Tensions rise as Russia says it's deploying anti-aircraft missiles to Syria

[Jesus Malverde]

Source: CNN

Tensions in the Middle East ratcheted up dangerously Wednesday, a day after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane, with the Turkish President accusing Russia of deceit and Russia announcing it would deploy anti-aircraft missiles to Syria.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu said on his ministry's Twitter feed that the country would deploy S-400 defense missile systems to its Hmeymim airbase near Latakia, on Syria's Mediterranean coast.

The missiles have a range of 250 kilometers, according to the missilethreat.com website -- or 155 miles. The Turkish border is less than 30 miles away.


Read more: http://edition.cnn.com/2015/11/25/middleeast/syria-turkey-russia-warplane-shot-down/

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Funny malaprop from the video at the CNN report.

"In an act of self defiance, or self defense sorry"

[Purveyor]

1. Hmmm. The S-400 uh? Not fucking around are there... Nt

[jpak]

8. A No-Fly Zone

yup

[dixiegrrrrl]

2. whose aircraft would they be targeting?

[Purveyor]

7. Perhaps the legitimate gov't of Syria is going to request that Russia impose a 'no-fly-zone'

over Syria.

Now THAT would be interesting, indeed.

[Xolodno]

3. That's kind of overkill there....

...but that does send a message.

[Jesus Malverde]

5. Overkill?

Turkish warplanes are reportedly grounded after being lit up by their radar. Lets see the New Ottoman empire and their emir edrogans next move.

The fact NATO basically left them hanging in the wind is interesting.

[Xolodno]

10. Yeah...the S-300 is more than capable...

....in taking down what the Turkish air force has, S-400 was designed for stealth planes.

But yeah, NATO did the usual "we stand with our ally" bit and then let their problem child Turkey to face the music. Blowing up the jet basically blew up the US/France negotiating position. Its all but certain there will be a Shia bridge that goes from Syria-Iraq-Iran

[Jesus Malverde]

11. NATO left Turkey to deal with their madness,

It's a historic moment.

[jakeXT]

19. It's an opportunity to test it with real NATO planes

I bet the US did it in the Black Sea during Russia's Ukraine / Crimea operation.

There is still the S-500, deployed around Moscow I believe.

[neverforget]

27. The Turks could close the Dardanelle Straits thereby bottling

up the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Just an option and not an opinion on my part.

[Nihil]

32. With not a chance of NATO support, the Turks involved would be on a suicide mission.

The NATO "contract" does not support members who engage in offensive operations.

Turkey would be initiating a (further) act of war against Russia and that would be
a BAD move.

[KingCharlemagne]

33. Especially considering that President Putin could incinerate Ankara with one push of a button. The

Last edited Thu Nov 26, 2015, 09:54 AM - Edit history (1)

putative NATO alliance would be small comfort to Erdogan and his whackjob cohort then. Would NATO really risk global nuclear Armageddon on behalf of a Sunni Turkmen madman???

[Nihil]

35. No need to invoke the nuclear spook ... conventional arms will sort out any blockade PDQ ...

... and without any need for escalation or rest of world involvement.

[KingCharlemagne]

37. I still have this vision of Brzezinski and his fellow Russo-phobic coterie

at the CFR foaming at the mouth over this golden opportunity to taunt the Russian bear. Fools and madmen.

[Oneironaut]

6. So much potential for friendly fire against the U.S. now.

Thanks, Turkey! F'n douchebags...

[jamzrockz]

9. This is good news

Make the place a no fly zone and shoot down any violators. This incident yesterday has reminded us how important it is to enforce a country's airspace integrity.

It also going to save us money on military cost in ammunition and man power hrs. So thanks Putin(in advance) for lowering our budget deficit

[happyslug]

16. Yes, the shooting of a Missile into Syria is a clear act of War.

According to the radar track record handled out by THE TURKS, themselves, the Missile hit the SU-24 while the Su-24 was in SYRIAN aid space. Thus the missile was VIOLATING Syrian Air Space. The Turks claim that the F=16 never entered Syrian Air Space, the Russians claim yjr F-16 did. No one is disputing that the MISSILE hit the SU-24 IN SYRIAN AIRSPACE and the SU-24 landed inside Syria.

International law say you can NOT entered the Air Space of another country, but if it is done and no one is hurt or property damage, it is a MINOR incident. On the other hand it is a MAJOR incident to harm someone when during such an illegal incursion. Thus the SU-24 cutting through Turkey is illegal, it is NOT a shoot down offense. On the other hand the shooting down of a plane in someone's else territory, even of acts the plane has done in your own territory is another matter.

Remember we have TWO violations of sovereign Air Space, one, done by the Russians, that caused NO HARM, and another which lead to lost of the SU-24 and the death of its pilot. It is the HARM caused by the second Air Space Violation that requires a reaction other then a mere letter. Putin will react, probably by waiting for a F-16 to cross from Turkey into Kurdish held Syria and then having his SU-29s of S-400 missiles to shoot them down after making sure the Missile stays in Syria and the resulting crash is in Syria. Putin may even give the Kurds real time access to Russian Radar on Turkish Air craft operating not only in Syria but Kurdish Turkey. That will reduce the effectiveness of the Turkish campaign against the Kurds in Turkey.

