Trump closing gap with Clinton, poll shows

[EdwardBernays]

Source: The Hill

The NBC News/SurveyMonkey online tracking poll found that Clinton holds a 3-point lead over the presumptive GOP nominee. Last week, the same poll had Clinton ahead by 5 points.

The Democratic front-runner holds an overwhelming lead among black and Hispanic voters, while Trump is up among white voters by 14 points. She also leads him among female voters by 15 points, while Trump defeats her by 11 points among men.

The poll also found that Trump leads Clinton by 8 points among independent voters, 44 percent to 36 percent.

Recent surveys have signaled a tight race between Clinton and Trump as the primary season winds down. Last week, the two front-runners were neck and neck in three swing states and a national poll found Clinton leading by only 2 points.

Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/280124-trump-closing-gap-with-clinton-poll-shows

---

Losing the white vote, the male vote and the independent vote. Lead shrinking to close to the just a little more than twice the margin or error. And this is before Trump has launched a single national campaign ad or really done much more than blather on TV.

[PatrynXX]

19. I'm not shocked at all

If Bill Clinton calls Donald Trump early Last year and tells him not to run as it would ruin his chances of his wife winning. There had to be a reason for that call. Which is why anyone but another Clinton is what the people are fighting so darn hard for. If Elizabeth Warrent were running this woulda been all over. I think in some smaller way she did to the democrats as people assume Sarah Palin would run in 2012 did to the Republicans. What I am shocked about is how much the Clintons are alienating Bernie supporters should he not win. Primary season is NOT over. They are literally setting this up to a total mirror of 2012 and Mitt Romney totally blocking Ron Paul Supporters but 9 times worse it's sick and anti democratic.

[runaway hero]

33. Warren

Most Likely. But I think the phone call was for a different reason.

[beastie boy]

24. There are other, much more likely winning scenarios for Bernie.

1. Bernie wins 99% of California delegates and takes the delegate lead going into the convention.

2. Hillary gets indicted by the State Department for treason based on the FBI findings that she sold top secret emails to the Ayatollahs.

3. A meteorite penetrates the DNC headquarteers and strikes Hillary as she and DWS plot to install Trump as the next POTUS.

Either way, Bernie wins!

[KPN]

39. That would be interesting.

I think the only way that can really work is if the polls really do go significantly south for Hillary between now and then, AND if Bernie does a much better job of reaching out to the African American and Hispanic communities. He needs to speak to the racism/bigotry issues directly as opposed to obtusely by going back to his income inequality message. As one African American pointed out to me here at DU, "a rising tide hasn't lifted all boats" -- it certainly hasn't from WWII/Korea to the present. He absolutely has to do a much better job relating there!

[Cosmic Kitten]

2. 3 Points is a statistical tie with MoE

Hillary is TIED with Trump
given the MoE

[pnwmom]

7. No. This is a "non-probability" online poll and no margin of error can be calculated.

From the survey's methodology section:

Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error.

[EdwardBernays]

11. Anything that helps you sleep at night

How many polls will Clintonites have to see before they cop on?

[pnwmom]

13. I don't care how many self-selected online polls I see. They're all worthless. n/t

[bunchofpenguins]

27. Facts and reality are worthless to Clintonites.

n/t

[pnwmom]

29. Online, self-selected polls are toys and games, not facts and reality. nt

[Reiyuki]

40. Statistically useless, but not useless

Online polls can be used to gauge trends popularity or enthusiasm.

Did you know that in statistics, MOE means 'there is a 90% chance that we're somewhere in this curve'. Even the best polls are basically good guesses.


Do you think trend in this poll is accurate? Cuz I betcha an internet cookie the next national polls will reflect the same trend as this online one.

[pnwmom]

42. Among reputable pollsters, it means there is a 95% chance that the result in the

sampled population would fall within the margin of error.

But this "poll" wasn't produced with a probability sample so it can't make that claim or anything close to it.

[Reiyuki]

49. Think of it more as a 'differential poll'

It's a lot like an accelerometer or gyroscope. Not able to measure absolute position, but often a good way to measure changes in speed or direction.


Lets check back in a week and see if the national polls reflect this. If so, you should reconsider the merit of 'alternative' polls because they can still be useful measures, just not the kind we're used to.

[pnwmom]

44. I've never posted an online self-selected poll. n/t

[Reiyuki]

68. And here we are a week later..

Well lets see, in the past week we have Hillary dropping significant digits in:

ABC/Washington Post
NBC/Wall st Journal
Rasmussen
Fox News
CBS News
Gavis research
(according to this weeks RCP polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html)

Turns out this online poll wasn't so far off after all.


My point is: Even though online polls are poor indicators of total support, they can be VERY useful to gauge rapid swings in support ('differential' poll).



Just a helpful tip for future analysis

[olddad56]

47. I wish that they were worthless. they are an effective propaganda tool.

[pnwmom]

48. True. That is often confirmed here. n/t

[femmocrat]

3. How can this be happening after all the bad press he got last week?

Nothing seems to faze him. The more he is exposed, the better he does in the polls. I just don't get it.

[pnwmom]

14. It's an online, self-selected poll.

Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error.

