IT IS OVER for Roy Moore. Jones wins the AL Senate race.

[L. Coyote]

Last edited Wed Dec 13, 2017, 12:07 AM - Edit history (1)

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

Roy Moore leads by 0.4 percentage points over Doug Jones with 85 percent of precincts fully reporting. Jump to estimate of final result ?
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Roy Moore Republican 512,829 49.4%
Doug Jones Democrat 508,671 49.0
Total Write-Ins — 15,922 1.5

85% reporting (1,882 of 2,220 precincts)


Estimated margin, Jones +2.3
Chance of winning, 75% Jones

We think about 180,000 votes remain to be counted. We think Mr. Jones leads in that vote by about 13.0 points.

[msongs]

1. nice stats do they tell the repubs what numbers need jiggling? nt

[bearsfootball516]

2. This is not a responsible thread

We do not know who is going to win yet.

[renegade000]

5. Well, based on the remaining precincts it is...

If you look at a county breakdown... Moore is out of major vote sources. Jones still has plenty. It's currently tied...

[L. Coyote]

6. Speak for yourself. Some of us took grad classes in statistics.

[KelleyKramer]

12. Awwwwww

The numbers are what the numbers are

[bearsfootball516]

13. I'm over the moon right now!!!

JONES HAS IT!!!!

[KelleyKramer]

28. Well of course you are

Everyone can see it

[malaise]

29. Yes he did

[gristy]

3. Yep

The large majority of precincts not yet reporting are in Blue counties. Just mouse over the map on the front page of the NY Times and you can see...

[L. Coyote]

4. Roy Moore leads by 0.0 percentage points over Doug Jones with 85 percent of precincts

Roy Moore leads by 0.0 percentage points over Doug Jones with 85 percent of precincts fully reporting. Jump to estimate of final result ?
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Roy Moore Republican 527,231 49.2%
Doug Jones Democrat 527,098 49.2
Total Write-Ins — 16,760 1.6

85% reporting (1,897 of 2,220 precincts)


Estimated margin, Jones +2.7
Chance of winning 84% Jones

We think about 160,000 votes remain to be counted. We think Mr. Jones leads in that vote by about 12.8 points.

[jimlup]

7. Wish it were true BUT

don't underestimate the ability of the Refucks to steal this election

[helpisontheway]

8. They wil find some votes for Moore. Nt

[RandomAccess]

9. Exactly

I'm not sure I'll believe Jones wins this until he's sworn in. (Okay, slight exaggeration.)

[L. Coyote]

10. Doug Jones leads by 0.9 percentage points -- Chance of winning -- 95% Jones

Doug Jones leads by 0.9 percentage points over Roy Moore with 89 percent of precincts fully reporting. Jump to estimate of final result ?
Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Doug Jones Democrat 572,615 49.6%
Roy Moore Republican 562,678 48.8
Total Write-Ins — 18,331 1.6

89% reporting (1,965 of 2,220 precincts)


Estimated margin, in pct. points
Jones +2.7
Reported marginNo reported leader
D+14D+13D+12D+11D+10D+9D+8D+7D+6D+5D+4D+3D+2D+1R+1R+2R+3R+4R+5R+6R+7R+8R+9R+10R+11R+12R+13R+14Median forecast
Chance of winning
>95%Jones
Reported marginNo reported leader

[L. Coyote]

20. 98% reporting ---- Jones 49.5% Moore 48.8%

Doug Jones Democrat 639,088 49.5%
Roy Moore Republican 629,749 48.8
Total Write-Ins — 22,019 1.7

98% reporting (2,181 of 2,220 precincts)
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

We think about 25,000 votes remain to be counted. We think Mr. Jones leads in that vote by about 22.6 points.

Will there be a recount?

[L. Coyote]

23. 99% reporting (2,195 of 2,220 precincts)

Doug Jones Democrat 643,626 49.5%
Roy Moore Republican 635,076 48.8
Total Write-Ins — 22,258 1.7

We think about 16,000 votes remain to be counted. We think Mr. Jones leads in that vote by about 37.4 points.

Estimated margin, Jones +1.1%

So, if this holds, there will not be a recount.

[L. Coyote]

24. 100% reporting --- Jones wins by almost 1.6% --- write-ins 1.7%

Looks like no automatic recount.

"According to Alabama election law, a recount is automatically triggered if the margin is less than or equal to 0.5 percent. The losing candidate could submit a written waiver of the recount." source

Link to tweet

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

All votes have been counted. Mr. Jones leads in that count by 1.6 points.

Doug Jones Democrat 671,151 49.9%
Roy Moore Republican 650,436 48.4
Total Write-Ins — 22,819 1.7

100% reporting (2,220 of 2,220 precincts)

Note how write-ins only just outnumber the winning margin.

[L. Coyote]

11. Fox News is calling this race for Jones.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[dalton99a]

14. 2 am tomorrow: "The Alabama election was RIGGED! Many are saying there was so much voter fraud"

[smirkymonkey]

15. Oh please let this be true. I need to have my faith restored in humanity!

I won't believe it until I wake up tomorrow and it is confirmed.

[L. Coyote]

16. Doug Jones has won the election, according to A.P.

Doug Jones Democrat 602,515 49.6%
Roy Moore Republican 592,729 48.8
Total Write-Ins — 20,219 1.7

93% reporting (2,057 of 2,220 precincts)

Estimated margin Jones +1.3
Chance of winning >95% Jones

[L. Coyote]

17. BREAKING: Democrat Doug Jones will win the Senate special election in Alabama, CNN projects

Link to tweet

[L. Coyote]

18. Thank the black men, and ESPECIALLY, the black women of Alabama for saving the day.

Link to tweet

[gratuitous]

21. Well, I think we can predict the sort of whine conservatives will be ordering

"Real Americans" got overwhelmed by felons, grifters, and welfare queens.

Bwahahahaha!!

[L. Coyote]

22. What will AlexJones say? The Dems bussed in Mexican voters. We need that wall.

Link to tweet

[L. Coyote]

19. Write-ins outnumber the vote spread by more than 2 : 1.

Doug Jones Democrat 635,425 49.6%
Roy Moore Republican 623,125 48.7
Total Write-Ins — 21,792 1.7

96% reporting (2,136 of 2,220 precincts)

Link to tweet

[L. Coyote]

25. Roy Moore: "God is always in control." Well, Roy, God kicked your delusional pedo ass down the road.

Link to tweet

[L. Coyote]

26. News Flash: Roy Moore hasnt accepted the outcome of the civil war ....

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[L. Coyote]

27. Direction of this country was changed by old-school, responsible, well-sourced journalism.

Link to tweet

[malaise]

30. This was and is agreat thread

When you pronounce that slavery was good for families, African-American families get the message loud and clear. Fuck you racists!