Marine Le Pen scores stunning result in French presidential election

[MADem]

Source: The Guardian

With between 18% and 20% of the vote, the far-right candidate has beaten the previous record for Front National

Kim Willsher in Paris
guardian.co.uk, Sunday 22 April 2012 15.17 EDT

...In the run up to Sunday's first round presidential vote, it was hard to find many people in France publicly admitting they intended to vote for Marine Le Pen. Nevertheless between 18% and 20% appear to have done so – a stunning result for the far right.

It was a record for France's Front National, beating the previous best in 2002 when Le Pen's father, Jean-Marie, won his way into the second-round run-off with 17% of votes.

The surprise score reflected not only how Marine, a 43-year-old lawyer, made inroads into the French political landscape during a campaign in which she relentlessly challenged the "established" candidates, but also a deep disillusion with the main parties. She has now become the third force in the presidential campaign and a possible kingmaker in the second-round run-off in two weeks's time.

French opinion polls have a record of underestimating support for the far right. Until now, the high point for the Front National, a presence in Gallic politics since the 1970s, was 2002. It was exactly 10 years ago, when Jean-Marie Le Pen, a one-eyed former stormtrooper, caused a political tsunami and found himself voted into the second round of the presidential election.



Read more: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/22/marine-le-pen-french-election

---

The entire article is worth reading.

[SunSeeker]

1. Sad. Bad economic times bring out the worst in people. nt

[MADem]

3. She's as vitriolic as her father was! Maybe even more so, in a way. nt

[nxylas]

2. Austerity conditions boost fascist candidates

I think this movie is a remake

[MADem]

4. The other big story is that Sarkozy got bested by the socialist Hollande!

Not by much--just a shred, really, but he came in ahead of Nicky. Tough spot for him as an incumbent, really.

I'm not up-to-date on the fine points of that election, but it will be interesting to see what happens in May.

More here--

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/23/french-presidential-election-nicolas-sarkozy-francois-hollande

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Not a surprise. But you've got to wonder if he's in a better position now with Le Pen doing so well.

It's unlikely her 20% will flood to Hollande. If Sarkozy can convince them, he's right-of-center enough in France to potentially gain on Hollande overall and win the runoff. It's going to be tight, but if Sarkozy can hold his 27.08 and then turn around and win over Le Pen's 18.01, that would give him an overall total of 45.9% of the vote, within striking distance of Hollande.

[David__77]

9. You might be surprised.

The constituency of the National Front significantly overlaps the former Communist Party constituency. When PCF abandoned its program, they moved over to fascism to some extent. If the Socialists wage a class-based campaign and really hit out at the financial oligarchy, I think many of the National Front voters would choose them over Sarkozy, puppet of the USA.

[TheWraith]

36. Polls show them breaking two to one in favor of Sarkozy. nt

[ChangoLoa]

37. Which is unusually good for the French Socialist Party. nt

[David__77]

39. That's not too bad, all things considered.

I also imagine that they will be rather uninspired to support either.

[Mass]

46. Actually, polls show about 50 % going to Sarkozy, which is not enough for him to win.

[Mass]

45. It is surprising. It is the first time the incumbent does not come first in the first round.

As for your calculation, it is not going to happen. Sarkozy will be happy if he gets more than 60 % of the Le Pen vote and even less of the center right candidate. Hollande is going to win, short of some very big accident.

[TheWraith]

5. I'm not at all surprised.

Far too many people look at Europe and act like it's some kind of social-democratic/socialist utopia, when the reality is that they have their own right wing and even far right wing just like we do. Some of the issues are different, but some are the same. The reality is that France, Germany, England, Spain, and Italy ALL currently have conservative governments, and many of those countries have substantial and growing far-right movements. They're not inherently more civilized than the US just because most of them have national healthcare; if anything, lacking the US history as a melting pot, racial and ethnic issues are all the stronger in Europe.

[MADem]

7. Well, look at old Nicky. He may have the jazzy young wife, but he's no liberal, not by a long shot.

He looks a bit more centrist when compared to LePen, but that's relative. Hollande is more old-school, but he has got to overcome a bias towards the right on the part of the voters, and he's trying to oust an incumbent as well.

As you note, race/ethnic issues are more of an issue, because those colonial chickens came home to roost, and segments of the population aren't happy with that. Then there's also all the movement of people as a consequence of the EU, and the problem of undocumented workers, which isn't just a US thing.