[femmocrat]

46. That's good to know.

[George II]

4. When we choose our President in a "national" vote, this will mean something.

[pnwmom]

16. An online, self-selected poll still won't mean anything. n/t

[George II]

18. And it appears that more and more members of DEMOCRATIC Underground are rooting for Trump.

[FailureToCommunicate]

22. Oh just stop with this tiresome bullcr*p. Just because people here think your candidate is

the wrong one for the future of our country, and success in the general election, doesn't mean they (we) support Trump.

Give it a rest. It's an embarrassment.

[George II]

25. Then what is the point of almost "gloating" over polls, as inaccurate as they are, that show....

...that Trump is "closing the gap" on Clinton? What is that going to accomplish?

We seem to be seeing this more and more by the day. Is here a point to all of this?

[KPN]

45. Come on man. Lighten up -- it's just hope on the part of Bernie supporters

that his candidacy has a chance. I'm a Bernie supporter and I believe that Bernie has the best chance of all three candidates to win the GE. So I hope he gets the nomination. Perhaps it can only happen this way.

[bunchofpenguins]

28. You know there are more than two candidates, running, right?

Not supporting Clinton doesn't mean you automatically support Trump.

[MariaThinks]

37. yes they are.

[Democat]

56. Disgusting how many people are here to bash Democrats

Bashing either Sanders or Clinton outside of the Primaries forum should be against the rules.

This site is full of pro-Trump trolls right now.

[bunchofpenguins]

64. A pro war, pro Wall Street, pro TPP candidate is not a Democrat.

n/t

[yallerdawg]

5. The Republicans have their nominee. The one.

Democrats will have ours very soon.

Then the national polls may start to mean something!

[pnwmom]

6. This is a "non-probability" survey with self-selected online participants.No margin of error applies

From the poll's methodology section:

Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error.

[pnwmom]

17. I'm replying to individual people who may or may not ever come back to the thread. n/t

[MariaThinks]

38. good for you. someone posts a bogus poll and people complain that this is pointed out.

i never thought I would see this much hypocrisy on the left (nader nonwithstanding)

[LibDemAlways]

8. I hope the super delegates are paying attention. The

Dems can't afford to put up our weakest candidate against Trump. It doesn't matter how much the party establishment loves Hillary or how much they think she is owed. This is not a beauty contest. It's serious business. Hillary, with all of her negatives, would have a hell of a time beating Trump, and that's all that should matter.

[pnwmom]

12. Why should they pay attention to any self-selected poll?

Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error.

[Maeve]

9. On-line, self-selected poll?

That's trash.

[pnwmom]

10. Right. It's just a parlor game. nt

[dorkzilla]

21. Well, Edward, I may end up.your neighbor quicker than I thought

And not just for the summer...

[DesMoinesDem]

23. Hillary will lose.

[beastie boy]

30. Pigs will fly.

[runaway hero]

34. She won't

But she could have done a better job. After what happened in 2008, I thought there would be changes. I guess not. She'll win but she'll make it closer then it will be. She better go hard at Trump and make the difference clear.

[Democat]

57. More trolls hoping that Trump wins

The DU admins are doing nothing to stop the Democrat bashing.

[Javaman]

59. yeah...that must be it...

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

61. Just like Obama did and now we have President Rmoney.

Right?

[DesMoinesDem]

63. No, I never thought Obama would lose.

Obama is a likable person. Hillary is an extremely unlikable person. Plus she is corrupt and has a history of horrible positions and actions. She will lose.

[Itchinjim]

26. Sock puppet.

[floriduck]

31. No surprise here. She's headed for a lifetime embarrassing loss.

[runaway hero]

35. She won't lose

It's just that she won't get a blowout, which is the fault of her campaign.

[BlueLouisville]

32. Mitt Romney and the GOP...

didn't trust the polls either.

[Maeve]

36. Actually, they did

Their own, self-selected polls that had about this much validity

[BlueLouisville]

66. I'm talking about mainstream polls

You know the ones that show Trump surging right now and every poll that shows Sanders beating Trump by a wider margin than Clinton. This poll may or may not be garbage.

[TwilightZone]

41. "online tracking poll"

Anyone with any understanding of online polls should have stopped taking it the results seriously as soon as that was said.

[secondwind]

50. Imho, Hillary is a weak candidate... and it is showing

[Laser102]

51. Weak? She's withstood attacks for the past thirty years and she is still standing. Indestructible.

[Kittycat]

52. I would throw ideology out the window this year.

How I would change up the questioning for polling purposes:

1. Add the Green Party in to tracking
2. Ask if they voted in the primary, and if yes who.
2a. If they did vote, who are they supporting now and break that subgroup out by R, D & I today.
-- That number is especially important for indies, because it has risen through the primary season showing greater discord, despite record turnout for Indies at the polls. That is your harbinger of good/bad.

And if all that data is there, wonderful! I didn't see it in the summary article I read. But I'd love to reference it.

[gwheezie]

53. I did a poll at work

Everyone is voting for Hillary. Not even the Republicans are voting for trump.

[Andy823]

54. Another online poll that doesn't mean shit

Don't you guys ever give up? Do you real think you are helping Bernie win by coming her to post crap about Clinton? Do you really think you have convinced anyone here who was not already for Bernie to jump on his band wagon?

[Ohio Joe]

60. Trump humping with online polls should be a pizza - nt

[PSPS]

62. Sorry, but this isn't a real poll. The silly story was written only to generate click$.

[titaniumsalute]

65. Trump Vs Clinton...like being the tallest midget

[silvershadow]

67. I hope the Superdelegagtes are paying attention. nt