Wisconsin Exit Poll Results: One in Three GOP Voters Would Abandon Party if Cruz or Trump is Nominee

[IDemo]

Source: NBC News

Amid fierce clashes between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, one out of three Republicans voting in Wisconsin said they would abandon the party if either candidate is the ultimate nominee, according to early results from the NBC News Exit Poll.

When asked what they would do if Cruz were the GOP nominee in November, only 65 percent of Wisconsin Republicans said they'd vote for him. The remainder instead would vote for a third-party candidate (18 percent), vote for Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton (7 percent) or not vote at all (6 percent).

The numbers got slightly worse for the Republican Party when voters were asked to consider Trump as the GOP nominee. Just 61 percent said they'd vote for the brash businessman, with the rest defecting to a third party (16 percent) or to Clinton (10 percent)—or simply staying home (9 percent).

Wisconsin has long been a swing state in the nation's presidential elections, but these numbers suggest the party may have substantial difficulty staying competitive with the Democrats in the Badger State this November.

Read more: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/wisconsin-exit-poll-results-one-three-gop-voters-would-abandon-n551326

[Jack Rabbit]

1. See, guys, there are some sober conservatives left in the GOP

After six years of the tyrants Dave and Charlie Koch and their stooge Scott Walker, none of whom are sober conservatives, I can see why a significant number of Republicans are ready to bolt the party.

[leftynyc]

25. Except it seems

they (the republicans) would be open to a "new" face. The kochs want Paul Ryan to play white horse. I haven't heard of any other name being mentioned.

[elljay]

36. I don't believe them

for a second. They say this now, because Trump and Cruz are just so embarrassing. However, when push comes to shove and in the privacy of the voting booth, most of them will fall in line and vote against their interests once again.

[HassleCat]

2. Moderate Republicans are extinct

In terms of candidates and elected officials. But many Republican voters long for the days when they didn't have to choose between a Democrat and an alien life form.

[daleanime]

13. I'm just thank to finally have a candidate that I can vote for....

And not only be voting against.

[beac]

26. Not entirely extinct. And possibly evolving...

I have a cousin who is one. Straight-up checkbook Republican. Rarely see him but did at Easter. He lives in VA. He was disgusted by all of the Republican candidates and feels it is one's civic duty to vote. So in the VA primary he voted for....

Bernie Sanders!

He said if Hillary is the nominee, he'll write in "someone else" in the general.

I was stunned. As I said, this guy usually only cares about paying lower taxes. He's fine with gay marriage, abortion, etc. (and YES, I have a HUGE problem with him caring more about his wallet that other people's rights.) The ONLY candidate he'd vote for in 2016 is the one who will raise his taxes the most.

"Every other candidate is too corrupt."

[roguevalley]

8. any vote not cast on their side is a vote for Bernie.

[TeamPooka]

4. THIS Now GOTV!

[silvershadow]

5. Music to my ears. nt

[Odin2005]

6. This must be why Hillary is pandering to anti-choice bigots.

[Hydra]

11. I'm sure she thinks she can peel some of them off

And she may be able to...but many of those people are loons. Building any kind of base off that is impossible, so one term at most.

[silvershadow]

12. She has to go there for votes, since she isn't getting enough from her adopted party. nt

[LovingA2andMI]

14. "Adopted Party"

[silvershadow]

16. That's how I refer to all of the Third Wayers now. Because as far as I'm concerned, if they don't

like the party, THEY need to leave, not me.

[PSPS]

7. Clever how they didn't include Bernie in the possible choices.

[ViseGrip]

40. Exactly....the numbers go up for him there....just like 70% of indies in WI

[Feeling the Bern]

9. Schism coming. Just watch. This year's GOP convention will be a bloodbath

And it will be so entertaining watching them eat themselves.

[jwirr]

29. Their convention and to some extent ours are full of back

room decisions and what we see on tv is a well planned show. I haven't seen a real convention for decades.

[Cosmocat]

34. And, IMO, this poll does not touch on an even worse scenario

for the Rs.

Trump and Cruz are accumulating like 90% of the votes, states and delegates.

If neither get the nomination, there will be an even greater amount of people who voted for them who will feel that that their candidate got ripped off and will potentially walk away from the party for a LONG time.

Trump voters in particular, because that is stupid on steriods, and he won't take it well, either.

[elljay]

37. Rule 40- this is important!

Rule 40 is the current rule for the Republican Convention that requires candidates to have won at least 8 states to be on the ballot.

“Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.”

The Rules Committee will be meeting prior to the convention to review/change convention rules. Both Trump and Cruz have won more than 8 states and both have operatives on this committee and will be firmly opposed to changing or eliminating Rule 40. Why? Because it means that Kasich will not be eligible to be on the first ballot. For later ballots, a new candidate such as Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney would have to line up a majority of delegates in 8 states which means, basically, that Trump or Cruz delegates would have to defect in large numbers. There is no way they can do this secretly as it only takes one delegate who refuses to change support to spill the beans. This will cause Trump and Cruz to go ballistic and, perhaps, even unite in some fashion against the newcomer.

