GOP Has Clear Top 4; Clinton Dominant for Dems; General Election Tight

[riversedge]

Source: publicpolicypolling.com




November 19, 2015
GOP Has Clear Top 4; Clinton Dominant for Dems; General Election Tight

PPP's first look at the Republican Presidential race nationally in six weeks finds that things haven't actually changed all that much since early October. Donald Trump leads the field with 26%, to 19% for Ben Carson. Trump and Carson were first and second on our last poll as well at 27% and 17% respectively. Also getting solid amounts of support are Ted Cruz at 14% and Marco Rubio at 13%. No one else in the GOP field even gets more than 5%- Jeb Bush reaches that mark followed by Carly Fiorina and Mike Huckabee at 4%, Chris Christie and John Kasich at 3%, Rand Paul at 2%, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki at 1%, and Jim Gilmore, Bobby Jindal, and Rick Santorum all at less than 1%.

....................


On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton leads with 59% to 26% for Bernie Sanders and 7% for Martin O'Malley. Our last national poll without Joe Biden in it was in July and at that time we found Clinton leading Sanders by 35 points at 57/22. These numbers suggest not a whole lot has changed in terms of the overall contours of the race since that time.

O'Malley's 7% appears to be the best he's done in a national poll by any company to date. That may have him cutting a little bit into Sanders' share of the anti-Clinton vote and driving up her margin over the field. Even after a couple debates O'Malley still hasn't achieved 50% name recognition though, with 27% rating him favorably and 18% unfavorably but 55% having no opinion one way or another. By contrast every candidate on the Republican side has at least 50% name recognition except for Jim Gilmore.

Clinton's leading within every demographic group on the Democratic side but it's closer with some segments of the electorate than others. She leads Sanders just 50/36 with white voters, but is up 70/13 with African Americans and 84/8 with Hispanics. She leads Sanders just 47/32 with men, but is up 69/22 with women. She leads Sanders just 53/32 with younger voters, but is up 66/17 with seniors. And she leads Sanders by just 17 with 'very liberal' voters at 56/39, but is up 34 with moderates at 56/22, and 49 points with 'somewhat liberal' voters at 72/23.

Read more: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/11/gop-has-clear-top-4-clinton-dominant-for-dems-general-election-tight.html

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[LonePirate]

1. I support Bernie but the last paragraph in the article (not pasted) is devastating.

I may be voting Bernie in the primary; but I have no reservations about voting for Hillary in the general if it comes to that.

[Moostache]

2. That GOP top 4 is terrifying.

Trump
Carson
Cruz
Rubio

My god, all of them COMBINED are not qualified to be elected Dog-Catcher.

Trump and Carson can't possibly maintain the lead through the primaries and that would leave Cruz and Rubio as the last two standing? Sweet Jeebus! If the democratic party cannot beat that ticket - either Cruz-Rubio or Rubio-Cruz - then the party should disband and reform under a new platform and organization.

[blackspade]

3. Joe 'The Plumber' is more qualified.

What a cast of rubes and clowns.

[getagrip_already]

4. why not?

They can and are holding those leads, so why don't you believe one of them (likely trump) will be the nominee?

The only thing to stop it is a brokered convention, which won't happen unless there is a four way split in the early states (which isn't likely).

Trump will be their guy. the veep will be a koch appointee.

We have a withering assault on our senses coming. Not quite shock and awe, more like ENOUGH!!! but it won't be enough, it will be a constant increase.

This won't be a replay of 2012. It is going to be a barrage of insanity at 1000 db.

[Moostache]

5. I believe Trump (and Carson) cannot last for several reasons.

But the biggest reason of all is that neither one of them is remotely close to sane and I simply cannot believe the GOP is that out of control that they would go all the way through to nominating a blow-hard idiot or a pathological liar.

I REALLY can't believe that the polls show a national election would be CLOSE against either one of them...my god, how have we sunk this low as a nation?

[getagrip_already]

9. oh ye of little faith!

The nomination is controlled by the republicans, not the country. They were at last count only 28% of registered voters. Dems have somewhere in the 30-32% range, and indies/nonaligned the rest.

So given the base the most radical element, it's easy to see how they will railroad the nomination to a crazy. It's a subset of a subset that decides.

What could be described as a non-radical republican probably isn't registered as a red and probably isn't voting in the primaries. I have several of those as neighbors.

But I also know most of those people are "yellow dog" reds. They would no more vote for a blue then they would vote for a muslim terrorist (unless they were a red candidate). And in the last election, they were probably wondering if that was the choice.

So I don't share your optimism towards the sanity of the beast. The election will be close. The media will see to it. If one candidate pulls ahead, they will knock them down and build up the opponent. It is their business model. Just look at the primaries. They can't stand boring. They will generate a horse race.

I don't care who the red and blue choices are. If there is a purple in the race, it will hurt.

[jmowreader]

6. It'll be Cruz plus someone of a different ethnicity

Cruz and Rubio are both Cubans, so the GOP won't run the two together. I think they might go with a woman - either a white woman (Carly Fiorina, perhaps - who gives them the business credentials they love) or a black woman (maybe Condoleezza Rice - who would be logical to run against Hillary because they think she'll cancel out her foreign policy credentials).

[rtracey]

7. Polls.....

Instead of poll watching now, we can wait for some actual primary voting too occur. I believe that Trump and Carson are just a show. Its like slowing down to look at an accident, once you arrive and not able to see anything, you drive on, forget you saw it and never think about it again.

Bernie/Hillary Bernie/Hillary Bernie/Hillary Bernie/Hillary Bernie/Hillary Bernie/Hillary.....hes up, no shes up, he's down, not as much as she..........lets see how the primaries go..... if he does well, then lets support him, if she does well, lets support her.... as democrats we NEED....NEED to support OUR candidate... NO GOP in Whitehouse or kiss everything we have worked for good bye..... if the right controls Legislature and Executive, then count on them also controlling the Supreme court. Once the court crosses to the conservative side, trust me..gay marriage, Rowe v Wade, Money in politics, gun control, all turns conservative, and overturned.....SS and medicare gets cut or SS age goes to 70-72, immigration goes back to the dark ages, healthcare/ACA gone...not a pretty photo....

[PSPS]

8. "General election tight" is hogwash, especially this far out months before the primary

None of the GOP field has any chance at all of winning the general. Anyone who says otherwise is just trying to sell their services to the "must have a horse race" media, intent only on selling ads.