Beijing says North Korea has become ‘an increasing threat to China’

[MowCowWhoHow III]

Source: South China Morning Post

North Korea has become an increasing threat to China, according to a commentary by the state-run People’s Daily overseas edition, which compared the Korean peninsula’s instability with Syria’s political turmoil.

An opinion piece in the newspaper’s Xiakedao column on Thursday said it was time for North Korea to rethink its nuclear weapon strategy as it might eventually jeopardise Pyongyang’s political regime.

It also said ties between Pyongyang and Beijing had worsened, especially since China’s Ministry of Commerce rolled out sanctions supporting the United Nation’s call to stop imports of iron, coal, ironstone, gold, titanium and rare earth and halt exports of a range of products, including jet fuel, to North Korea. These moves are likely to have an impact on Pyongyang within six months or a year.

The UN sanctions aim to starve North Korea of funding for its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes after Pyongyang conducted a fourth nuclear test in January and launched a long-range rocket in February.

Read more: http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1934185/beijing-says-north-korea-has-become-increasing-threat

[DavidDvorkin]

1. Not to mention an increasing embarrassment

It would take some years to adjust and recover, but a unified Korea on the S. Korean model would make a terrific and convenient trading partner and source of investment for China.

[davidpdx]

6. Yes, a unified Korea would be 100 times harder than West/East Germany was 25 years ago

Their infrastructure outside Pyeongyang is terrible. I know that the South Koreans would be very nervous if that were to ever happen because it means they would have to foot most of the bill. The Koreans have pulled off an economic miracle once though.

[Xolodno]

8. That is probably the ultimate weapon North Korea has.

To unify, even if they do raid all the secret slush funds the Kim's have stored away and even if China did help out considerably....its going to be one nasty economic bite.

The easy way for this would be to do this gradually. Government moderate their policies, include more South Korean cooperation. Which is what Kim may have killed his uncle for. Because that would eventually spell the end of the Kim dynasty and re-write history, showing the murderous tyrants for what they are.

Hence, Kim is going hang on at all costs...and may be even paranoid about it.

[davidpdx]

9. I agree that reunification would have to be done gradually

Preventing a mass exodus of North Koreans into China would put a large burden on them. China would have to put a lot of resources into guarding their border. China and the US would both have to chip in money to help with the reunification.

I think they would have to have an interim government for awhile that continued to operate separately from South Korea, but at the same time coordinate specific functions. It could take a year or more just to go through and figure out all the problems that need to be taken care of and prioritize them.

Recently I saw a poll done here in South Korea that said something like 25% of young people said that they would be willing to go to North Korea to help if the regime ever fell. That is encouraging given the apathy among Koreans about North Korea in general.

Edit: Found the article it was 25% not 40%. Also added the link:

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/03/116_201456.html

[Bernardo de La Paz]

2. I think this might later be seen as a turning point. . . nt

[FLPanhandle]

3. That editorial is a "shot across the bow" to North Korea.

Will they be smart enough and/or sane enough to take heed?

[davidpdx]

5. You are dead on right about that

China has been fed up with North Korea for a long time and their latest antics have finally done themselves in. It has taken a long time to get China on board. Now that they are, North Korea is going to lose a lot of the export market.

[Angel Martin]

4. Is this article ever a good find !

but, the more I read it, the more I am not sure what it means.

At first, I read it as a "go" signal for a coup to get rid of Kim il Sung, and get some more rational leadership in there. The suggestion is that staying with the current missile and nuclear policy means China won't back Kim, even if the regime collapses.

That ought to be enough to get the message across.

But then the Chinese editorial goes on to say that N Korea's threats of war are rhetorical, that it has no intention or capability of fighting a war.

This takes it well beyond getting rid of Kim, and puts any successor N Korea regime at risk. China is, in effect signalling to the USA and S Korea, "go ahead and attack, these guys are not capable of sustaining a war".

The consequence of this is that Kim is liable to do something especially crazy, to show that N Korea is in fact ready for war. And his generals should back him on that, because they all have a stake in N Korea military deterrence being credible.

does China even know what it is doing here ?

[dembotoz]

7. china needs to focus on its economy and north korea could screw things up for them

if nk does something really stupid

[davidpdx]

10. Exactly

China use to have a strong influence over North Korea and that has disappeared. North Korea has been sucking up to the Russians lately. Russia may not care as much that North Korea is a time bomb waiting to happen even though they share a small border. I think if North Korea crosses the line, China will have no choice but to intervene. That may include overthrowing Kim Jong Um.