New Hampshire: Clinton Pulls Ahead of Sanders

[brooklynite]

Source: Monmouth University

West Long Branch, NJ – Hillary Clinton has taken a slim 3 point lead over Bernie Sanders in
New Hampshire, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll of Granite State voters likely to
participate in February’s Democratic primary. Sanders retains his sizable advantage among registered
independents and new voters, men, and younger voters. However, Clinton has made significant gains in
the past two months with registered Democrats, women, and older voters.

Currently, Clinton holds a 48% to 45% lead over Bernie Sanders in the 2016 cycle’s first primary.
This reverses the lead Sanders held in Monmouth’s September poll. He led Clinton by 43% to 36% when
Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, and Jim Webb were included in the poll, and by an even larger 49% to 41%
margin when the supporters of those three candidates were reallocated to their second choices. Support
for Martin O’Malley (3%) in the current poll is basically unchanged from two months ago.

Sanders retains the same advantage he held two months ago among certain voting blocs. He
leads Clinton among men by 54% - 37% similar to his edge in September (51% - 40%); among voters
under age 50 by 54% - 36%, also similar to two months ago (51% - 40%); and among registered
independents and new voters who are likely to vote for the first time in February by 59% - 35%, again
similar to September (53% - 34%).

Clinton, on the other hand, has reversed deficits she held among women – now leading Sanders
56% - 37% compared to trailing 42% - 47% in September – and among voters age 50 and older – now
leading 56% - 38% compared to trailing 42% - 47% two months ago. Clinton has also taken a sizable
57% - 35% lead among registered Democrats, a group that will make up the bulk of February’s primary
electorate. She and Sanders were tied 46% - 46% among this group in September.

Read more: http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/ab385337-2d62-493e-b695-f4350bd8f4d1.pdf

[VanillaRhapsody]

1. Whoops....there goes the ballgame!

[Tom Rinaldo]

11. It's November silly

And Hillary just had a really good month. Good on her, but NH is still very tight even with that. I believe she's had ads out for awhile but Bernie just started. There are months to go before a single vote is cast, plenty of time for both good and bad news cycles to move numbers around.

[VanillaRhapsody]

12. You keep telling yourself that silly...

Good luck digging out of that hole.....you guys have already flung all the poo at her you can think of and she is STILL winning. Or are you guys sandbagging your criticism of her? Holding out on us???

[Tom Rinaldo]

13. I dare you to fnd one negative thing I've said about Hillary n/t

[VanillaRhapsody]

14. Did I say you did personally?

I see that Bernie logo there on the bottom left though....and you are on DU...

[Tom Rinaldo]

17. You said "you guys" so you included me in your comment

You didn't try to fudge it by saying something lame like "most Sanders supporters". Yes I support Sanders. So? I repeat, where have I said anything negative about Hillary let alone "throw poo" at her? Feel free to search my Journal.

[VanillaRhapsody]

18. Yes you guys as in Bernie Supporters...

You do support him right?

Tea Partiers deny their racists in thier midsts the same way.....not me...."here are no racists in the TeaParty....because I personally havent said racist shit....there are no racist tea partiers....

[SunSeeker]

2. K & R

[bigdarryl]

3. If (and that's a big if) Hillary wins both NH and Iowa this race is OVER!!!!

[hollowdweller]

4. I'm still for Sanders but Clinton is really on her game.

Sanders holds the positions I like the most but it's impossible to deny Hillary is doing great.

First she is much more personal speaking in public than Sanders.

Also she has opened up several really good attacks on the GOP, making them look stupid on policy and also mocking them. I think this is really important for the next dem president to do like Reagan did. Mock the GOP and try to ruin their brand, try to get a majority in congress.

I'm really hoping she stays on her game. Also hope Sanders or somebody really attacks her in the debates so she has practice against the GOP although just based on history she knows what she is in for.

[Nye Bevan]

5. Given the similar demographics and proximity to Vermont, if Sanders loses NH it's basically over.

Sanders needs a convincing win in NH to be even remotely credible going forwards.

[pnwmom]

6. Once again, this is a TIE, not a lead for either candidate.

When a result is within the margin of error (which for this poll is 4.9%) then all that can be said is that the race is too close to call -- a statistical tie. Which is the only kind of tie you get in a poll.

Meaning, if another sample was drawn from the same population of voters, then there is a 95% likelihood that the result of that sample would be within 4.9% of this one.

But reporters like to report "small leads" because it's more interesting than to have to keep repeating the same thing -- that they're neck and neck.

[brooklynite]

10. THIS is a tie - but 2 of past three have favored Clinton

In Aug-Sept, all polls favored Sanders. There's a shift in there somewhere.

[pnwmom]

16. I don't see that as a shift. Just the typical result when you have several polls

within the margin of error.

But don't worry, I also object when proponents of other candidates talk about a "lead" within the margin of error.

[George II]

7. Can't say I'm surprised.

[William769]

8. Oops.

[Historic NY]

9. Interesting.

[turbinetree]

15. I think, I will support a progressive...............................

that has been at it since 1960's, and in fact the one progressive which has ...................

http://election.democraticunderground.com/128017387

http://www.thenation.com/article/bernies-burlington-city-sustainable-future/



Honk-------------for a political revolution Bernie 2016