GOP Peparing For Contested Convention

[Purveyor]

Source: Washington Post

By Robert Costa and Tom Hamburger December 10 at 4:13 PM

Republican officials and leading figures in the party’s establishment are now preparing for the possibility of a brokered convention as Donald Trump continues sit atop the polls and the presidential race.

More than 20 of them convened Monday for a dinner held by Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, where the prospect of Trump nearing next year’s nominating convention in Cleveland with a significant number of delegates dominated the discussion, according to five people familiar with the meeting.

Considering that scenario as Priebus and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) listened, several longtime power brokers argued that if the controversial billionaire storms through the primaries, the party’s establishment must lay the groundwork for a floor fight, in which the GOP’s mainstream wing could coalesce around an alternative, the people said.

Because of the sensitivity of the topic — and wary of saying something that, if leaked, would provoke Trump to bolt the party and mount an independent bid — Priebus and McConnell were mostly quiet during the back and forth. They did not signal support for an overt anti-Trump effort.



Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-preparing-for-contested-convention/2015/12/10/d72574bc-9f73-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html

[silvershadow]

1. I predicted this weeks and weeks ago. Will be glad to see it. nt

[ToxMarz]

7. Have you got the Powerball numbers?

[silvershadow]

17. LOL I wish. nt

[Renew Deal]

2. If Trump has a majority of the delegates he should be the nominee

But if he ends up under the majority, things can get interesting.

[jberryhill]

14. I know, right?

They have one candidate with at least 10 points over the next guy in a field of a dozen.

Doesn't sound like a recipe for a brokered convention.

[yellowcanine]

46. He could still end up with a plurality rather than a majority easily.

The bigger the field is going into the convention, the more likely it is that one candidate will not win a majority on the first ballot. And after the first ballot, delegates are free to vote for anyone.

[mainstreetonce]

3. Can someone please explain

How a "brokered convention" works?

[Jefferson23]

5. Here ya go..this from the GOP perspective:

http://blog.constitutioncenter.org/2015/11/what-would-cause-the-gop-to-have-a-brokered-convention/

[MeNMyVolt]

6. Trump may come in with a plurality of votes...

... but the supers will do something else. Bank on it. But I still don't think Trump will win anything. Watch out for Rubio.

[KamaAina]

11. Do the repukes have superdelegates?

I asked this before and someone told me they don't.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10027378851#post22

[MeNMyVolt]

12. Uh, yes they do.

Both parties have a certain amount of control. Sometimes, for the best.

http://www.infoplease.com/us/government/superdelegates.html

[yellowcanine]

47. Virtually anyone could win at that point. Even Mitt Romney.

But Rubio is certainly a good bet as would be Jeb Bush. Christy, probably not.

[staggerleem]

10. Nope - they already have a golden boy on a white horse to save the party.

He's already ridden it to the House Speaker's chair, and I'm expecting a repeat performance at the convention. He's even got a bit of experience with Presidential campaigning, having run for VP 4 years ago. I'm even willing to bet that he once again feigns "reluctant" acceptance of the role.

[Tikki]

16. You are 100% correct about Ryan...this was planned some time back...and a woman for Vice-President..

Probably Haley.


Tikki

[houston16revival]

20. Could

Could not agree with you more. Ryan is being very smug and posturing
with head held high displaying what sounds like a mainstream agenda
for all to see from the Speaker's chair.

Ryan-Rubio

Covers Florida and the midwest for them

The rest have personality and ideological deficits
Cruz Christie Kasich Fiorina Paul and the rest I'm forgetting
Must be memorable

[floriduck]

33. I don't doubt you.

It will result in Trump running as a third party guy and guaranteeing a Dem landslide. That will be his payback to those that conspired to ruin his GOP candidacy.

It should be awesome.

[valerief]

34. Gawd help us! nt

[Reter]

39. That would worry me greatly

He's a nut, but not an extreme nut, and can pull off speeches where he sounds reasonable. Plus, he's now bearded. He would get some of the young, uninformed vote for that alone. He would likely trounce Hillary.

[DFW]

45. I doubt Hillary would grow a beard to ward off the threat

But Ryan has to get there first. He'd do better in the General than Cruz or Rubio, but Cruz and Rubio wouldn't settle for that scenario without a bruising fight, none of which will do any of them any good if Trump runs as an independent.

[zentrum]

41. We're in for it.

If what you say is true—terrifying because I think he's a competent monster.

Here's Robert Reich on how dangerous Ryan would be.

http://www.salon.com/2015/12/05/robert_reich_dismantles_paul_ryans_7_most_dangerous_ideas_they_will_harm_most_americans_partner/?source=newsletter

[Bonhomme Richard]

8. This is how Cruz slips in.

He doesn't have the overt baggage that Trump has and his nomination wouldn't upset the Trump supporters. In my view he is worse than Trump......just better at the dog whistles.

[Renew Deal]

9. He slips in as the VP

When he combines delegates with Trump

[sadoldgirl]

13. Can anyone here tell me what the last date is

for Trump to declare as an independent? It is clear that
the party would wait out that date,imo.

[houston16revival]

21. Wouldn't

Trump litigate ballot access on a state by state basis?

Money is no object

[Jim Lane]

43. Deadlines vary by state. Here's some further information.

There was a good discussion of this subject last week on Electoral-vote.com, with a link to a more detailed discussion by Larry Sabato.

