Ukraine Says Truce Is Taking Hold as Lavrov Sees Progress

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Source: Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- Ukraine signaled that the latest attempt at peace in its easternmost regions may be starting to take hold, while Russia cited progress, even amid what it called efforts by the U.S. and Europe to derail dialogue.

While pro-Russian rebels attacked the army near the city of Donetsk last night, there were no cease-fire breaches after 12:45 a.m. local time, Ukraine’s military said Thursday. The deal is producing tangible results and there are no “ideal truces,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in Moscow. The separatists said some fighting and shelling is continuing.

Guns falling silent would mark the biggest progress since the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France sealed the cease-fire in Minsk, Belarus, on Feb. 12. Since then, insurgents have seized a key transport hub and the U.S. and the Europe Union have threatened more sanctions against Russia, which denies backing the rebels militarily. The hryvnia has hit record lows as the government races to obtain emergency funding.

“Militants fired at the village of Pisky with small arms for an hour from 11:45 p.m. but no other violations of the truce were recorded,” Defense Ministry spokesman Anatoliy Stelmakh said Thursday. “There was no shelling at Mariupol, Luhansk, or Debaltseve during the night.”

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-26/ukraine-says-cease-fire-is-taking-hold-as-lavrov-sees-progress

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1. US General: No Red Line in Ukraine to Trigger NATO Response

PENTAGON—

The top U.S. general in Europe has indicated there is no red line that Russia can cross that would lead NATO to step in and help Ukraine militarily.

“NATO is after all first a political alliance, and then a military alliance,” General Philip Breedlove, head of U.S. European Command, told reporters Wednesday at the Pentagon. Some NATO nations now are involved in training and other missions in Ukraine, he said, “but as an alliance, the answer is no.”

The Obama administration remains undecided on whether to provide lethal, defensive weapons to Ukraine, according to testimony from Breedlove and other U.S. defense officials at a hearing on how to respond to emergency security challenges in Europe.

Some in Washington are concerned that such a move might escalate Russia's military campaign in Ukraine. Others feel it would help Ukrainians, who Breedlove has told VOA are “overmatched.”

http://www.voanews.com/content/us-general-says-no-red-line-in-ukraine-to-trigger-nato-response/2659687.html

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2. Putin Scores Victory Over Ukraine Allies in Bond Market Collapse

(Bloomberg) -- Russia is damaging Ukraine’s economy faster than the U.S. and its European allies can provide support.

That’s the conclusion of investors, who have sent the price of Ukrainian bonds to record lows even as the country awaits $17.5 billion of emergency loans from the International Monetary Fund. Its currency, the hryvnia, has lost about a half of it value this month, forcing the central bank to tighten capital controls to keep money from fleeing the country.

As a separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine pits Russia against its Cold War-era foes, the conflict is also playing out in the trading rooms of Wall Street banks and hedge funds. Investors trying to anticipate the next move of rebels backed by Russian President Vladimir Putin are also weighing the ability of the Kiev government’s allies to counter the Kremlin’s economic maneuvers as Ukraine seeks to restructure its $16 billion of foreign-currency debt.

“It is clear the country has a powerful neighbor intent on destabilizing it, while the West simply doesn’t care enough about Ukraine to do anything with significant costs attached,” Paul McNamara, a money manager who helps oversee $6.3 billion of debt including Russian bonds at GAM UK Ltd., said by phone from London on Feb. 25. “I don’t think Ukrainian bonds and the hryvnia are especially cheap.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-26/putin-scores-victory-over-ukraine-allies-in-bond-market-collapse

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3. Kerry Hints Decision on U.S. Sanctions Against Russia Could Come Soon

WASHINGTON — U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has said additional sanctions against Russia are "teed up" should events in eastern Ukraine warrant them, and he suggested a decision may come soon.

U.S. leaders will look at whether the Minsk cease-fire plan was being implemented or if there was "some other effort that may be taking place which would immediately merit a much more significant response," Kerry told lawmakers on Wednesday.

A cease-fire negotiated in the Belarusian capital earlier this month was due to go into force on Feb. 15 but was flouted by pro-Russian separatists who continued to fight Ukrainian troops in a successful effort to take the town of Debaltseve.

However, the cease-fire appeared to be slowly coming into force. In rebel-held eastern Ukraine, pro-Russian separatists were withdrawing heavy guns from the front.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/kerry-hints-decision-on-u-s-sanctions-against-russia-could-come-soon/516557.html

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4. Russia’s Quest for Balkan Influence and Bases

By: Stephen Blank

(Source: Wikimedia Commons)

Russia has long harbored an expansionist drive to the Balkans and the Eastern Mediterranean. And the prelude or precondition for Moscow to be able to make real progress toward securing its influence in these areas has been its domination of Ukraine and the Black Sea (see EDM, September 22, 2014; October 16, 2014). Furthermore, it is quite apparent that Moscow believes its main geopolitical threat is European integration (see EDM, May 29, 2014). Therefore, it is no surprise that Russian foreign policy has invested heavily in raising its influence throughout this entire geographic expanse in order to break up the Euro-Atlantic community.

