[dubyadiprecession]

28. It's always better to be slightly ahead than slightly behind, at least your ahead.

John kerry was slightly behind bush in the polls in 2004 and look what happened to him.

[Doodley]

29. Polling is too tight for comfort.

The thoughts of a Republican winning is bad, but Trump winning is a terrifying prospect for the future of America, for peace and relations with other nations, and for the global environment.

Hillary Clinton needs to get further ahead.

[tonyt53]

30. Lay off the polls until after Labor Day. Right now they mean nothing.

Trump will have a bounce the week after the GOP convention. Bad thing for him is that a unified Democratic Party convention shortly after will let the air out of that bounce and send him deflating once again. However, some of this depends on just how much happens during the demonstrations and those participating want to go for.

[Ash_F]

31. Sanders just endorsed her. A big deal.

Let's see what happens.

[question everything]

32. And it will contiune during the convention

but since the Democratic convention follows immediately, we should expect Hillary to come ahead.

[MFM008]

33. thats nice.