How important was the "Independent" vote for Doug Jones?

[kentuck]

It is important that we not misdiagnose the results in last nights election. Personally, I think a lot of people are simply turned off by Donald Trump. I don't think he helped Roy "Woody" Moore at all.

Also, I'm not sure of the impact that the "pedophilia" charges had in the election? The guy was so unsuited and unfit for the office, it's difficult to tell what might have been the primary influence? But did it have any noticeable effect on Republican voters?

As for "Independent" voters, they made up 21% of the total voters, according to the Washington Post. Of that 21%, Doug Jones received +8 in independent votes. How significant is that? How do "Independents" normally vote in Alabama?

We should be careful to not apply the results in Alabama to any other state, in my opinion. It was an earth-shaking victory for Democrats and an earth-shaking defeat for the Republicans. The world of politics is different today than it was yesterday.

[eppur_se_muova]

1. A lot of the backlash was specific to Roy Moore.

He's been around AL politics a long time, and a lot of people were very tired of him and his shenanigans, of which there were plenty, well before his "short eyes" proclivities became more widely known.

As one analyst so correctly summed it up on election night coverage, Moore has his base of die-hards, but beyond that, he not only has no appeal, he is genuinely repulsive to many Alabamans. Enough of them finally showed up at the polls to make sure their opinions got the full weight they deserved.


ETA: IIRC something like 50% of voters told exit pollers the accusations against Moore didn't much matter to them. A similar fraction said their opinion of 45 did not affect their vote.