No sooner had the new Greek government been elected, Russia made clear its interest and readiness to support Greece in its economic crisis and to expand military-technical collaboration with the country, should Athens request it (Mid.ru, February 11). This led to a great deal of, as yet, unconfirmed speculation that Russia is asking Greece for a naval or other base there. What these reports have apparently done is conflated the more authoritative accounts, based on statements by Cypriot Prime Minister Nicos Anastasiades, which were originally presented in Greek and Cypriot sources (Cyprus-mail.com, February 10). These reports then led RIA Novosti to claim that an agreement would soon be signed from Paphos Air Force Base (RIA Novosti, February 9). Russian interest in Paphos and acquiring Cypriot and Balkan military bases is longstanding. Moscow has sought Paphos as a base since at least 2012–2013, as well as a naval base on the Adriatic at Bar in Montenegro. And it has previously acquired a land base at Nis in Serbia, ostensibly for humanitarian operations (see Jamestownfoundation.blogspot.com, November 30, 2011).

So far, Moscow has apparently not reached host-country agreements for any of these Mediterranean-region bases—with the exception of Nis—and the recent reports about Russo-Greek talks on the subject raised a media firestorm. Numerous Western and Russian sources have commented on the new extreme-left-and-right Greek government’s links to figures like Russian neo-imperialist and Eurasianist ideologue Aleksandr Dugin as well as other members of Russia’s elite establishment. Consequently, Russian interests in splitting Greece from its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union make perfect sense for Vladimir Putin, especially as he has been trying to accomplish this goal for a decade now, if not longer (Moscow Times, February 4). But while these incidents have received the most Western media coverage in the past few weeks, they are not isolated developments.

http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=43583&tx_ttnews[backPid]=786&no_cache=1#.VO7PNyh8vzI

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5. Russia, Greek Cyprus sign military deal on use of Mediterranean ports

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Greek Cypriot counterpart Nicos Anastasiades signed an agreement on Wednesday to give Russian military ships access to Greek Cypriot ports.

"We signed a number of documents regarding our military cooperation. For example regarding the entrance of our ships to Cypriot ports," Putin told journalists.

Ties between Russia and the West have plummeted in the wake of the Ukraine crisis, but Putin said the ships allowed to dock at Greek Cypriot ports would mostly be used in international anti-terrorism and piracy efforts.

"I don't think this should worry anyone," he said.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/world/155787/russia-greek-cyprus-sign-military-deal-on-use-of-mediterranean-ports

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6. Brussels blesses merger between Daimler and Russian military vehicle producer

Under the EU Merger Regulation, the European Commission has approved the creation of a joint venture by Daimler AG, of Germany, and Kamaz OJSC, of Russia, a producer of trucks, but also of a large variety of armoured vehicles, some of which are in use in the Ukraine conflict.

According to the Commission press release, Daimler is active in the development, manufacture and distribution of automotive products (mainly passenger cars, trucks, vans and buses), while Kamaz is active in the production of trucks, trailers, tractors, chassis, engines, power units, and multipurprose armoured vehicles.

The joint venture will be active in the production of light and heavy trucks, and in the welding and painting of truck cabins. The Commission's investigation found that the proposed acquisition will not raise any competition concerns, because the joint venture will only be active in Russia and Belarus. The Commission examined the operation under the simplified merger review procedure.

EurActiv asked the Commission to comment to what extent the merger is compatible with the sanctions adopted by the EU vis-a-vis Russia in the context of the annexation of Crimea and the Ukraine crisis.

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/europes-east/brussels-blesses-merger-between-daimler-and-russian-military-vehicle-producer

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7. Russian fighters jets to stage exercises over Barents Sea

Feb 26 (Reuters) - Russian fighter jets will take part in exercises on thwarting a potential missile attack in the Barents Sea, RIA news agency said on Thursday.

It said MiG-31 jets were taking part in the initial part of the exercises in the Perm region and the next stage would be launched in the next few days from the Monchegorsk airfield in the Murmansk region of northern Russia.

The Barents Sea is off the coasts of Russia and NATO member state Norway. NATO states have voiced concern over an increase in Russian military exercises and "near misses" with Russian military aircraft since the conflict in east Ukraine began. (Reporting By Katya Golubkova, Writing by Timothy Heriatge, Editing by Elizabeth Piper)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/26/ukraine-crisis-jets-idUSR4N0VL00C20150226?rpc=401

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8. Ukraine poised to pull back arms while US, Russia trade barbs

Ukraine's army awaited orders to pull back weapons from the frontline Thursday as a shaky truce settled, while the United States and Russia traded blame for delays in the peace plan.

Kiev said that its positions around the conflict zone came under fire from pro-Russian rebels a relatively low seven times in 24 hours, and neither side reported any fatalities for the second day running.