[dkf]

8. Hollande, Sarkozy heading to French vote runoff

PARIS (AP) — Francois Hollande, a mild-mannered French Socialist, is heading into a presidential runoff election with the upper hand over incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy after winning the most votes in the first round of voting.

However, the nearly one in five voters who chose far right candidate Marine Le Pen may hold the key to victory in the decisive vote on May 6.

Hollande remains favorite to win the runoff after besting Sarkozy in the first round.

If Hollande wins the second round, he would become the first socialist president since 1995. His election could also alter Europe's political and economic landscape.



Read more: http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Hollande-Sarkozy-heading-to-French-vote-runoff-3497359.php#ixzz1sqa0O9o5

[MADem]

10. It's a very interesting race, isn't it? Sarkozy is a rather vulnerable incumbent! nt

[dkf]

11. Just started to pay attention to it.

I read the OP and then realized I didn't know who got the most votes.

Its funny how the right wing person is the protectionist. I guess they are in the mold of Pat Buchanan.

[MADem]

16. I did some reading about her a few years ago--she's really...MEAN.

And her father, who was a force on the far right, was mean, too--it's like a dynasty of far-right shitheads! Much like Buchanan--that slight tinge of racism, if you know what I mean.

She looks so pleasant, though--like a wolf in sheep's clothing!

The far right wants to boot out all the "minorities," dump the Euro, regulate the borders, and roll the clock back to the days of Oooh La La and Maurice Chevalier (I'm joking--but only just).

[trumad]

19. She don't look that pleasant..

[onehandle]

21. First photo of Ann Romney I've seen where she's not smiling like the entitled ninny she is.

She looks severely conservative there.

[IamK]

23. looks like hillary....

[MADem]

42. Why would you post a picture from such a meanspirited web site that makes fun of Clinton?

You got that picture from here:

http://zombietime.com/really_truly_hillary_gallery/

What was your purpose?

The truth is, though Hillary is much older than LePen is, she looks way better. She is certainly a much nicer and better person.

I guess one's spirit does shine through.

[Rex]

52. Okay went and looked at that website, WTF?

Interesting place?

[MADem]

64. It looks like one of those "protest too much" BS slammer sites.

The owner was careful to plonk a little caveat in the verbiage insisting something along the lines of Oh, I'm not political, I just like to collect unflattering pictures of Clinton and have so done for years.

Yeah, and I'm an astronaut!

I don't like that kind of stuff (as I'm sure you figured out! Hee hee!).

[kiva]

54. What Trumad said.

[MADem]

59. Indeed. I found the link above Trumad's post far more disturbing than Trumad's

remark.

[LeftishBrit]

26. Very like Buchanan IMO

Or, for a Europaean like myself, Buchanan is like LePen. In fact, the first time I came across Buchanan was in 2002, when he wrote an article defending Jean-Marie LePen.

Ugh to Buchanan, and ugh to the LePen family. In this case, the nut didn't fall far from the old nut tree.

[MADem]

28. That's the sense I get from her, exactly!

Peas in a pod, then!

[amandabeech]

49. Yes, the party is popular in de-industrialized areas.

LePen wishes to reindustrialize, just like Buchanan.

Buchanan had real problems in his soft racism, but I had to agree with him on the need to make things here for security reasons and to have gainful employment for folks who aren't college material by nature or choice.

[Surya Gayatri]

13. Sark the Shark is reviled by a majority

of the French public, less for his politics than for his arrogant pushiness and overbearing manner. He is often compared to Napoleon, who was also a short man trying to impose himself in a tall man's world.

Opposistion pundits say he only married Carla Bruni (who's a good 6 or 7 cm. taller than him) solely to increase his "stature".

P.S. Hi MADem! What're you doing up so late (or early)? According to my time stamp here in Paris, you posted this at nearly 4 a.m. CET!

[MADem]

14. OMG! As I was reading your post, I got as far as "arrogant" and thought of Napoleon!

I always thought he married Carla so they'd look at her instead of him (nyuck, nyuck!). He does have that George Bush kind of pushiness, but he comes across as brighter than the Shrub--if equally overbearing!

