CNN poll: Post-debate, voters move to Clinton

[riversedge]

Source: cnn




CNN poll: Post-debate, voters move to Clinton

By Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Polling Director

Updated 6:00 PM ET, Wed December 23, 2015 | Video Source: CNN

Story highlights

Hillary Clinton continues to hold a big lead over Sanders
Voters liked what they saw from Clinton in the Democrats' most recent debate


Washington (CNN)Hillary Clinton maintains a commanding lead in a new CNN/ORC poll, boosted by broader support in the days after the latest debate between the remaining three Democratic presidential candidates.

Overall, Clinton tops Sanders among registered voters who are Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents 50% to 34%. That's a slightly tighter margin than in late-November, when Clinton led 58% to 30% over Sanders.

....................
The Sanders campaign focuses heavily on economic issues, and the new poll suggests he has boosted his standing on that issue. Yet Sanders continues to trail Clinton as the candidate better able to handle economic issues, 47% say they think Clinton is best able to handle it, 39% Sanders.

The former secretary of state has even larger leads on foreign policy matters and ISIS, however, topping Sanders 72% to 15% on foreign policy, 63% to 18% on ISIS. Clinton also holds a 21-point advantage over Sanders on handling gun policy, 51% prefer Clinton vs. 30% Sanders...................


Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/23/politics/cnn-orc-poll-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders/

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[JackInGreen]

2. Oh phantom dennis, no one can see you to begin with, why fear the hide?

Ok, ok, that was just an Angel joke.
But on a more real note.....Berners may not agree, but do you think we'd try and hide it?

[underthematrix]

3. I didm't see the first two debates but the 3rd debate

persuaded me that HRC is the MOST qualified candidate and so me and my family will vote for her in the primary. I thought her foreign policy made it clear she has the best understanding of the complexity of our foreign policy issues and challenges. I also liked that she is willing to work with everyone on economic and social issues. She has a very mature understanding of the role of the presidency in national and global politics.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

5. Really? Considering this?

For Democrats, Debate Night Means Being Quizzed From the Right by Corporate Media

<snip>

The drone war was ignored by the moderators, as were civilian casualties. The disastrous consequences of the Libyan intervention that Clinton presided over was brought up at one point, but the premise of the question was that Clinton “should have done more to fill the leadership vacuum left behind”—not that the secretary of State shouldn’t have been using military force to overthrow governments she disliked.

Even though the world’s leaders had reached a landmark climate change just a week before the debate, “climate change” and “global warming” didn’t pass the moderators’ lips.

ABC News‘ approach to domestic issues was not much different. Raddatz pressed on the cost of a single-payer healthcare plan–“Can you tell us specifically how much people will be expected to pay?”—and on his plan to make public colleges tuition-free: “How does that really lower the cost other than just shifting the cost to taxpayers?” She tried to get Clinton and O’Malley to promise not to raise takes on households making $250,000 or less—in other words, families who make more than 97 percent of the country.

http://fair.org/home/for-democrats-debate-night-means-being-quizzed-from-the-right-by-corporate-media/

[underthematrix]

8. I thought the Libyan strategy was a collaborative effort with

European and Middle Eastern partners HRC: All of these are very difficult issues. I know that; I've been dealing with them for a long time. And, of course, we have to continue to do what is necessary when someone like Gadhafi, a despot with American blood on his hands, is overturned. But I'll tell you what would have happened, if we had not joined with our European partners and our Arab partners to assist the people in Libya, you would be looking at Syria. Now the Libyans are turning their attention to try to dislodge ISIS from its foothold and begin to try to move together to have a unified nation."

These are sovereign nations just like the US. WE would not allow Syria to come to the United States to stop local police departments from killing unarmed black men. The entire ME and Europe may be appalled by the killing of unarmed black men and women but they are not going to invade the US to stop the problem. I find it amazing that so many people talk about Asian, ME, and African nations as if they are colonial subjects rather than sovereign nations. I find that disturbing.

HRC recognizes the complexity foreign policy making especially when it intersects with our national security interests. During the debate, the two words HRC used that were so powerful are "complex" and "difficult." I want someone who starts with these two assumptions; complex and difficult before they tell me what they can do differently.

