Trump's Numbers Near a Tipping Point

[DonViejo]

Things fell apart for Nixon when he dropped below 30 percent approval in his second term. Trump is getting there in his first year.

ELEANOR CLIFT
12.15.17 5:00 AM ET

Public opinion can take off like a runaway train once it gets going. President Donald Trump, already polling lower than any of his predecessors in his first year, might soon be hearing the hoofbeats of history.

At 32 percent in the most recent Pew and Monmouth polls, he is perilously close to what most historians and political scientists say is a tipping point of 30 percent, below which a president can no longer effectively lead.

President Nixon was at 22 percent when he resigned in August of 1974 and Republican Party affiliation had dropped to 18 percent, recalls Reagan historian Craig Shirley. “Going below 30 percent kept Truman from seeking another term and going below 30 percent eventually drove Nixon out of office,” he says. “In the modern era, beginning with FDR, presidents get into trouble when they fall below 30.”

Nixon won a landslide re-election in 1972 with 61 percent of the vote, but it was all downhill after that. For most of the next year, his polls lingered in the mid to high 30s, a downward trajectory that began even before the White House taping system was revealed in July of 1973, exposing his legal jeopardy.

more
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-numbers-near-a-tipping-point

[wildeyed]

1. But when has he effectively led?

McConnell got a few things done, in spite of Trump. And they are effectively stealing the internet and public lands while undermining the judicial branch to the point that is will not function as a check to their power in the near future. But that is not leadership. That is nefarious backroom politics by smart and very evil people who are taking advantage of Trump's lack of leadership to grab power.... All Trump has done is throw wobblers on Twitter and try to fleece his gullible supporters for as much money as possible by selling crappy Christmas tree ornaments to his email list (I subscribe. It is so demoralizing to see the acting POTUS use the incredible power and standing of the office to sell gimcrack on the interwebs).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Let's not forget there was a recession

Let's not forget there was a recession which provided a backdrop for the Watergate hearings.

[NewJeffCT]

4. While Trump took over

a good, but not great, economy from Obama.

[Orsino]

3. Nixon didn't have MSM lying for him 24/7, or so many billionaires determined to support him.

Trump could survive much lower approval numbers, but whether his ego will let him hang around for it is another matter.

[NewJeffCT]

5. I think because of the downfall of Nixon

it was not long afterwards that Right Wingers started down the path to coming up with alternatives to the mainstream media - initially with conservative "think tanks" and buying up newspapers and putting RW radio hosts on the air, to dumping the Fairness Doctrine and then the start of Fox News.

[DFW]

6. Although Fox "News" didn't start until 1996

Roger Ailes, its guru, was an original member of the 1968 Nixon campaign's "Dirty Tricks Team," a role he continued in one form or another for the rest of his life.

[NewJeffCT]

7. The Heritage Foundation

was started in 1973, and the Cato Institute not long after, in 1977. Jerry Falwell's Moral Majority in 1979. They were the foundation of what came afterwards. Murdoch buys the NY Post in the 70s and they go hard right, Moon and the Washington Times was 1982.

It didn't happen overnight - it's been a long term process of the right building up their infrastructure and expanding their influence

[Willie Pep]

8. Trump might not even make it out of a primary.

I was thinking about this yesterday. Trump's numbers are so bad that some Republicans have to be salivating at the thought of challenging him in 2020. But the kicker is that primaries are dominated by the most fervent people in each party so will hardcore Republicans abandon Trump for a challenger in 2020?