I have a horrible head cold and am unable to sleep. I have had a few naps in the last 10 hours, but I go for ninety minutes or so and them I'm up and about for a bit--I'm on eastern time so it's an hour later, in fact! It doesn't help that it is raining to beat the band and every bone in my body is reminding me of that fact. Good for the flowers, not so fun for me! Eh, I don't get sick that often; I guess it's just my turn!

[Surya Gayatri]

18. Can't breathe when you lie down, huh? So sorry

to hear you're not "in the pink"!

Not surprised with the weird weather you-all are having there in the northeast. The weather maps on MSNBC look just awful.

8 to 12 inches of SNOW expected in western PA and upstate NY, and it's moving your way in MA!

Hunker down and drink lots of hot tea with lemon and honey!

[MADem]

65. The worst is over now, thank heavens!

That was one nasty and miserable cold!

Thanks for the good wishes!

[tsuki]

12. It is amazing to me that they did not mention the issue that really pulled her up in the polls,

Goldman-Sachs. She has been on a rip and tear about Goldman Sachs and the banks. I wonder why the Guardian never mentioned that? (cough-cough)

[MADem]

15. Is there a convergence between Guardian and GS?

I've only been following this election peripherally, but I've found the process fascinating. It looks to get more so in the weeks ahead!

I always thought the Guardian was fairly good at throwing it all out there and seeing what sticks; is there something about them I am missing? My very quick google found them not shy about reporting on GS excesses: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/mar/14/goldman-sachs-director-quits-morally-bankrupt

[Surya Gayatri]

17. What really made her shoot up in the polls was

a backlash against the too-fresh massacre in Toulouse.

Many of my students were completely traumatized by France's most recent incident of "domestic Islamist terrorism".

People want to send a message to whoever comes out on top to deal "forcefully" with the issue.

The first round of voting is used by many electors for this kind of message-sending. Marine Le Pen's unprecedented ascension is such a message.

Who will these Le Pen voters throw their votes to in the second round? Still a big question mark.

[MADem]

29. You are quite right--all politics, is, indeed, local! nt

[tsuki]

35. She is said to be getting a lot of the

young vote because of high unemployment. But she is naming names and pointing fingers, something no other politician is, other than a few weaseling words of non-consequence.

"In a speech that played to populist fears about immigration, unemployment and the power of financial markets, Le Pen painted Goldman Sachs as an all-powerful institution that controlled entire nations as well as the European Central Bank.

"Goldman Sachs topples governments everywhere," she told supporters in Lyon, southeast France.

"Goldman Sachs places its men at the top of euro zone countries. Goldman Sachs puts its man at the head of the European Central Bank," she went on. "In Greece, Italy, the ECB, oligarchs have taken power."

The ECB's current head, Mario Draghi, was a former Goldman Sachs executive before heading the Bank of Italy, while technocrat governments have taken over in Athens and Rome amid the debt crisis.""

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/04/07/us-lepen-goldmansachs-idUSBRE83609M20120407

Who will Le Pen voters throw their votes to? Good question.

[muriel_volestrangler]

38. Not as much of the youth vote as the age groups for typical parents

18-24: 18%
25-34: 20%
35-44: 23%
45-59: 19%
60+: 13%

From the link in reply #22. But you might have expected a more liberal outlook from youth than that, I suppose.

[dixiegrrrrl]

62. And she is right in what she says about GS...

While here in the USA.....from the top down....*crickets*

[freshwest]

40. That was my thought, a reaction to that. I don't see how it didn't affect the vote. Hope they work

With the socialist elements and maintain their social safety net there.

I was surprised that any LePen would get the nod by the voters, that's all I can think this was, reaction.

[muriel_volestrangler]

22. Banks and finance are not high on the list of reasons given for voting for her

http://www.ipsos.fr/ipsos-public-affairs/actualites/2012-04-22-comprendre-le-vote-des-francais

In French (and Google Translate doesn't do the scribd document), but the issues for Le Pen voters (pages 18 & 19; they were asked to pick 3) which were more important than for the average were:
L’immigration (62%, v. 24% for the whole electorate)
L’insécurité (44%, v. 19%)
Le fonctionnement de la justice (12%, v. 6%)

which I think can translate as immigration, (lack of) safety, and law and order. The option closest to 'Goldman Sachs' or banks generally, "La crise économique et financière", was important for just 34% of Le Pen voters, compared to 44% generally; though since that got most importance for Bayou and Sarkozy voters, as 'the public deficit' did, that may often be taken as meaning "we need austerity". However, "le chômage" (unemployment) was a concern for just 21% of Le Pen voters - less than for any of Sarkozy, Bayou, Hollande or Mélenchon; the overall figure was 30%. "Les inégalités sociales" (social inequality) was a concern for 15% of Le Pen voters, compared with 25% overall. Hollande's figure was 38%, and Mélenchon 50%.