The state deadlines, per the chart at the latter link, run from April 26 to September 9. Depending on the number of signatures required, the practical deadline could be considerably earlier, although of course Trump could pour money into paid signature-gatherers.

If Trump decides after the Republican convention in July that he's been shafted and so should run as an independent, he would have missed some important states, notably Texas (May 9 deadline). He could, however, still qualify in some states where his presence would make a difference. The obvious point is swing states, the deadlines for which are at the electoral-vote.com link. There are several with August deadlines where he could easily qualify. In addition, there are states that everyone is now counting as guaranteed red but where a big enough vote for Trump could give the Democratic nominee a shot at winning. For example, Arizona is one of those September 9 deadline states, and Romney beat Obama by only nine percentage points there. Give Trump 18% of the Arizona vote (the share Perot got nationwide in 1992) and the state could go blue.

[yellowcanine]

48. Trump could do some serious damage as a write in candidate in places like Texas.

Enough Trumpistas could write in his name to flip Texas to the Democrat if the Repub nominee was someone they really hated - and Rubio might fit that category if they thought he had swindled Trump out of the nomination.

[NYC Liberal]

15. Not gonna happen. The media salivates every election over this possibility.

I remember whe Hillary and Obama were going to duke it out on the floor in 2008.

Every election we hear about this because the media would LOVE it for their ratings.

[Renew Deal]

26. It would make for great television.

[goldent]

44. I agree. I'd like to see a real contest on either side.

It would make the convention actually interesting.

And I'm not convinced it would hurt the candidate's chances. The electorate these days might be enamored by the winner who fought it out and won. Style over substance is the name of the game.

[yellowcanine]

49. This has no precedent in modern times. Obama/Clinton in 2008 is not comparable.

For one thing, Obama and Clinton very quickly became the only two viable candidates. By early May it was clear that one of them was going to win on the first ballot. In contrast, this year is quite muddled for the Republicans. I still think there could be some big surprises and someone like Rubio could break out of the pack in some early contests and then solidify a lead in South Carolina. I suspect that many of the Trumpistas start dropping off if Trump suffers a couple of serious setbacks in Iowa, New Hampshire, etc. - Cruz or Carson could benefit, as could Rubio.

[tanyev]

18. Note to self: Call broker and ask about buying Orville Reddenbacher stock.

[briv1016]

19. Never gonna happen

The GOP would rather back Trump, lose the election and then blame the Tea Party/Base. My money is still on Rubio though. The GOP establishment still owns the voting machines.

[houston16revival]

22. THE GOP

is capturing so much press time and energy with all these candidates,
and Trump is part of that

HRC is wise to be espousing her platform

Bernie too.

[Purveyor]

27. Unfortunately, due to the lack of debates, the DEM candidates

are all but forgotten about and this will hurt come Nov.

[houston16revival]

30. I ran into

one very dumb guy I know last week. This is a guy who has to think about
everything he says, to reason it out beforehand.

He told me things would be fine when Trump gets in to rescind the "1,000"
executive orders that Obama has signed.

My point being, yes, the media buzz is diminishing Democratic educational
publicity. The glow belongs to Trump at the moment.

[global1]

24. If Leaked This Would Provoke Trump To Bolt The Party And Mount An Independent Bid.....

so keep this quiet guys. Make sure that the Donald or none of his people read the Washington Post article about this or prey in the background here on DU so they don't find out about this discussion at this dinner. We wouldn't want that to happen. Shhhh.......

Oh - and I thought all the primary contenders signed a pledge to back whomever emerged as the victor of the primaries?

What galls me is that the Repugs have mugged all the TV time with all their debates and the sheer number of candidates that they have. They have dominated the cable news shows and the Sunday shows.

Now they are going to whet the people's appetite for a brokered convention? Wait till the MSM jumps on that bandwagon. The Repugs will continue to dominate the news sopping away all but a meager coverage of the Dems.

And besides - I thought this was all figured out before the primary season even began. The presumptive nominees were to be Jeb! and Hillary.

This whole thing is a farce and a waste of people's time and money.

[houston16revival]

32. This is why I thought Joe Biden should run

He makes headlines, he has stature.

Sure he makes gaffs. But they've become almost likeable because
they're without major consequences.

He would have provided star power.

[forest444]

25. The GOP schism.

Between cretins like this:



And criminals like this:

[Coventina]

28. A pox on both their houses!

[forest444]

29. Ayuh. Especially on the vulture in the bottom.

Of course it would take some doing, given that Singer has residences in Palm Beach, Manhattan, the Caymans, and, I believe, London.

That money laundering runt has been trying to rip off bondholders (and entire countries) for years by using the courts to hold their payments hostage until he gets his way. He deserves whatever you can throw at him, Coventina.

[Jester Messiah]

31. Should be interesting.

Proof, if any were needex, that whoever wins the Dem primary will likely take the general. "Socialist" or not.

[Purveyor]

36. If Romney should happen to ride in on a white horse, he could

be problematic, imo.

[Yupster]

37. He's the obvious choice

but I don't expect a brokered convention.

My guess is an all-Hispanic ticket of Rubio - Martinez.

[zentrum]

35. All of the

…….Republican candidates each, in his or her own special way, is worse than the other.

[jwirr]

38. This would be worth watching just from a educational

perspective. Very interesting. I remember watching a few fights at Democratic Conventions where there was more than one ballot.

[roamer65]

40. Hillary may go into office on a plurality just like Bill.

Sounds like an election like 1912 and 1992 is coming.

[Dawson Leery]

42. They lose.