Ed Miliband narrowly beats David Cameron in snap poll after leaders' debate

[brooklynite]

Source: The Guardian

An always tense, sometimes disjointed and occasionally cacophonous seven-way live TV leaders debate saw Ed Miliband just shave ahead of his rivals, according to a snap Guardian/ICM poll conducted after the event.

Labour, aware of Miliband’s poor personal ratings before the campaign, will be pleased he was at least matching the normally more popular David Cameron, according to ICM and the three other post-debate polls.

Miliband branded the prime minister as an invisible man who said little in the two-hour debate on ITV. But the prime minister will be pleased that he emerged from a safety-first performance largely unscathed from his only head-to-head television clash with Miliband.

...snip...

The Guardian/ICM post-debate poll showed that Miliband won the debate by a whisker over Cameron – by 25% to 24%. Ukip’s Nigel Farage came third on 19%, the Scottish National party leader Nicola Sturgeon was fourth on 17%, with the Liberal Democrats leader Nick Clegg trailing in fifth place on 9%, ahead of Natalie Bennett for the Greens on 3% and Plaid Cymru’s Leanne Wood on 2%.


Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/02/leaders-debate-labour-miliband-conservatives-david-cameron

[T_i_B]

1. Didn't watch it....

....as I think it's more useful to attend a local hustings, given the nature of our Parliamentary system.

Looking on Tw@tter, all I can see is the various partisans declaring victory for their party leader. And we already knew that Nigel Farage is a massive knobhead anyway.

[LeftishBrit]

2. All polls seem to give slightly different results

FWIW, my centrist friend and I both ended up with the same choice- Nicola Sturgeon, whom neither of us can vote for, due to not living in Scotland!

All the female, non-Westminster-mainstream-party, leaders seemed more likeable and sincere than the Westminster-mainstream-party ones, perhaps just because they weren't repeating the same things that they'd already said in multiple episodes of Prime Minister's Question Time. Ed was IMO the best of the latter bunch. Dave's tendency to blame all our problems on the last government is getting a bit old after 5 years.

By far the worst was Nigel Farage: pandering like mad to the worst prejudices of the population, and appearing belligerent and rude at times. All the others, whether one liked them or not, gave an adequate performance, under the artificial conditions that they were set.

[Joe Chi Minh]

3. At this stage, that is a very good result for Miliband.

He can expect the best is yet to come.

[Ironing Man]

4. if thats his best....

Miliband should be cruising around at 90% in the polls - we've had 5 years of a government whose pretty much every action, or inaction, can be charactorised as incompetant, negligent or venal. only in the last month have people (statistically) got back financially to the point they were at when Cameron became PM.

in Scotland, which has a single Tory MP, Miliband is less popular than Cameron. Miliband has also spent a good proportion of this parliament being considered less 'Prime Ministerial' than David Cameron by his own voters.

he probably will be PM by mid-May, but leading a weak minority government utterly in hoc to the SNP, and in buying off the SNP, but not having the money to give the same policies to the Labour constituancies of Northern England, he's going to be storing up massive trouble for Labour in 2020.

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. Every bookmaker thinks Cameron is more likely to be PM than Miliband

depressingly:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/prime-minister-after-general-election

They vary, but average at about Cameron having a 59% chance, v. 41% for Miliband (ignoring other possibilities).

[Joe Chi Minh]

6. The bookies always claim the tories are ods on favourtes.

They are more interested in forming opinion than reflecting it. It's normal for the political operatives in the US to set up surveys for that very purpose, as Hunter Thompson mentioned in one of his books merely in passing.

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. They're far more interested in making a profit

which means they cannot offer over-generous odds on Miliband winning if they don't think it will happen. These aren't the results of surveys; they are the odds they are currently offering.

[Joe Chi Minh]

9. No. you don't understand it, MV. That is a far too simplistic understanding

The very fact that the odds are long tends to put the majority of punters off, and the weight of money will go on the favourite and shorter shots.

Moreover, the money they save in taxes under the Tories - indeed, their whole fraudulent, right-wing set-up - would make their Election book seem chump-change, however badly it is made.

[muriel_volestrangler]

10. Oh yes, betting people always want to get less money, don't they?

They change their mind on who to bet for when they hear they might get too much.

Stands to reason, dunnit? It's common sense.

I'd forgotten what exchanges with you were like.

[Joe Chi Minh]

8. I think Labour will get a majority, and the 16/1 offered on a betting exchange

looks good value. I just don't believe the media, who are as bent as a nine-bob watch (or indeed the bookies) in favor of the Tories. And that includes BBC TV.

If Labour don't get a majority and have to cut deals with the SNP, the SNP could well help to keep them honest. My fear I that after the corrupting years with Blair's NuLab(c) his mind might well be converted, but perhaps not his heart. I believe Clinton's advisor, David Axelrod considers him far brighter than his brother, who appears to be an unreformed Blairite.

[Bosonic]

11. Sturgeon denies telling French ambassador she wants the Tories to win the election

Sturgeon denies telling French ambassador she wants the Tories to win the election

Nicola Sturgeon last night denied telling the French ambassador she wanted the Tories to win the election in May in preference to Labour.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) leader has previously said she wants to “lock the Tories out of Government” but was accused last night of secretly wanting a Conservative victory.

The Daily Telegraph made the claim after, it said, seeing a government memo detailing a conversation in February between Ms Sturgeon and Sylvie Bermann, the French Ambassador to the UK.

During their conversation the First Minister was said to have told the ambassador she didn’t want a formal coalition with Labour and would “rather see” David Cameron continue as Prime Minister.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/sturgeon-denies-telling-french-ambassador-she-wants-the-tories-to-win-the-election-10155267.html

[muriel_volestrangler]

12. And the French deny she said that too

At the bottom of that article.

[bemildred]

14. Election 2015: Nicola Sturgeon hits out at 'dirty tricks'

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has accused Whitehall of "dirty tricks" after a report emerged claiming she told a French diplomat she would prefer David Cameron in No 10 over Ed Miliband.

The Daily Telegraph published a civil service memo claiming Scotland's first minister privately said Labour's leader was not "PM material".

Ms Sturgeon said in a tweet the story was "categorically, 100% untrue".

She called for an "urgent inquiry" into the circumstances of the leak.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32177315