Once Unthinkable, Senate Looks Like a Tossup in 2018

[RandySF]

At this time last year, the Democratic path to Senate control seemed impossible: Hold all of the Democratic seats, flip Arizona and Nevada, then hope for a miracle.

The Democrats got the political version of a miracle on Tuesday. Doug Jones’s victory in Alabama means Democrats have accomplished the most difficult item on their checklist in pursuit of the Senate. A Democratic path is now obvious, and the race for control is basically a tossup, perhaps with a Republican advantage.

It is hard to overstate how surprising this would have seemed a year ago. Democrats needed three states to flip control of the Senate, but they entered the cycle defending 25 seats (two of them independents) to the G.O.P.’s eight. Of those Democratic seats, a staggering 10 of them were in states that chose Donald J. Trump for president, including five that he carried by at least 18 percentage points.

Only one Republican, Dean Heller, represented a state (Nevada) won by Hillary Clinton. Jeff Flake’s seat in Arizona was also plausibly competitive after Mr. Trump’s tepid 3.5-point win in the state, but it was hard to find the third Democratic seat. Perhaps the next best Democratic opportunity was against Ted Cruz in Texas — a long shot at best.


https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/14/upshot/senate-democrats-2018-midterms.html?_r=0

[lunasun]

1. Good news let's keeping moving forward

[marybourg]

2. We have a great candidate for Flake's seat

in Kyrsten Sinema. I'm optimistic!

[DesertFlower]

4. i am too.

[Bradshaw3]

8. Yes we do

I'm fired up and ready to go.

[Eliot Rosewater]

3. I always have to shake my head at how hard it is for

the party which supports the middle class, working people, clean environment and justice has to work so fucking hard to get votes and the party which overtly and openly OPPOSES all of that, doesnt.

[RandySF]

5. There are numerous academic studies on the conservative brain.

[Eliot Rosewater]

9. Greed is at the base of their decision making process.

I sadly know this as I found myself in business with one, a relative no less.

Very corrupt, very untrustworthy.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

17. More like brain stem.

[DesertFlower]

6. it makes me so angry. if this tax bill passes they

will suffer in 2018.

[Yavin4]

18. You're ignoring this

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ donations from the top 1%. Republicans have become expert at serving them, and their primary tactic is to cease upon what I call, "cashless issues", paraphrasing the accounting term "cashless expense". In accounting, you can write off certain expenses which lower your earnings but you didn't actually spend any money. Think depreciation.

In politics, the Republicans love "cashless issues". These are issues where they can take a hard stand on, but don't have to spend any money on them. For example, anti-choice, pro NRA, Christian fundamentalism, anti-LGBTQ, racism, sexism, etc. By taking certain stands on these issues, they can get poor and working class people to vote for economic policies that benefit the top 1% without committing a single penny to anyone.

[Fred Sanders]

7. Lesson #1 from Alabama. Nothing is impossible anymore. And more Moore clones? Bring them!

[RandySF]

10. Alabama was a perfect storm of circumstances

1. The best Southern Democratic candidate/campaign since the early 90's
2. A horrible Republican nominee
3. A bad national environment for Republicans.
4. A Democratic coalition DYING to vote.
5. A surprisingly effective GOTV operation by the DNC progressive/resistance groups.


That said, Jones, Northam and their allies showed candidates showed 2018 candidates and campaign operations how to reach out to people who do not normally show up for mid-term elections.

[Egnever]

19. Agreed

a perfect storm and not really repeatable.

That said I do think the energy is on the Democratic side. We will win seats we previously would not have had a chance at and if this tax bill gets through our chances will be even greater.

[disndat]

23. also the Black Lives Matter vote

Blacks were moved to turned out even in a hopeless deep south State.

[marble falls]

11. We need to take nothing for granted. We need to buckle down and campaign ....

They're defending six seats and we're defending twenty-seven. If we can get the vote out we will pick up some House seats we wouldn't have figured on.

[Jim Lane]

15. Slight correction on the numbers

They're defending eight seats -- NV, AZ, UT, WY, NE, TX, MS, and TN. The retirements of Flake and Corker mean that AZ and TN will be open seats. (There may be open seats in UT and MS but so what.)

On our side, members of the Democratic caucus will be up in HI, WA, CA, MT, ND, NM, MN regular (Klobuchar seat), MN special (Franken seat), WI, MO, MI, IN, OH, PA, WV, VA, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, MA, VT, ME, RI, and FL, so I think the total is 26.

I'm going by the map at http://electoral-vote.com/, which is color-coded to show which party won in 2012 and whether the margin was small, medium, or large. NV and AZ are the only two states where the Republican won by less than 15 percentage points.

[marble falls]

16. Picky, picky, picky. My numbers are close enough.

[Sneederbunk]

12. Looking forward to robust Tenn Senate race.

[uponit7771]

13. +1, seems ground game in VA and AL is repeatable; DNC treats black & Latino like swing voters & goes

... after them from the get (especially black women), compete in EVERY DAMN ZIP CODE .. EVERY DAMN RACE, positive local economic contrasting message regarding tax bill & health care.

[gratuitous]

14. Texas may be a long shot

But it appears that Beto O'Rourke is going to run for the Democrats. Like Doug Jones in Alabama, O'Rourke is a good public servant with a history of service to the people of Texas. Ted Cruz is a horrible person with a lousy record of service to anyone except his bankrollers.

Start getting people registered to vote, spend money canvassing, get O'Rourke's name in every media outlet there is. Educate voters on all the mean little tricks the Republicans are going to try to pull, and how to overcome them. Set up voter assistance hotlines for people to call if they get any static from hostile poll workers. Teach them not to leave without at least voting a provisional ballot. Keep up-to-date information on polling places online in case Republicans play hide-and-seek with polling places. Recruit drivers to take people to the polls.

The harder you work, the luckier you get. Ask Doug Jones.

[Marthe48]

20. If they pass the tax hike, its a sure thing they lose House and Senate

Americans have been betrayed by the people they chose to represent them. Just a damn shame.

[Dopers_Greed]

21. I think Texas is in play

1. Demographics are changing here. Repubs have a slimmer margin of victory each election year.

2. A lot of people hate Ted Cruz, even my conservative family.

3. Beto has been campaigning hard, doing lots of small meet-and-greets in Red areas. His strategy reminds me of Obama in 2008.

4. Disgust over Dump may be enough to put us over the top.

If Dems can get the turnout, we will defeat Cruz.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

22. Unfortunately not after everyone gets a tax cut

[disndat]

25. Florida could trun Democratic

With the sudden influx of hurricane Maria from Puerto Rico.

[Demsrule86]

24. If Collins votes for the tax bill, we could get her seat as well.

She is thinking about running for governor in 18.

[disndat]

26. Collins must have lots of money support

promised to vote for the tax reform.

[Demsrule86]

29. She wants to run for governor.

[smirkymonkey]

27. Take back congress in 2018!

[Irish_Dem]

28. The GOP will be lucky to just lose power, they should be going to prison. nt