Take it with a grain of salt. NYT election meter gives Jones 74% chance of winning at 6:22 PM PST

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

[Proud liberal 80]

1. Wonder what they see

Besides the live vote

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. The most important thing-where the votes are coming from.

I'm still taking it with a grain of salt though.

[marylandblue]

5. They estimate the remaining vote based on demographics

For example, only 3% of Montgomery has come in. It will go overwhelmingly for Jones.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Percentages compared to past elections + expectations needed for a win...

Their model is reading that Moore is under-performing not only past elections but the numbers he needs to be at to win this thing.

Conversely, though, we don't have enough data from Jones precincts to suggest whether he's out-performing where he needs to be to win. Right now, I think the NYT is assuming he is, and will, and therefore giving him a sizable margin (4.1% currently). The more raw vote totals come in, though, the more likely that'll change. IF it turns out Jones is not performing at the level he needs to to offset Moore, the needle will flip pretty quickly.

[bearsfootball516]

8. Rural, red county votes are starting to fully fill in

And Moore isn't running up huge totals. Meanwhile, Jones is running up big totals in urban areas, and there's still a ton of vote out there.

It's still early, but it's starting to look like a historic night.....

[struggle4progress]

9. I'd guess they've got some experience with the urban-rural split

[honest.abe]

2. Yes.. but i will take it.

There is reasonable logic for this based on large outstanding votes in blue counties.

[MissB]

4. That would be a welcome ending.

[ClarendonDem]

6. Decreased to 72% in the 5 seconds I was on the website

But rather be Jones than Moore at this point.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. 85% Jones now.

[ClarendonDem]

16. I NEVER thought Jones had a chance

But would love to be wrong.

[krawhitham]

10. 86% at 9:28

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. 90% at 9:29

[sweetloukillbot]

12. 90% at 9:29

[sl8]

13. Huh? I'm seeing the NYT prediction as 52.5% Jones, at 9:28 Eastern. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Those are the raw votes.

[sl8]

18. No, they showed Jones being behind in tallied votes, this was the predicted outcome. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. The meter factors in where the votes are coming from.

[sl8]

23. I see the discrepancy.

I think some posters are reporting predicted per cent chance of victory.

I was looking at the predicted victor's percentage of the vote total.

[Dem2]

17. I feel foolish even considering this could be possible

On the other hand, it's better than a sharp stick in the eye.

[ClarendonDem]

19. Still seeing 72%

Chance for Jones

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. It's dynamic. That was minutes ago.

[ClarendonDem]

22. Now 65%

Just not going to happen for Jones. Will be close, but maybe a 1.5% loss.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. 72% Jones /6:49

[ClarendonDem]

25. Hope that is correct

But Moore is still ahead. Reminds me of 2016 when HRC was losing in Florida and Pennsylvania and I kept expecting her to catch up but she never did.

[dflprincess]

26. Did the Times figure out how to include voter suppression in its calculations? nt