General Discussion

brooklynite

(94,591 posts) Tue Dec 12, 2017, 10:34 PM Dec 2017

Let's all put the NYT model in context...

...the probability model is offering projections based on how the Times thinks upcoming votes should be coming. As they do come in and are higher and lower than expected, the win probability changes. It'll likely be bouncing up and down all night; the question is whether it starts to show a trend.

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Let's all put the NYT model in context... (Original Post) brooklynite Dec 2017 OP

This is their current explanation: JenniferJuniper Dec 2017 #1

The key seems to be depressed turnout in rural areas sweetloukillbot Dec 2017 #2

When Rev Al was on with Nicolle Wallace on Friday he said that his group was working on GOTV efforts Rhiannon12866 Dec 2017 #3

JenniferJuniper

(4,512 posts)

1. This is their current explanation:

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 10:34 PM

Dec 2017

We think about 604,000 votes remain to be counted. We think Mr. Jones leads in that vote by about 12.9 points.

sweetloukillbot

(11,026 posts)

2. The key seems to be depressed turnout in rural areas

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 10:37 PM

Dec 2017

And significantly increased turnout in African-American areas.

Rhiannon12866

(205,467 posts)

3. When Rev Al was on with Nicolle Wallace on Friday he said that his group was working on GOTV efforts

Reply to sweetloukillbot (Reply #2)

Tue Dec 12, 2017, 10:47 PM

Dec 2017

Among African American communities in Alabama. I sure hope they were successful. I've worked on campaigns for my congressman and it's not an easy job. With the advent of caller ID, I noticed that each time even fewer people pick up the phone - and I'm including my mother! And going door-to-door can be hazardous - people get annoyed - and we only included reliable Democratic voters.

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