Iowa: Cruz Takes Caucus Lead

[brooklynite]

Source: Monmouth University

Ted Cruz commands the top spot in the latest Monmouth University Poll of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers – his first lead in any early state poll of the 2016 cycle.

Donald Trump and Marco Rubio are within a few percentage points of one another for second place. The poll also found that an influential House member’s recent endorsement is only one factor behind Cruz’s rise, which has come primarily at Ben Carson’s expense.

Ted Cruz earns 24% support when likely caucusgoers are asked who they will support in the Republican contest. This marks a clear lead over Donald Trump (19%), Marco Rubio (17%), and Ben Carson (13%). Jeb Bush stands at 6% and Rand Paul is at 4%, while Carly Fiorina and John Kasich earn 3% each. None of the other six candidates tested in the poll draws more than 2% support.

Monmouth showed Carson on top two months ago, but his support has plummeted by 19 points since then. Cruz’s support, on the other hand, has jumped by 14 points. Rubio has seen his vote share increase by 7 points since October. Support levels for both Trump and Bush are nearly identical to two months ago.

Read more: http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/de240398-df23-47b6-8470-91977d38b749.pdf

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So, look for Trump to take the gloves off in the next debate.

[Iliyah]

1. Trickling down and weeding out to either Jebbie, Christie or the Ohio Governor

which is just as bad. The whole lot of the GOP's suck big time. Their base is absolutely out of touch with reality. Dark ages.

[LonePirate]

2. This is an interesting polling org as they have had not had Trump leading for months.

It would seem they are an outlier in that regard which makes me wonder if they have tapped into the true consciousness of the electorate or if they are totally off-base. However, Cruz picking up Carson's supporters seems consistent with what we're seeing in other polls and what we know about both candidates' supporters.

[Cosmocat]

5. A couple things

I was dead sure Carson would fade - he is a horrible politician with his comatose personality.

And, in his primary, his skin tone was a non-starter.

He was going to fade, but France put a fork in him.

He isn't a serious candidate, and any serious issue was going to chase people away from him, a big economic incident would have done the same.

But, France got the cons going for their binkies, and there is NOTHING about Carson that will help them to "feel safe."

Cruz is a serious politician and I suppose could win the nomination, but Rubio is a MUCH better general election candidate for them.

Cruz just has a "creepy' factor to him, while Rubio has the good looks and comes across as "nice", and Cruz has actively staked extreme positions, while Rubio has been deft enough to not put himself into too many extreme positions.

Maybe not in Iowa, and maybe Iowa resets things a bit once it happens, but Trump is still sort of like Hillary in that he has more traction in more places.

[flamingdem]

12. fingies crossed for cruz missile

goo ted arriba arriba

[Dont call me Shirley]

3. So the fundie churches switched their allegiance from Carson to Cruz now.

[winstars]

4. Looks like we're gonna need a bigger bag of popcorn folks!!!

[erronis]

9. Or a larger vomitorium.

I Puke, You Puke, we all Puke for RePukes!

[Gothmog]

6. We are shifting from registered voters to likely caucus goers in the polling

Trump's supporters are far less likely to show up at the caucuses

[book_worm]

7. Watch Rubio come in second and the media start swooning over him again.

[Bernin]

8. Ha!

So, now it's Squiggy's turn to be flavor of the month?
Sorry, not buying it.

[EL34x4]

10. I've taken to calling him "Me too Ted"

Every time Trump says something outrageous, Cruz is right behind him in his squeaky little voice shouting, "Me too! Me too!"

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

11. This is WAR!!!11!!

Trump will not stand for this.

[saltpoint]

13. I'm sorry to hear this news of

Cruz's rise in the Iowa polling.

I would rather live in a country where voters of no state would accept the fascist bullshit that spews out of Ted Cruz's mouth at every occasion.

Unfortunately, I don't live in such a country.

[brooklynite]

14. Based on the new CNN poll, I'm now inclined to consider this an outlier...

CNN/ORC Poll

Trump 33 (+8)
Cruz 20 (+9)
Carson 16 (-7)
Rubio 11 (-2)
Bush 4 (-1)

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/07/politics/poll-results-ted-cruz-donald-trump-iowa/

[former9thward]

15. You are correct.

But I have no idea what the ground game of either campaigns are in Iowa.