I really can't see that Goldman Sachs was a significant factor in Le Pen's success. It was the old-fashioned right wing concerns - particularly immigration.

[MADem]

31. I think you're right--the keys are immigration policy and "law and order"

with the LePen crowd, it would seem.

[pampango]

24. Reuters had a story on this two weeks ago: French far-right leader blasts Goldman Sachs, euro.

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen said on Saturday U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS.N) "topples governments everywhere" and the euro is "devastating" for her country as she sought to boost her flagging campaign to become president.

In a speech that played to populist fears about immigration, unemployment and the power of financial markets, Le Pen painted Goldman Sachs as an all-powerful institution that controlled entire nations as well as the European Central Bank.

Le Pen, a 43-year-old former lawyer, also took aim at a favorite target, the euro, which she proposes to dump, calling it a "devastating ideology" that aimed to bring about a federal Europe.

The National Front is facing pressure from Sarkozy's recent swing to the right. The president has won more far-right support by pledging a crackdown on immigration and threatening to pull France out of Europe's open-borders system.

Last month's murders in the southern city of Toulouse, in which al Qaeda-inspired gunman Mohamed Merah killed three soldiers, a rabbi and three Jewish children before police commandos shot him dead at his apartment building, have also nudged up approval of the law-and-order president.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/07/us-lepen-goldmansachs-idUSBRE83609M20120407

Don't know about a Guardian-Goldman connection, but apparently there's no effective Reuters-Goldman link.

[MADem]

32. I might have not understood the focus of the post.

It could be what you are talking of, here, with LePen's euro bashing, and nothing to do with Guardian at all. It just seemed to me that the post was suggesting that Guardian didn't wanna talk about it (and since UK isn't a euro nation...I'm not clear on that aspect).

[amandabeech]

50. I wonder if Le Pen's vote was boosted by those horrible shootings in Toulouse?

If "l'insecurite" (sp) was a big factor in her vote, perhaps this is the high point of her popularity, if
"Toulouses" do not become common.

[lovuian]

61. the dissatisfaction agains the Euro

is making its way all over Europe
who supports it?

[pampango]

67. "Who supports it?" Certainly not the far-right parties. They are all against the Euro. Perhaps

it is the left. Hollande has campaigned against the "austerity budgets" being pushed to prop up the Euro, but he hasn't campaigned against the Euro itself.

[LeftishBrit]

27. From next door (UK), this doesn't seem to be the main reason

Economic frustration certainly plays a big part, but in this case, it's mainly a matter of blaming the immigrants for taking 'our' jobs, using 'our' public services, etc. Though there is also an undirected anti-establishment anger, which may actually lead to some LePen voters switching to Hollande as the opposition candidate - though a majority of them will probably either vote for Sarkozy or not vote at all.

The Guardian are normally pretty critical of the banks, so I don't think there is any particular reason for them not to emphasize this aspect.

And LePen (the father) did worryingly well in 2002, when no one was particularly worrying about the banks; so I do think it's much more a combination of anti-immigrant sentiment and general anti-government frustration.

In many ways, the LePen voters are the French version of teabaggers.

[MADem]

43. "In many ways, the LePen voters are the French version of teabaggers."

That was my impression of them too, from across the water! Teabaggers with better food!

[JCMach1]

20. She combined the old National Front anti-Immigrant stance with a Protectionist, Economic Nationalism

Because of that, she was seen as a viable candidate as an option due to the Sarkozy's failure with the economy.

Hollande will now go on to win as the National Front will either stay home, or vote against Sarkozy simply because they don't like him.

Hollande wins walking away 54-46%

[MADem]

41. You're not the only one predicting that, though others think Sarkozy can pull it off

with his magic power of incumbency!

[JCMach1]

44. Only if he pulls 'W' tricks

Hollande will take the victory, but the victory will be an anti-Sarkozy one...

