= new reply since forum marked as read
Turkey had already warned Russia not to fly into their airspace.
Rather Putin be straight-jacketed for for ignoring 72 hours worth of warnings to cease and desist the overflights into Tirkish airspace. Which is not merely throwing gasoline on a fire, but lighting the match and throwing it onto the embers-- despite warnings from Ankara and NATO to slowly back way from the fire... 
or
or, and just as bad
Last edited Wed Dec 9, 2015, 10:00 PM - Edit history (2)
First the weather and population:
Syria comes under the same weather pattern as Israel and Jordan. The Aleppo-Damascus-Amman Line is as far EAST as you can go and get enough rain fall for crops. In the morning the sun raises in the East, heats up the Desert and the resulting expanding air molecules drives the wind in all directions, in this discussion to the West. This lasts all morning, till the sun is over head on the Aleppo-Damascus-Amman Line. The wind then dies and about 4:00 pm starts to head EAST as the sun over the desert of Arabia goes even further west, This cools down the Arabian Desert, which makes air molecules smaller, which means they take up less space and Nature abhorring a vacuum creates a wind from the Mediterranean Sea to that Desert area.
This late afternoon wind has been known since biblical times for it brings the rains to the area. The wind tends to run out of water on the Aleppo-Damascus-Amman Line, thus west of that line you have farming, east of that line you have herding. Given that farming supports a higher population then herding, the population of every country in the area has its largest population WEST of that line.
Now, Aleppo gets into the area of the world where the temperature regions West-East movement of weather occurs. This gives water to modern day Turkey and to the mountains to the north of Aleppo. On the other hand those same mountains prevent rains going to its east, thus it is desert except where a river flows, then you have farming by irrigation, which is the rule in Iraq.
Transportation and Trade:
Along the Mediterranean coast you have mountainous terrain from Turkey to Israel. These mountains act as a barrier to trade except through its passes, and the best pass is from the Lebanese Coast to Damascus. Once in Damascus, the best route is to go North to Aleppo and then east to Tigris and Euphrates rivers of Iraq. The mountains make it a hardship to move goods directly from Aleppo to Lebanon, thus the trade route is from the Lebanese Coast, to Damascus to Aleppo to Iraq.
An alternative method of trade from Iraq is to go over the Mountains to Trapezoid on the Black Sea Coast. It is longer and steeper and in the days of horse and oxen drawn carts avoided. Jerusalem is actually to far south. Trade from Jerusalem required movement across the Arabian Desert (something to be avoided) OR from the Red Sea. If from the Red Sea the route went to Jerusalem then to Acre, or Damascus. Acre is at the end of the Jezreel Valley, which goes from the Dead Sea to the Mediterranean Sea.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jezreel_Valley
The Jezreel is a rich valley but has two ridges on each side of the Valley. These Ridges provides a defending forces an advantage. Given they is no other ridge between Egypt and Acre, these ridges have been the location of many battles over the last 5000 years. Historically, Egypt wanted to keep any force that may invade Egypt NORTH of that valley so it can use those ridges in defence, while forces from Asia Minor (present day Turkey) and Iraq wants them so defend themselves from any Egyptian invasion (and having to divert forces in case of an Egyptian intervention when Asia Minor and Iraq fought it out).
Now the Jezreel valley and Acre are in modern Israel, but Lebanon and Damascus is right to Israel's north. In the past, there was much more trade from Iraq to the Mediterranean via Aleppo, Damascus and Lebanon then from Jerusalem to the Mediterranean sea thus Damascus and Aleppo became the main cities on the east - west trade line. That both cities also had extensive farming areas, thus providing grain for the horses and oxen used to haul wagons made them the main cities in the area.