[PosterChild]

17. This is exactly right....

..... these issues are complex, the best course of action is not always clear and evident, and situational flexibility is required.

The one-size-fits-all approach may be emotionally satisfying and give a comforting illusion of compatency and control, but it doesn't work.

[EndElectoral]

22. This was one of Bush's arguments for invading Iraq.

[underthematrix]

44. I think it has been established Bush

lied the Congress into the war with Iraq. Invasion of Iraq was a US action. reluctant partners joined later and the US used the same false data to manipulate them into joining us in the Iraq invasion.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

28. Regardless, point being the MSM is not asking the kinds of questions we need....

This is OUR primary and yet they're spewing Right Wing nonsense.

This is something we see on Sunday Talk where the typical formula is to assemble a panel of conservative republicans with a token liberal who's supposed to agree with the others. If they ever DO have an actual member of the Obama administration on it's through a remote feed and after pummeling them with the latest right-wing charges they cut them off and then turn to their panel to discredit them.

[underthematrix]

45. I don't watch any of the cable news outlets

[Spitfire of ATJ]

46. It was network TV.

[underthematrix]

48. I see what you mean. you are speaking of shows like Meet the Press.

I don't watch those shows. I already know they are extremely jealous of the President. I get my news from the Obama Diary and whitehouse.gov. Those shows are PSYOPS tools designed to manipulate you into FEELING a particular way about a person or event. I don't watch segments on HRC, Sanders or O'Malley. All that I've seen so far is the third DEM debate. i prefer to reasd.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

50. I get more in five minutes of reading than any show can present in an hour.

[underthematrix]

60. That's my my feeling too. The MSM tries to shape the narrative without providing all the facts.

I see them doing this to both Sanders and HRC.

[EndElectoral]

19. So you are in favor of military regime change in Syria?

[underthematrix]

59. President Obama just a few days ago talked about a POLITICAL solution

which would involve Assad stepping down at some point. However, the situation in Syria is very complicated and HRC's response made it clear that she understood that. Syria is not a US territory but a sovereign nation just like the US.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

4. Did they poll cell phones this time?

[PosterChild]

18. Yes, and reputable polls, such as this one, always do. eom

[Spitfire of ATJ]

24. I read that it's illegal for polling firms to call cell phones.

[getagrip_already]

26. not unless..

you have registered with the national do not call db, which many, many, people do.

Others simply don't answer calls from people they don't know.

So calling cell phones is ok, but statisticians are far from in agreement on how accurate any of the sampling pools are (even the on the first tuesday in november).

Remember, polls are only an indication. Votes are the data.

No matter what side you are on, take any poll as a soft indicator. Much better than nothing, but not a set-in-stone result.

It makes me shake my head when people look at polling numbers and equate those with actual vote results...

Sorry, just strayed off topic for a bit. Apologies if most of that didn't apply to your question.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

30. I mean according to the telecommunications act of '93....

That's why we keep hearing that young people don't vote.

BTW: Do the math. This next presidential election will have first time voters who were born during Bill Clinton's SECOND term.

Most of them have never owned a landline.

[PosterChild]

58. The reason we keep hearing that young people don't vote is because...

..... they don't vote. They don't even register to vote. You can stand put side the polling places and confirm that using an exit poll, no cell phones reqired.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

63. The polls say that. Right?

[PosterChild]

64. I don't think it's strictly a polling qustion, it's more of a...

.... political science / sociological research topic that is useful to those who do polls. It would be observed in voter registration file and confirmed by exit polls at the polling place where selection bias based on Telcom usage would not be an issue . If you come out of the polling place and they ask you your age, it's pretty much certain you weren't overlooked because you don't have a land line.

[PosterChild]

65. Here is a Census Bureau study that examines this question....

.... it uses data from the general population survey and goes back to 1964. Has some suprising information. The last few pages address methodology .

https://www.census.gov/prod/2014pubs/p20-573.pdf

[Spitfire of ATJ]

67. When young people vote the Republicans lose....

So why isn't the DNC out there,....oh wait....

.........never mind.

