If Chump's approval ratings remains mired in the low to mid thirties almost any Dem can beat him.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Just saying...

If we win the House he will likely be running while being tried in the Senate.

[get the red out]

1. Russia

He shouldn't have won in 2016.

[ollie10]

2. Approval ratings don't equate to voting....

1) for one, some of those who don't approve think Trump has not done stuff crazy ENOUGH! These folks ain't gonna vote Democratic just because they no longer approve of the way things are going. Push comes to shove, they would vote against the Democrat even if they don't approve of Trump....sound familiar? Trump didn't have the best approval ratings in 2016 either....

2) No, we shouldn't be over-confident. Not everyone can beat Trump. Hillary proved that. Over-confidence hurt her campaign too.

[treestar]

5. Totally agree; let's not drift into that again!

We thought he was a sure loser for 2016. Never take it for granted again! We know it is possible.

I think the vote for AL Senate showed Democrats are waking up. They did not think it possible for a disaster like Donald to occur. Now that we know it can, we can learn from that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. For incumbents approval ratings are highly correlated to the share of the vote they received.

See Obama, Bush, Clinton, Bush Pere, Reagan, Carter, Ford, Nixon...

Trump will try to make his opponent as unpopular as him. I am confident we won't provide him with a foil like Hillary, who while fundamentally decent and smart, was mercilessly and negatively caricatured by Trump.

If Trump is at 35% on approval he will have to convince 20% of the electorate who disapproves of him to vote for him. That's a tall order.

[ollie10]

9. Yes, Hillary was a foil.

He will need a foil again in 2020. He won't be able to win without a foil.

Unfortunately, he is adept at using a foil.

We need to be damned sure that our candidate won't be one who can be easily caricatured by Trump.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. There are some candidates who are very popular here who are susceptible to being caricatured.

I will keep my counsel to myself. I just hope we don't nominate them.


Please check this out re my point about the correlation between a president's approval ratings and the the percentage of votes he received in his re-election campaign:

http://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx


It's uncanny.

[GusBob]

3. There is more gravy to this

Candidates will refuse to campaign with Trump and shun his endorsement. He will be the poison for his party and a big fat target for opponents. This will piss the Dotard off and fracture the party more. Fundraising, donations, and allocation of campaign money will be affected. This will of course make a splash in 2018, but the key point is if Trumps approval ratings remain in the 30's he himself is toast if he makes it to 2020

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Here's approval ratings

Here's approval ratings for every president since Truman:


http://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx



The correlation between approval ratings and share of the vote for those who sought re-election is uncanny.

[Roland99]

4. They may disapprove of his performance so far but you can bet another 10-15% more will still vote fo

[Trailjunkie14]

8. I worry about the running someone else.

They might go ahead and run Mitch McConnell in 2020. McConnell has never lost an election and that is scary.