Side note: South of Jezreel Valley and Acre, the only decent harbor (and it is a small harbor) is Jaffa, now a part of Tel Aviv. I mention this for in Ancient times conquering Armies in modern day Israel, avoided Jerusalem and the west bank, the geography in that area is a series of hills, perfect for ambushes or blockage of another army. On the other hand the coast is one huge plain from Egypt to the Jezreel Valley. Thus Armies went up along the coast to the Jezreel Valley and the town of Megiddo and then to Iraq or Asia Minor (The road splits at Megiddo). Thus the trade routes, till post WWII, remain from present day Israel to Damascus to Lebanon.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaffa
While we use trucks today instead of Oxen or Horses, the fact water is hard to find EAST of the Aleppo-Damascus-Amman Line is still a major factor in trade routes. It is possible to drive from Amman to Basra in Iraq, it is a long trip in a road with minimal population to support things like rest stops. Thus most trade still goes Lebanon to Damascus to Aleppo to Iraq (and reverse)
As to the Mountains between the road between Damascus and Aleppo and the sea, that is the heart land of the Alawites, Assad family group. It is the area the rebels have had NO success in, but the Turks have inroads dating back to the days of the Ottoman Empire in its Northern regions. Inland, the Kurds control the area along the Turkish border, where the made trade route to Iraq is located.
Aleppo has been contested by Rebels from Syrian South East, as has been Damascus. The south east of Syria is the area most like Saudi Arabia. It became part of Syria, for the same reason we have the southern border of Iraq. It was the furthest planes could fly from the coast, which the French held in 1920. Further east and south was beyond the range of planes and left to Saudi Arabia. This is also true of Eastern Jordan border (that border is the Mark where Planes from Jaffa could fly in 1920), but the present government of Jordan has the support of Saudi Arabia and thus is NOT facing a ISIS revolt.
That there is no real difference between south east Syria and the rest of Saudi Arabia means the tribes in the area operate in both countries on a every day basis. This gives Saudi Arabia a way to supply the rebels in Syria, a method no government in Syria can stop.
Right now, Syria has made no effort to invade Southeastern Syria. They have conceded that area to the rebels. It is a low population area, but open, thus easy to control once you have air superiority. The real issue for Syria is control of its trade route, the Lebanon to Damascus to Aleppo to Iraq route. It has little affect today in international trade (the sea routes have long by passed it) but as a local route it is the route people use.
Thus why the Russians are fighting in the north, Aleppo and the trade route to Iraq is what everyone wants to control. That route is just south of the Turkish border and thus why the Kurds are fighting for it as while as Assad's Syrian Troops and Troops from Iran and Iraq.
You fight in the area being contested due to transportation needs, and right now that route is the key to Syria and thus why the Russians are doing what they are doing AND why the Turks are doing they best to undo what the Russians are doing.
Here is an ethnic map of Syria:
https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=
&w=1484
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/08/27/the-one-map-that-shows-why-syria-is-so-complicated/
?w=855&h=752
https://americaninfomaps.wordpress.com/2014/07/24/mapping-the-fracturing-of-iraq-in-2014/
http://www.vox.com/a/maps-explain-the-middle-east
Since we are going to be involved with this even more heavily going forward.
"First Reports" in "Fog of War" are often not true........
Yet......the reports are out there..so, should be considered truth until proven wrong that Turkey Shot Down the Russian Jet the Pilot/Co-Pilot jettisoned and were shot down as they landed.
A Russsian Helicopter arriving "On Scene" has the Pilot shot down and killed and the Turkmen's killed both pilots of the Russian Jet, shot down.
Supposedly, NEW REPORTS say the Russian Pilots survived and are being held in Turkey....
So what is the TRUTH OF IT? Whatever the MSM says...and until we see those Pilots Live......I reserve my judgement on what REALLY HAPPENED.
Lets see those two Pilots and the Helicopter Pilot for Rescue ....ALIVE and Speaking to the MSM before we got with the latest narrative.
Turkey is playing a very dangerous game here. 52% of it oil is imported from Iraq and Iran. Right now Shiite of Iraq are pro Iranian, and Iran in Pro Russia. Kazakhstan and Russia provides another 11% (and they should be viewed as one source), Saudi Arabia 10%, Nigeria 8% and it produces just 13% of the oil it uses.
https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=TUR
Thus, Turkey can lose 63% of the oil it is using if it goes to war with Russia. Yes there is an oil surplus at the present time, but any shift if who supplies what to whom takes time.