[PosterChild]

57. My understanding is that the do not call list...

...grants excetuons for public opinion surveys and charitable organizations.

[PosterChild]

55. Not true, the law require that ceĺl numbers....

... be hand dialed, as opposed to using an automated dialer. This increases the expense, but is not a prohibition.

The methodology section of this poll's detailed results gives the breakdown of cell to land line.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

56. One thing they used to do was call 50% rural and 50% urban and report a 50/50 result.

[Tiggeroshii]

6. So losing 12% to your opponent means voters are moving to you?

[MJJP21]

7. CNN?

Didn't those letters used to stand for Clinton News Network?

[McCamy Taylor]

12. They did...over at the Free Republic.

[BlueCaliDem]

52. Exactly. Odd that a newbie would use it here at Democratic Underground.

[BlueCaliDem]

53. According to Republicans, yes. Where did you hear it? eom

[Betty Karlson]

9. Mind you, she lost 8 percentage points among her core supporters: registered democrats.

How CNN spins this as a move TO Clinton is mindblowingly strange.

[pnwmom]

10. No, she didn't. Not by the last two days. Her support went UP after the debates.

That's how CNN "spins" it as a move to Clinton. Her support in the days after the debate was 15 points higher than in the days before.

[JonLeibowitz]

27. I don't see that data in the CNN Poll PDF.

Any actual source on the information, so we can check methodology?

[pnwmom]

33. Same methodology as the overall poll. I read somewhere yesterday that

there were two days of polling before the debate and two days afterward. Other than that I haven't heard details.

But with a 15 point swing -- just for Hillary -- that should more than take care of the MOE.

[JonLeibowitz]

34. Assuming that it was a representative sample polled overnight. That has never been claimed or proven

[pnwmom]

35. Of course it's a representative sample. It was the same ORC study,

just reported in two-day chunks. The overall study reported its methodology.

I'm not sure what you mean by "polled overnight."

[JonLeibowitz]

36. Nope. A subsample is not always a representative sample.

See also: a subsample of the poll consisting entirely of male respondents.

[pnwmom]

37. But random studies are random. They don't poll all males on the first

two days and all females on the second.

They used the same random method sampling throughout the 4 days, so the question is, what is the MOE of error for the new smaller (approximately 200) sample size.

[JonLeibowitz]

38. How do you know that they used same methodology each day? Please defend your assertion.

Truth is we have no idea how they collect respondents. We do not know that the same sampling method is used each day.

[pnwmom]

39. They couldn't say their WHOLE poll was random sampled

if they used different methods on different days. If you don't understand what a random sample is, I can't help you.

The only reason they can report a specific "sampling error" is that they took a random sample, every day, using the same methods. But the sampling error reported for the 414 (Democrats/leaners) is lower than the sampling error would be for a sample half as big (the overall sample divided into 2, 2-day halves.)

BASED ON 300 REGISTERED VOTERS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS DEMOCRATS AND 114 WHO DESCRIBED THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN DEMOCRATIC, FOR A TOTAL OF 414 REGISTERED DEMOCRATS-- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 5% PTS.

[JonLeibowitz]

40. I do understand random sampling, thanks. But if you have no sources on subsample methodology,

I cannot help you; there is no scientific basis to examine the claim that Hillary led after the debate.

You absolutely can poll different groups on different days and get an overall representative sample when the results are compiled. They may not do this, but I have not seen a single source stating that this is a representative sample.

Qualifications: undergraduate and graduate courses in mathematical statistics, M.S. in mathematics.

[pnwmom]

41. You can call ORC and ask them. Or you can simply wait and see what

future polls say.

That's what I'm going to do. In the meantime, I'm assuming that CNN is reporting accurately on what ORC told them.

http://orcinternational.com

[JonLeibowitz]

42. I don't doubt that CNN is accurately reporting.

What I question is whether ORC's subsample is representative. And that is not at all clear.

I may indeed end up calling ORC.

[PosterChild]

20. They are trying to make this the poll relevent to the debate , BUT...

... it's a stretch. They segregated the responses into those made before and after the debate . However, there is no indication of how they selected the order in which they contacted folks, no indication of what the sample sizes were before and after the debate and no indication of what the margins of error might be for the two subgroups. And no indication of whether or not the respondents listened to the debate.