[KingCharlemagne]

34. Shades of 1914, eh? - nt

[happyslug]

38. More 1912-1913 in the Balkans.

People forget the Balkans started early.

[lovuian]

12. Russia is not backing down

in fact it's digging in

Turkey doesn't like the Russian base on their border .....neither does NATO and neither does the US

Sibel Edmonds comes to mind here .....I think Turkey just played their hand

[LanternWaste]

13. Hopefully this will massage the incompetence of the Russian air force.

Hopefully this will massage the incompetence of the Russian air force.

[Jesus Malverde]

14. If you pay attention they have been very effective in their efforts against terrorists

in syrian territory. They have killed scores of snakbars, they are on the run.

I applaud their killing of jihadists.

[uawchild]

21. ISIS and apparently Turkey obviously think Russia is being effective and needs to be stopped.

The sad thing is Turkey's undying loyalty to supporting and turning a blind eye (wink wink) to ISIS's activities.

"Turkey could cut off Islamic State’s supply lines. So why doesn’t it?"
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/18/turkey-cut-islamic-state-supply-lines-erdogan-isis

[Jesus Malverde]

29. Great article

Re-posted to the foreign affairs group

Thanks.

[happyslug]

23. Incompetence? A Late Cold War Fighter shooting down a late Cold War Bomber??/

In many ways the F-16 was designed as a SU-24 killer. The F-16 is capable of firing radar and heat seeking missiles. The SU-24 was flying at an attitude to avoid ground fire, thus making it an easier target for such Air to Air Missiles. All of the planes involved were tracked by ground based Radar, thus we know where the Planes were, as did the pilots of the planes at the time of the shoot down.

Yes, the SU-24 did not do any maneuvers to avoid the missile, but the piloit was NOT expecting a missile. The Pilot probably knew, based on his planes internal capacities, that the F-16 had locked his radar on him, but that is standard procedure and thus the Russian Pilot dismissed the lock on as something the Turkish F-16 would do WITHOUT FIRING ANYTHING. The pilot is probably under orders NOT to engage Turkish or other aircraft and had no expectation of any hostile action by anyone.

My pilot this is like a drive by shooting. In a drive by shooting, if the victim knew he was a target the victim would have done things to avoid being shot (Such as ducking in an ally way or behind a parked vehicle). On the other hand merely seeing a person in a car does NOT put a person on notice that he will soon be the victim of a drive by shooting, so the victim just continues to walk down the street till he is fired upon. This appears to be the case here, merely having the F-16 Radar locked on him meant nothing. All that meant that if he remained in Turkish territory (if we assume the Turks are right and the SU-24 did enter Turkish territory) he could be shot down. The Su-24 was in Turkish territory less then 17 seconds, by the time the missile from the F-16 hit the SU-24, both the Missile and the Su-24 were in SYRIAN TERRITORY.

Sorry, this was like a drive by shooting of someone NOT expecting such a shooting. To say that makes the victim incompetent is a huge leap of imagination. Now, if the victim knew he was going to be attacked that is a different set of facts, but I have NOT seen any indications that the pilot knew or had even been told he might be attacked by the Turkish Air Force.

Now, this also does not prove the ability of the Russian Air Force. The Russian Air Force is shadow of the Soviet Air Forces of the 1980s but in recent years have improve their capacities. The massive bombing campaign have shown what the Russians can do in a non hostile environment. The real issue what can they do in a hostile environment? i.e. when the other side has Air to Air and Ground or Ship to Air capacities? This does not address that question at all.

[daleo]

30. "massage the incompetence

Sorry, what's that mean?

[Nihil]

31. It means that he's typing with one hand again ...

[w0nderer]

15. K & R N/T

[EndElectoral]

17. Great. Now if Turkey is attacked is NATO required to intervene?

[jakeXT]

18. Maybe we can point to the statements by the Pentagon that this is a Rus/Tur issue /nt

[Jesus Malverde]

20. Leaving the turks in the lurch.

makes NATO a joke right?

[jakeXT]

22. Article 5 and WW3 sounds a lot worse

Some tried to get Georgia and Ukraine into Nato years before... that would've been problematic during 2008 and during the Ukraine operation.

[christx30]

24. I think it's pretty reasonable.

"If you're attacked, we'll help you. If you're an asshole and you poke the bear, you're on your own."

The alternative is either WWIII, or banking on Russia's charitable and forgiving attitude. I'll give you a few minutes to stop laughing at that last bit. Try to drink some water.

[Marrah_G]

26. I think so

[Xithras]

28. That would really depend on Russia

Article 5 requires that NATO members assist when a member is attacked until their security is restored.

If Russia lobbed a few missiles at Ankara as retribution for the shootdown and said "OK, we're even now", the other NATO states could argue that the security situation had passed and that no additional military intervention was needed. If Turkey went to war with Russia over it, NATO could opt out because Article 5 is a defensive trigger, and not an offensive one. If one NATO member decides to go to war with a non-NATO nation, the rest of NATO is not required to join them.

Dealing with the political fallout is another story.

[Marrah_G]

25. With all the countries flying there, what could go wrong?

[KingCharlemagne]

36. Indeed. See 1914 and then toss in nukes - nt

[cstanleytech]

39. I dont see any problem with this, its not like Turkey is in any danger since they arent entering

Russian airspace.