Turkey imports 57% of its Natural Gas from Russia, another 20% from Iran and 10% for Azerbaijan. Total of 87% that would be cut off in a war with Russia or Iran.
Sorry, the Natural Gas Shut Off can not lead to war, for war to occur Turkey would have to attack Russia or Iran, and Russia would be just waiting for such an attack (and if Iran is attacked, Russia can easily intervene). NATO is a defensive Alliance and thus no NATO country will assist Turkey in an attack on Russia.
In simple terms a Russian Cut off of Oil can be worked around by imports from elsewhere, but Natural Gas is a different case. Liquified natural gas ships are limited and most are tied up in shipments from the Middle East to Europe. People want to start shipping US Natural Gas to Europe, but we are still setting up the means to do so. Given the price difference between Natural Gas prices in the US and Europe, a push is to set up and export Natural Gas but setting up the system takes time.
Thus no shut off of Oil and Natural Gas from Russia to Turkey and no shut off of the Bosphorus. Neither Russia nor Turkey can afford it.
What I do expect is Russia to wait for a Turkish Plane to fly into Syria to hit Kurdish positions. When that occurs I expect the Turkish planes to be destroyed. Turkey will get the message, if the Turks want to play at throwing Air to Air Missiles the Russians will play and the Turks will NO LONGER LIKE THE GAME.
At the same time Russia will provide more assistance to the Greeks, who have been the main suppliers of weapons to the Kurds for decades. In turn, the Greeks, being members of NATO will veto any assistance to the Turks. The Greeks are in desperate economic situation at the present time, and as such will sell they loyalty cheaply.
While Erdogan had come out to support his Military (he is a Politician and as such always will openly back the military) I do NOT see him authorizing anything. To many grounds to oppose any expansion of this fight just to look like you support the troops, for such support for the troops to last any length of time. I see Erdogan saying Russia was bad, but then doing nothing. In a few months you will some Air Force Generals fired for permitting this shooting but that will NOT be the stated grounds for the dismissal (Another group of generals who wants to spend more time with their families).
Erdogan wants to suppress the Kurds, but NOT at the expense of his control over Turkey and a shut off of Oil and Natural Gas would threaten his control over Turkey.
Remember just because Erdogan has come out and attack Putin and the Russians does not mean he supported this attack. I suspect this was done by the Turkish High Command behind his back. Erdogan has to show his support for his military (just like Obama would have to show support for out military if it did such a screw up) but that does NOT mean he approves of the attack OR even new about it BEFORE it hit the news.
Remember the Turkish High Command is much more loyal to the opposition to Erdogan then to Erdogan. Thus someone may have thought this was a way to force Erdogan's hand to do something stupid, like sending in troops to counter any Russian retaliation on the opposition to Assad.
Sorry, Putin holds the high cards in this dispute, Turkey will back down.
Side note: Some commentators have commented that this attack, while unknown to Erdogan may have been pre known to the Pentagon. The Pentagon is full of Generals and Admirals who want to break up Russia, for they see Russia, combined with China as the major threat to US Domination of this planet. They would like a Cold War with Russia, hoping the new Cold War will do to Russia and China what the old Cold war did to the Soviet Union (i.e. bankrupt them and the bankruptcy leading to dissolution). That would secure the planet for US Domination (and by that domination by the largest corporations in the world for that is who the Pentagon is presently working for, NOT the American People).
If that is the case, that the Pentagon and US State Department had the Turkish Military do this attack to force Russia to do something Stupid, then Putin has to watch his step. Putin can NOT look weak but Putin has to make sure he does NOT over step. In simple terms Putin has to wait so that any counter measure is clearly seen as something positive not negative. i.e. Putin has to wait to shoot down a Turkish plane flying over Syria NOT attack a Turkish plane flying over Turkey.
I do not know if this is a Pentagon provocation, but if it is, Putin's best option is to treat it the same as I mentioned above, wait for a Turkish plane to fly over Syria and make sure the plane crashes in Syria. It is NOT that hard to do, but everyone involved on the Russian side has to be careful and understand what has to be done and how.
