Juncker Says Ukraine Not Likely To Join EU, NATO For 20-25 Years

[Purveyor]

Source: RadioFreeEurope

It will take Ukraine at least 20 to 25 years to join the European Union and NATO, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said March 3.

"Ukraine will definitely not be able to become a member of the EU in the next 20 to 25 years, and not of NATO either," he said in a speech at The Hague.

While Juncker did not explain why Ukraine would have to wait so long, his speech was aimed at reassuring Dutch voters that this year's free-trade agreement between Ukraine and the EU was not a first step toward quickly joining the European Union.

Despite his prediction, the EU has been paving the way for visa-free travel to the bloc for Ukrainian citizens while providing Kyiv with a generous $40 billion bailout along with the United States and the International Monetary Fund to help it maintain economic stability amid a war with Russia-backed separatists.

Read more: http://www.rferl.org/content/juncker-says-ukraine-not-likely-join-eu-nato-for-20-25-years/27588682.html

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Thems some mighty green bananas you're pushing there Juncker... EU-NATO???=25yrs?

[SheilaT]

1. I will up front say I don't know that much about the Ukraine.

But I do recall, back in November, December of 1989, all the experts assuring us that there was no way on God's green earth that the two Germanies could possibly unite in less than 10, maybe 15, most likely 15 years. Anyone want to give the date of Reunification?

Oh, and by the way, our amazing intelligence service didn't begin to get the fall of the Soviet Union or the collapse of the Berlin Wall either.

As I recall, a book was published in the middle of 1989 about the Berlin Wall, which essentially said it would be there forever. Sometimes the experts haven't a clue.

[braddy]

2. I was in NATO and left the military in 1986.

I of course followed events and the news and don't remember it being quite like that, especially since we had worked so hard and invested so much into what we accomplished and everything was so delicately balanced in a complicated military chess game. We did that, it didn't happen accidently.

Things happened quickly once the breakdown of the USSR started and the speed was surprising for perhaps weeks but when one is deeply involved and watching troop and assets movements and is measuring the rapid loss of the ability of the Soviets to reform their invasion capabilities, and their loss of control of the slave armies, then the big picture started unfolding pretty quickly.

I do know that the economics and administrative details were complicated for the bureaucrats and hugely costly for the free Germans.

[SheilaT]

3. Thank you for your insight.

In April, 1989, on a family trip to Ireland, when things were beginning to spring loose in Eastern Europe, we (those of us on that family trip) questioned our brother, who was pretty savvy, and who had been stationed in Berlin in 1962-63. He had a good grasp on the geopolitics, but like so many people he missed a lot. My personal favorite is that East Germany held a celebration of the fifty years of that country in 1989. Hardly anyone showed up to that celebration. A few weeks later the Berlin Wall fell, the two Germanies came together again, and in October, 1990, the two countries officially reunited. I recall quite distinctly that in the first weeks after the collapse of the Wall, many pundits proclaimed that it would be years at best before the two countries could reunite.

My basic point is that political events often happen very quickly, much faster than the experts think. More to the point, our intelligence service totally missed the breakdown of Communism.

[braddy]

4. Yep, and since I am not interested in economics I

don't pay much attention to them but everyone else does, and reunification was all about the economics, the military stuff was of little interest to anyone, so the economists had many dark, long term projections about how long it would take for the East to cease being a burden and a drain on the free German economy, pensions, benefits, building codes, all kinds of real life issues about GNP, unemployment, social services, and so on and so on.

[Bad Dog]

5. The problem that bedevils the EU is the same one that caused Charlemagne such problems.

That of a wealthier North(West) and a poorer South (East). Now it wasn't too much of a problem right at the beginning when poorer countries like Spain, Portugal and Greece could be more easily accommodated. Immigration wasn't a pressing issue, but since countries from the former Warsaw pact have joined immigration from Eastern Europe has been a lot more pronounced. Let's face it, it's the real reason we're having a referendum in the UK regardless of how the No Campaign tries to spin it.

People will always move to where there's more opportunity/money, it's human nature. Now we've got the refugee crisis and unrest in Ukraine. The Germans and French have kept the Turks out of the EU for yonks so I can't see Ukraine joining anytime soon, or Serbia for that matter. NATO is another point, if Ukraine was in NATO we'd all be obliged to join in with the conflict between Russia, and I don't think anyone wants that.

It will be a while before politically and economically Europe is willing to grant Ukraine membership. Maybe not as long as 25 years, but certainly not for the next ten years at least.

[T_i_B]

7. I think it's more Greece keeping Turkey out of the EU

Cyprus being the bone of contention.

[Bad Dog]

9. They do have a rather large axe to grind.

But both France and Germany would prefer "priviledged partnership" as opposed to full membership.

[FLPanhandle]

6. All said to keep Putin from taking over the Ukraine

If Putin thought the Ukraine was about to join NATO, he'd just take over completely.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

8. Who was that idiot that Hillary had there in Europe,

dissing euro allies and pushing for a NATO war in Ukraine? She was and is a neocon and her husband was worse. Kagan was his name, I think?

Hillary made this region far less stable and she gave Obama horrible advice.

Victoria Nuland - that moron and friend of Hill.