Update: 1841 PST Good news from NYT

[angrychair]

Right now NYT gives Jones a 74% to win

Update: 65% chance to win.

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?action=click&module=TopStories&pgtype=Homepage

[JenniferJuniper]

1. Just went to 90%

[bearsfootball516]

2. If the NYT ends up being wrong, they are going to face some massive, massive backlash

[aaaaaa5a]

3. You watch CNN and MSNBC and it looks like a Moore victory.

Then you turn to the NY Times and they love Jones.


Confusing.

[JenniferJuniper]

4. Bizarre. Rachel pretty much has Moore winning, then

there is this strange NYT thing.

[angrychair]

7. Its in the numbers

I think the margins are to thin where Moore needed to do better...the key will be turn out in these large counties and if the exit polling was close to that 30% black voter turnout

[JenniferJuniper]

9. NYT current explanation:

We think about 565,000 votes remain to be counted. We think Mr. Jones leads in that vote by about 14.1 points.

[angrychair]

11. 14 pts?

That would be amazing...fingers crossed

[JenniferJuniper]

12. Yes but here is Nate Silver's warning about this

The Upshot’s model shows good news for Jones, but it has also been swinging around a fair bit. A few minutes ago, they had him with a 90 percent chance of winning, but that probability is now back down to 67 percent.

I really admire what the Upshot folks are trying to do, but it’s also worth noting that building a live-updating model based on partial returns is a really hard problem. Among other things, its hard to calibrate your estimates of uncertainty based on empirical data, because (to put this in a nontechnical way) every state and every election is different. So I’d keep a watchful eye on the Upshot’s dials to get an overall sense of how things are trending, but I wouldn’t take the probabilities too literally, at least until later in the night.

[angrychair]

13. Updated1848 pst

We think about 477,000 votes remain to be counted. We think Mr. Jones leads in that vote by about 15.9 points.

I hope this is true.

[Akoto]

5. Very large disparity between the NYT projections and TV predictions.

NYT is predicting an overwhelming victory for Jones, whereas MSNBC (and CNN, I believe I read) are reporting Moore as being ahead by several points. Of course, the NYT may be guessing by including votes yet to be reported and how they think they'll swing.

[yardwork]

8. NYT is not predicting an overwhelming victory.

They're showing a very tight race. At this time they feel strongly that Jones will win, but by a slim margin.

[angrychair]

10. I think its going to be played out in the margins

I think the margins are to thin where Moore needed to do better...the key will be turn out in these large counties and if the exit polling was close to that 30% black voter turnout

[cynatnite]

6. 71% now. This will be a roller coaster and very tight, IMO.

I think the NYt is being premature in their predictions.