Journalisticly it is understandable why the would want to relate the results to the debate, but it doesn't seem to be relevent or useful information .

[Betty Karlson]

70. Interesting observations. Thanks. eom

[INdemo]

11. Yeah Right......

[cannabis_flower]

14. Boy, CNN has a very misleading headline there...

CNN poll: Post-debate, voters move to Clinton

Then it goes on to say that the race had tightened. Clinton lost 8 percentage points and Sanders gained 4 percentage points - sounds more like it should have read "CNN poll: Post-debate, voters move to Sanders".

[KansDem]

15. "...sounds more like it should have read 'CNN poll: Post-debate, voters move to Sanders'."

But that would upset the oligarchs, and we can't have that!

[SmittynMo]

16. I have come to the understanding that

MSM, the DNC, the oligarchs, and the SPAC politicians are all in this together. I feel it's total corruption. I am also convinced that any poll number from MSM, are so inaccurate, that we might truly have a political revolution if they reported the correct numbers.

Anybody with any kind of power wants Bernie out. And they will stop at nothing to halt his election.

The recent DNC incident did it for me.

[Waitsman]

69. Right

And you need to put CNN at the top of your list of fraudulent news. Eight years ago, they did a poll on immigration, always an election year topic. They listed several ways to stop illegals from coming here. Lots of things to vote on in their poll, except the ONE THING that would stop it. Imposing fines against those that hire them. Lies by omission are the bread and butter of news agencies, Rush and like. It works.

[lunamagica]

21. She always does well after debates

[Spitfire of ATJ]

25. Except when she talks.

[lunamagica]

29. Aww, you are so clever!

[november3rd]

23. Of course ...

"... That's a slightly tighter margin than in late-November, ..." From 28 points to 16 points: SLIGHT IIMPROVEMENT?

It's actually about a 40% improvement in a month for Bernie.

[hedda_foil]

31. So she lost 8 points and Bernie gained 4.... And that's a win for her?

Not to mention that the debate wasn't known of by the vast majority and it's scarcely been talked about.

Yet CNN presents these results as "post debate, voters move to ... Clinton"????

[Tiggeroshii]

49. Dhe affectively LOST 12 points. Not sure how that is votersnmoving toward her.

[ismnotwasm]

32. Nice!

[Reter]

43. Absolute lie of a title by CNN

They move to Clinton, yet her lead shrinks? Makes ZERO sense.

[SunSeeker]

47. No it's not. Read the article. The OP failed to include a key paragraph.

But those overall results mask a shift back toward Clinton following the Democratic debate on Saturday night. In interviews conducted before the debate, Sanders ran closer to Clinton, with 37% support to Clinton's 45%. Among those interviewed after the debate, Clinton's lead grew to 60% vs. Sanders' 27%.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/23/politics/cnn-orc-poll-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders/

[redstateblues]

54. Leave out anything that's not favorable to Bernie

[Liberal_in_LA]

51. .

[riversedge]

61. This will be a moment this little girl never forgets and

the audience is happy.

CNN Politics ?@CNNPolitics Dec 22

A 10-year-old moves @HillaryClinton with a question about bullying http://cnn.it/22oSdvK via @danmericaCNN

[CTyankee]

72. This might be one of those moments that we look back on and say "It changed the

way lots of people viewed Hillary Clinton and was a watershed moment in her campaign."

It was just lovely. And I'm a Bernie person.

[coyote]

62. Yes we are suppose to believe

that the candidate with the highest unfavorable ratings of any candidate on the republican or democratic side is gaining in the polls. They all suddenly lover her and find her trustworthy after the debate. And considering only 7 million viewers saw the debate (2% of the population)... i doubt we would see any changes in the polls at all.

[TekGryphon]

66. I don't want you to believe it.

I like watching people have meltdowns on election night when all their conspiracy theories suddenly deflate.

[coyote]

68. No conspiracy needed

If you cannot see that the entire machine is rigged for Clinton, then you are a fool. With that said, I will also enjoy your meltdown in the General. Merry Christmas!

[riversedge]

71. lovely