Suffolk University Poll Shows Sanders Closing Gap on Clinton in New Hampshire

[brooklynite]

Source: Suffolk University

Sen. Bernie Sanders is beginning to show some life against Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire with the Democratic presidential primary there less than eight months away, according to a Suffolk University poll of likely Granite State Democratic primary voters.

Clinton, the former secretary of state, was the choice of 41 percent, followed by Vermonter Sanders (31 percent), Vice President Joe Biden (7 percent), former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (3 percent), and former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee and former Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia tied at 1 percent. Fifteen percent of likely Democrats were undecided.

“Most political observers felt that Hillary Clinton’s large early lead among Democratic voters would eventually shrunk a bit over time,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “But in New Hampshire right now, the lead has shrunk a lot, and this is a much different Democratic primary race than we are seeing in other states so far.”

The poll depicts a clear gender gap, with Clinton carrying women 47 percent to 28 percent but trailing Sanders among men 35 percent to 32 percent. Geographically, Clinton easily carried the central and highly populated southern counties of Rockingham and Hillsborough, but Sanders led 47 percent to 26 percent in the five counties in northern and western New Hampshire, including Cheshire, Coos, Grafton, and Sullivan counties—which border his home state—and Carroll County

Read more: http://www.suffolk.edu/news/60069.php#.VYBwEflVhBc

[Wilms]

1. I see a cabinet position in HRC's future.

She can do a lot of good in the right places.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. If The U S was as homogeneous as NH HRC would have a problem but then the U S would be a shitty...

If The U S was as homogeneous as NH HRC would have a problem but then the U S would be a shitty place to live:

Clinton continues to be dominant nationally with every segment of the Democratic electorate- she's over 60% with liberals, moderates, women, men, Hispanics, whites, and voters in every age group and she's polling at 83% with African Americans. The lack of racial diversity in New Hampshire is one reason Sanders is coming closer to her there given her dominance with black voters nationally.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/06/walker-bush-rubio-lead-gop-field-clinton-still-dominant.html#more

BTW, the last three presidents have all lost the homogeneous New Hampshire primary while the last six presidents have all won the heterogeneous South Carolina primary.

[Wilms]

9. It's the 10 point spread.

That's impressive.

And I'm aware of the history regarding NH winners becoming losers. You may WANT Bernie to win there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. I suspect that a lot of insurgent campaigns, Democratic and Republican, die in South Carolina

I suspect that a lot of insurgent campaigns, Democratic and Republican die in South Carolina, because South Carolina voters are more representative of the party as a whole than the states that precede it on the primary calendar.

[Veldrick]

12. NH is right next to Vermont

How's Sanders doing in States neighboring Arkansas?

[Wilms]

13. Considering the states that surround Arkansas...

...let me help you make your point.

You seem to be saying that Bernie, as a New Englander, may be enjoying a home-town boost.

I would agree.

[George II]

2. I see two flaws in the reporting of this poll.

First, we don't know what the numbers were in the previous poll - they aren't mentioned in the article. Did he go from 30 to 31, or 5% to 31%? A change of only a few percent would be minimal and within the margin of error.

Second, the previous poll was in March - almost three months ago and long before Sanders announced that he was a candidate. In March people didn't know if he was in or not, and he hadn't said whether he was going to run as an independent or a Democrat.

So, although Sanders "closed the gap" on Clinton, being a hypothetical candidate when the prior poll was taken, if he DIDN'T close the gap he'd be in serious trouble. This isn't an overly impressive poll result.

[Tom Rinaldo]

3. " This isn't an overly impressive poll result.'

I agree this report has the flaws you point to and obviously Sanders should expect to be "closing the gap" if the last poll was in March...

But 10 points isn't an overly impressive lead for Hillary Clinton now either, and that is the more important take away.

[immoderate]

4. You are not "overly impressed," you say?

OTOH, some might say that pulling within ten points of the acknowledged inheritor, is quite note worthy.

--imm

[Veldrick]

11. Pulling from what to ten? Nt

[immoderate]

14. From wherever he started.

--imm

[Gamecock Lefty]

5. Bernie Not Leading in NH???

Are you sure? With all that excitement Bernie is still not leading in NH? Wow, just wow.

There is a long way to go, but I like the Hillary campaign roll-out so far. She is doing just fine and despite the media hacks and other hacks on DU, she seems to be appealing to voters.

[frylock]

8. Just keep telling yourself it's going to be okay.

[Hawaii Hiker]

7. I'd be wary of anything coming from Suffolk

Remember this!!!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/10/09/suffolk_calls_nc_va_fl_for_romney_will_no_longer_poll_states.html

[cascadiance]

15. According to this story the deficit in two different polls narrowed from 12 to 10 points...

In the one yesterday, it shows Hillary Clinton with 44% and Bernie Sanders with 32%.

This newer poll released today shows Clinton with 41% and Bernie Sanders with 31%.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2015/06/16/two-primary-polls-show-bernie-sanders-striking-distance-hillary-clinton/EOntAEfSS5WLS2lta2ax4K/story.html