Trump Has Big Lead In Iowa

[brooklynite]

Source: One America News

Washington, D.C., July 31, 2015 – One America News Network, “OAN”, a credible source for 24/7 national and international news, released today its most recent 2016 Republican and Democratic Presidential Polling Results for Iowa conducted by Gravis Marketing. The poll results show that GOP Presidential candidate Donald Trump has a commanding lead with 30.9% support among Republicans. Presidential Candidate Scott Walker comes in second with 15.4%. In third is Jeb Bush with 10.0% followed by Bobby Jindal at 7.2%. Mike Huckabee rounds out the top five with 6.0%.

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Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton leads with just over a majority at 50.8% with Bernie Sanders bringing in a strong showing of 24%. No other announced candidate has more than 5%.

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...snip...

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 670 registered voters in Iowa regarding the presidential election. The sample includes 277 Republican Caucus participants, 236 Democratic Caucus participants, and 207 planning to vote in 2016, but will not participate in the primary elections. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.8% [6.5% for the Republican Caucus/6.4% for the Democratic Caucus]. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted on July 29th using interactive voice response, IVR, technology and weighted separately for each population in the question presented. The poll was conducted for One America News Network.

Read more: http://www.oann.com/trump-has-big-lead-in-iowa/

[dsc]

1. they aren't a very good pollster

and I have no idea why Elizabeth Warren would be polled since she isn't running. In short, I wouldn't trust this poll when it is different from others.

[bigdarryl]

36. And if those polls showed Sanders in the lead or close to Hillary

You would be jumping up and down

[dsc]

37. No first I am not a Bernie supporter

I am deciding between Hillary and O'Malley and second, here is what I mean about that pollster.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2014/05/21/the_worst_poll_in_america.html

There's always one, and so far in 2014, Gravis Marketing is in the lead for the prestigious Strategic Vision Award for Botched Polling. In Texas, its final poll of Sen. John Cornyn's primary gave him a weak 43–28 lead over Rep. Steve Stockman. This was 25 points off—Cornyn beat Stockman, one of the laziest campaigners in recent Texas memory, by a 59–19 margin. (Other anti-Cornyn candidates split the rest.)

In Kentucky, Gravis closed out with a poll that found Mitch McConnell up by 14 points—48 to 34 over Matt Bevin. When I met Bevin at CPAC, he pointed out (not incorrectly) that he was burning a trail across the state, quite a contrast to Stockman. Gravis was slightly less wrong this time, as Bevin won 35 percent of the vote. But McConnell won 60 percent, for a 25-point margin that more than doubled Gravis'. The poll that gives the most hope to insurgents does so by being wildly off.

I have never been one to just believe polls because I like what the say.

[DCBob]

2. So does Hillary!!

Frankly I am bit surprised Bernie hasn't gained much on Hillary in this key first state.

[olddad56]

3. what a list of GOP candidates. Send in the clowns.

[George II]

24. They're running out of colors for the bar chart!

[heaven05]

4. head clown of clown bus

has been promoted, temporarily, to driver. How nice of the backward, ignorant minions of the RW voter base. To hell with trump and his goddamn party of racist pigs.

[BillZBubb]

5. If I was a repug candidate and I was behind Jindal, I'd quit the party.

Or Walker, or Trump, or Bush. OK, I could never be a repug candidate. What a lineup of clowns.

[calimary]

6. Whoa - look where rand paul is.

Wasn't he last year's "Second Coming"?

[lunasun]

8. The idiot voters liked his daddy better

fail

[lunasun]

7. Never heard of the poll firm. <700 voters What say the main sources ?

[dsc]

13. that is actually a reasonable size for the sample

Most national polls have samples in that neighborhood.

[ram2008]

9. Almost 7 percent margin or error

And why is warren in the poll?? She's not running...

But anyway go trump!

[dsc]

14. that is not how MOE works

the MOE of this poll is 3.8 not 7. The +/- is understood, you don't double the stated MOE.

[ram2008]

15. I thought it said MoE 6.4%, must've misread somewhere

Oh wait, here's where I got confused: "The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.8% 6.5% for the Republican Caucus/6.4% for the Democratic Caucus." Why does it say that?

[Godhumor]

21. The 3.8% is for Obama approval rating, the 6+% is for the caucuses

Everyone got asked about Obama, but then the questions split depending on the party of the participant.

So yes, the MOE is ridiculously high for the caucus questions.

[Vincardog]

22. Warren is there to split the liberal vote. GO TEAM

[cosmicone]

11. Go Hillary!!!! n/t

[Still In Wisconsin]

12. LOL Scott Walker!

You're losing to tRump!

[jimlup]

16. This is honestly surprising

That such a large majority of my fellow citizens who call themselves Republicans are this stupid is frankly astounding.

[Sunlei]

19. If I was republican I would vote for Donald Trump, he is the best they have.

[jimlup]

25. I get your point

and that really is a sad state of affairs isn't it? I'd put the man slightly to the right of Adolf.

[Sunlei]

26. It's a 'Republican problem' , they deserve to be sad.

[LibDemAlways]

28. It shouldn't surprise you at all. Fox "News"

and reichwing radio exist to make and keep them stupid so that they vote against their own best interests. It's a simple formula, and it works. Liberals bad, conservatives good. I'm looking forward to watching the documentary about the father who went from being a Kennedy Democrat to a lunatic tea partier thanks to an addiction to right wing media. I have an aunt who went down the same path.

[callous taoboy]

17. Go Trump!

[Sunlei]

18. easy to see the top ten republicans for their fox TV debate. 'The Donald' will eat those nine alive!

Now some republican baggers are starting to whine that Mr. Trump is a Democratic plant and spy.

[JCMach1]

20. Flawed poll... Anyone think Jindal is at 7%?

[cpwm17]

23. We're all gonna die!

[left-of-center2012]

27. Why?

Why do they include Warren and Biden when they are not running?

[rladdi]

29. I hope Trump wins the primary. All voters should vote for him. Then the GOP will again suffer

a huge defeat. I think Bernie Sanders has a great chance of winning over Clinton 2. It would be refreshing to have a President like Sanders and his views.

[lark]

33. If FL let me vote in the Repug primary, I'd vote for Trump.

Just to fuck with them. Nah, I guess not really. I'd rather vote for Bernie than against Trump.

[Binkie The Clown]

30. Trump/Palin - The Democrat's dream ticket. n/t

[geek tragedy]

31. "“OAN”, a credible source for 24/7 national and international news,"

When an outfit has to claim to be credible, they probably aren't.

Polling caucusgoers is notoriously difficult.

[Bossy Monkey]

38. Egg-zackly! Think the AP should put this in every lede n/t

[lark]

32. Too funny, Christie and Rubio don't make the cut if this trend stays true.

Couldn't happen to 2 more deserving creeps.

[bucolic_frolic]

35. Teeeeeeee-Rump!!!!!!!!!! Father of

the big game hunters!

Where is Mr. Huckabee when man kills God's creations for sport and trophy and (sick) fun?

Oh ....... destroying nature is good for Republicans so God
must have put nature here for them to abuse

[Andrej28]

39. Unlike the other Republican candidates, Trump has something to say.

I don't agree with it, but it's dramatically different from the meaningless mushy pablum being dished out by the other candidates.