Internet!!!
Having said that ... one of the things I watch are the running averages, going back to before Bush took office. If you look over that time period, the DOW stays basically flat, running between 10k and about 12k. Goes up some, goes back down some.
Then during the bubble, it ran up past 12k to 14k and stayed there for about 10 minutes. The 2000 point jump ABOVE the top of that prior average didn't make sense.
Then we had the collapse. Down through 12k, 11k, 10k, 9k, 8, 7k 6k. So that's clearly a panic. Basically, we dropped about 4k under the prior 10k average floor. That's an opportunity.
Obama gets the stimulus in place, and then within 10 months, we're back up to around 10k. And so there was a huge opportunity for those who had cash on the side lines (say you were taking gains as the down crossed above 12k, and 13k, and 14k, prior to the POP).
The collapse was so fast, not much room to play the average ... but even if you jumped back in (reinvested the gains you took between 12k and 14k) at 10k, and your time horizon was more than 2 or 3 years, you made money.
I have a friend who, in Jan 2009, decided to pump max his 401k as fast as possible. The DOW was about 7500 then. He and his wife are in their late 40s, no kids, work in high tech, strong salaries, and so maxing his 401k in those first few months of 2009 was not hard for them to do. They basically took 32k and about doubled it, just in that one maneuver.
The other thing I've noticed is that each summer since Obama took office, there has been a dire prediction each summer that the "double-dip" is here. Its not happening.
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