There will be a parliamentary election in June I believe. It will be interesting to see if the results mirror the first round of the Presidential race. Or, is the National Front an asterisk (or is that Asterix???)

The left (including Hollande) really needs to wake-up to see that the anti-Sarkozy vote is also anti-liberal economic policy.

Austerity also just went down in flames (at the hands of the Right) in Holland.

Interesting days.

[amandabeech]

51. asterisk.

With kudos to my 8th grade grammar teacher, Miss McKinley, who smoked a quick cigar in the janitor's closet while we did our work.

[JCMach1]

53. was trying to be punny...

**sigh**

[amandabeech]

55. Okay. My sense of humor isn't there today.

Love the viking, though. Swedish, Norwegian or Danish?

[JCMach1]

56. It is Asterix the Gaul

Cartoon... I learned a good bit of my French reading those comics

[amandabeech]

57. Well, it seems that Asterix the Gaul is somewhat worked up these days. n/t

[MADem]

58. Some are saying that Sarkozy can snatch up the LePen crowd by appealing to their fear/loathing of

unrestrained immigration and gay rights, and warning them that if they let Hollande in, it will be a case of "I'll give you something to cry about!" He just has to take a half step to the right and issue a few dire warnings to rile 'em up sufficiently to get them to the polls.

I don't pretend to have a feel for the actual dynamic on the street there--that's just a competing theory I have heard.

[Mass]

47. Not in France...

JMach's numbers are conservative poll numbers... Some polls give Hollande as high as 56 or 57%. My bet is on 54%.

Hollande will certainly have the three votes in this family (and the votes of my entire family in France).

[MADem]

66. Wow--this IS going to be worth watching!

If you hear any more I hope you will add to the conversation--Sarkozy getting the push off will be a very big deal for Europe, overall.

[Arugula Latte]

30. Merde.

[msanthrope]

33. Thread win. nt

[MADem]

34. Hee hee--I agree with msanthrope! nt

[Odin2005]

48. Fascists have already taken over Hungary.

Europe is SOOOOO fucked.

[pampango]

60. Very true. Krugman references a friend's post on the situation in Hungary.

Frank Bruni Does Hungary

Bruni’s beat and mine don’t overlap much, but he’s in Budapest, and doesn’t like what he sees.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/24/frank-bruni-does-hungary/

Round Up the Usual Scapegoats

How do you know if a real storm is brewing — or if you’re just reacting to a few passing clouds?

That’s a question that many Hungarians and people keeping an eye on the country are asking these days. Iren Kollanyi, 61, is one of them.

She has lived here her entire life, through decades of Communism, the adjustment to a whole new system and Hungary’s admission into the European Union in 2004.

But the last two years have been among the most peculiar. A conservative party won two-thirds of the seats in Parliament and something akin to legislative carte blanche, which it has used in ways that may spell trouble. At the same time, a party far to its right has become a foul-tempered, foul-mouthed player in the country’s affairs.

Pay attention to Hungary. It may not have any great economic heft, and it’s home to only about 10 million people with a tropism toward beer and a talent for brooding. But it could turn out to be a test case of the E.U.’s imperiled sway in these days of debt and austerity. Brussels and Budapest have clashed already over the Hungarian government’s attempts at tighter control of the news media, the judiciary and the central bank.

Hungary could also be a window into just how potently economic anxiety fans the flames of bigotry. E.U. membership hasn’t brought Hungarians the broad prosperity they had hoped for; the country has had severe budgetary woes of late. And the far-right party I mentioned, Jobbik, has converted these disappointments into questions about the country’s orientation to the West and, for good measure, about its supposed coddling of Jews, gays and Roma: Hungary’s trusty trinity of scapegoats.

This month Jobbik introduced a bill that refers to homosexuality as a perversion and bans its promotion in language so vague, opponents say, that two men or two women holding hands in public could theoretically be imprisoned.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/24/opinion/bruni-in-hungary-the-usual-scapegoats.html?_r=1&hp

[dixiegrrrrl]

63. Chris Hedges pointed out the strong possibility of fascism

in one of the many talks I have been listening to.
I am sorry I cannot give a correct link, I listen to lot of his stuff.
But his point was how the emegence of the right historically comes after economic crisis like this
AND one mark of it is how different groups are shunned and scapegoated.

As indeed we are seeing with the RW here in the USA.