Military spokesman Anatoliy Stelmakh said Ukrainian forces were now "waiting for a decision" to start the withdrawal of heavy weapons -- the next key step of the EU-brokered truce deal.

Rebels insist they have already begun withdrawing artillery, rocket launchers and tanks from some areas, and journalists saw a column of howitzer guns being driven along a road near the separatist stronghold of Donetsk Wednesday.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/world/west-sanctions-threat-shows-unwillingness-in-ukraine-truce/article/427020

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9. Putin’s push into Ukraine is rational

A hyper-aggressive Russia, in the view of some Americans, is setting off a new and dangerous Cold War. Loud voices in Washington depict the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, as a richly empowered thug who is using his vast resources to lash out against his neighbors, Europe, the United States and the world. In fact Putin is a dangerously weak thug who is desperately trying to prevent the consummation of a Washington-based plan to surround his country with unfriendly forces.

The immediate reason for American outrage at Russia is its intervention in Ukraine. Washington’s goal is to turn Ukraine and other countries bordering on Russia into political partners. That would bring Western power directly to Russia’s borders. American weaponry already stares into Russia from Latvia and Estonia. If Ukraine can be brought into NATO, as some in Washington openly hope, that would be another step toward the encirclement of Russia.

Rather than allow this to happen, Russia has mobilized its allies in Ukraine to resist. Russia’s enemies, based principally in Washington, consider this a form of aggression. Yet any Russian leader who allowed Ukraine to join an enemy alliance would be betraying his country’s vital security interests.

All countries try to prevent the emergence of enemies on or near their borders. They seek what geo-politicians call “strategic depth.” It means the seizure, overtly or covertly, of control over enough adjacent territory to protect their homeland.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2015/02/25/putin-reaction-ukraine-about-russian-security/uM3Ipc7lWPgWbpiIWBJSxI/story.html

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10. UPDATE 1-Russian assets boosted by oil price rally, Ukraine peace moves

Feb 26 (Reuters) - The rouble and Russian shares opened with firm gains on Thursday, tracking up the rallying oil price and following signs that a ceasefire is taking hold in eastern Ukraine.

At 0800 GMT the rouble was 1.1 percent stronger at 60.70 against the dollar, and 1.2 percent stronger against the euro at 68.90.

Earlier on Thursday the rouble reached 68.65 against the euro, its strongest level in 2015, and a seven-week high of 60.38 against the dollar.

The dollar-denominated RTS index of Russian shares was up 3 percent to 991 points, while the rouble-based MICEX index was up 0.4 percent to 1,752 points.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/26/russia-crisis-rouble-idUSL5N0W01FO20150226?rpc=401

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11. Russia's Gazprom says ready to compromise on gas for east Ukraine

Feb 26 (Reuters) - Russian natural gas producer Gazprom said on Thursday it was willing to compromise with Ukraine over gas supplies to rebel-held regions in its east.

"We are ready at the moment to exclude our gas supplies to Donbass from our discussions (with Ukraine)," Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov told the Rossiya-24 TV channel.

He also said that Ukraine had prepaid for Russian gas until the end of the week. (Reporting by Katya Golubkova and Vladimir Soldatkin, editing by Elizabeth Piper)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/26/russia-crisis-ukraine-gas-idUSR4N0VL00L20150226?rpc=401

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12. . nt

[Adrahil]

13. I'm glad to hear this. The key will be...

Mariupol. IMO, this doesn't end now, but let's hope it does.

[Fred Sanders]

14. But just yesterday it was " the sky is falling".....is America being lied to by media ..cause that never happens.

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15. Ukraine truce pullback of weapons finally begins

KIEV, Ukraine, Feb. 26 (UPI) -- The Ukrainian army said Thursday it was withdrawing heavy weapons from the front lines of its conflict with pro-Russian separatists.

The move to pull back 100-millimeter artillery, monitored by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, was specified in a cease-fire agreement signed Feb. 12, with a Feb. 15 date specified for withdrawal. Pro-Russian rebels said they, too, had begun moving heavy weaponry back from a de facto line of demarcation through eastern Ukraine, a statement not verified by OSCE monitors.

Since the strategic town of Debaltseve fell to rebels on Feb. 15, the truce has slowly taken hold. The Ukrainian army's decision to move its artillery came after 48 hours elapsed without a fatality in the conflict, it said. The nearly year-long fight has taken the lives of nearly 5,800 people, the United Nations has estimated.

Ukraine, NATO and leaders of western countries have repeatedly said Russia is involved in aiding the rebels, an accusation Russia denies. Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk accused Russia of not withdrawing heavy weaponry and referred to Russian President Vladimir Putin as a "threat to the entire Western civilization" in an interview with CNBC.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2015/02/26/Ukraine-truce-pullback-of-weapons-finally-begins/9111424960051/?spt=sec&or=tn