If the committee does change Rule 40, Trump will have his supporters on high alert for the promised riots.

If we thought this election was already historically bizarre, we have not yet scratched the surface!


https://medium.com/delve-in/the-rule-40-horsemen-of-the-gop-apocalypse-a660d381e36e#.u4b2iovt4

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-cruz-work-block-kasich-ballot-open-convention-n549996

[scottie55]

10. God I Never Knew I Had So Much In Common With Republicans

I learn something every day.

If Cruz, or Trump were my party's candidate, I would leave too!

And to think, all the other Republican candidates were only 99.99999% shit.

[rockfordfile]

15. Don't buy it.

The Wisconsin republicans just voted for one of the snakes.

[Geronimoe]

17. So if Bernie doesn't get the nominaton

He runs as an independent. Gets all the independents, 18% of the Republicans (possibly more) and 40% of Democrats (possibly more). He thus becomes the President.

Pretty easy math.

[Sunlei]

21. Sanders would never run as independent and split the D party vote.

[groundloop]

27. Bernie has already stated that he will NOT run as independent

because it would risk putting a lunatic in the White House. And I take him at his word on that. (I'd much prefer to see him run as the Democratic nominee).

[jwirr]

30. I don't think Bernie would break his word. BUT you could

be right about what would happen if he did.

[silvershadow]

18. So Hillary DOES have a chance...

[Beartracks]

19. An Okie Repub on the radio today said she'd take a vomit bucket to the polls...

... if Trump is their nominee, but she'd still vote for him specifically because she does not want Hillary to be President.

Wow, that's party loyalty!

I think she was a Cruz delegate.

=================

[Sunlei]

20. don't believe republicans, they kept their conman Walker in power.

con man



noun
informal

noun: conman




a man who cheats or tricks someone by means of a confidence game.

[SomeGuyInEagan]

23. I agree ... by the GE, many will be back in line ...

... Supporting whatever candidate is served up with an R. In Wisconsin, particularly, where they have seen firsthand the quick and horrible damage that a cheif exec can foist upon the lives of the people BUT RETURN HIM TO OFFICE twice .... sorry, just not buying that 33% have now figured it out.

Especially if it is against Clinton. The machine will whip them into an even more horrible frenzy than we saw against Bill Clinton or Barrack Obama. Out of dislike of the Clintons after 25 years of attacking them, out of sexism, out of fear and frustration. What is left of their base are the rabid loyal.

[Cosmocat]

35. IMO

The biggest hit they would take is from trump voters if they take the nomination from him.

First, anyone supporting him is stupid on steroids.
Second, he won't take it well at all.

I know a lot of them, and many are pretty strident they will not vote R again if they take it from him.

Also, if they give it to someone other than him AND Cruz, they won't lose as many, but will lose a lot of Cruz voters, too.

It will be worse than just going with Trump and it will last longer.

IMO.

[elljay]

38. Agreed, but with one caution

We all know that Trump is able to change positions and directions on a dime. As he frequently reminds us, he is a businessman who knows how to make a deal. If the Republican Party is able to cut some form of deal with him, he will immediately pivot to supporting Cruz or other Republican candidate and instruct his robotic followers to do so, too. With the amount of money available to the Republican Party, I'm sure they can find a way to make this work.

[JDPriestly]

22. Typical NBC partisanship. No question about how many would defect to Bernie, and I bet it

would be quite a few.

[AxionExcel]

24. Only 1 in 3? Is that all?

Have they no honor? Have they no decency?

Wait, I forgot. We are talking about the party that twice elected an AWOL dilettante plutocrat torture-freak.

[Reter]

28. That poll was BS

Otherwise Kasich would have gotten 40%. In the only poll that matters (last night's election), Cruz and Trump got 83.3%.

[freebrew]

31. They've got nothing...

no one. There isn't a decent repub politician left, if there ever were any.

I really can't figure how they get anywhere near 50% of the vote(see: BradBlog).

The last(any number will do) election cycles, the R candidate(s) had a collective IQ under 100.

Paul Ryan is the 'smart one' so go figure.

[TryLogic]

32. I sure would like to see a survey of Independents nationwide if given a choice among

all four -- Bernie, Hillary, Trump, and Cruz.

[Javaman]

33. what are that that "3rd" waiting for?

it will be dump regardless of the clown show the Repub convention devolves into.

are they waiting for the koch brothers magical pony? aka ryan?

it's like children at a candy store waiting for it to open on a national holiday, they just don't get it.

[dbackjon]

39. Funny - the local news gabber only mentioned the Trump part - was silent on the dislike for Cruz

[pressbox69]

41. It's nice to see republican voters

show common sense about something.