OMG! Black voters are 30% of respondents in AL exit polls !!

[eppur_se_muova]

Last edited Tue Dec 12, 2017, 09:02 PM - Edit history (1)

Live on MTP. Joan Walsh confirmed this is larger turnout than for Obama, which I had been checking on earlier. Conjure on that for a while, if you will.

Blacks are 28% of population. Chagrined white voters -- who lean more R -- are staying away, I'll bet.


UPDATE: Just confirmed by Steve Kornacki on The Last Word -- don't know if he's citing exactly the same data, though.

[marybourg]

1. Are they 30% of the voters?

Just being 30% of respondents could mean they're more willing to *respond*.

[eppur_se_muova]

3. Not sure. They're running the poll results below the main screen, but my eyesight is poor.

They haven't posted all the results at https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2017-elections/live-blog-roy-moore-doug-jones-face-alabama-senate-race-n828806 yet.

[marybourg]

8. Did you notice:

"Republican Voters", "Democrat Voters".

[eppur_se_muova]

16. Oh, that took me a second -- not "Democratic". nt

[marylandblue]

6. They are 23% of registered voters

So if the 30% holds, it's a very good sign.

[marybourg]

10. Or it may just mean that they're the one proud enough to be

willing "responders", ie., not slinking away when the poll taker comes near.

[tomp]

45. please don't denigrate exit polls...

..by purporting imaginary statistical flaws.

exit polls are the worldwide standard to evaluate the fairness of elections, even in countries where you could be killed for voting the wrong way. If exit polls vary from the final tabulation, something is amiss.

And this is why I say Hillary won.

[Thor_MN]

9. Good point, anyone who voted for Moore should be ashamed and slinking away from the polls

avoiding eye contact while slithering home.

[NastyRiffraff]

2. Sounds hopeful!

The Black vote is going to be key in this race, along with women. Even sane, non-brainwashed Republican white women who can see Moore for what he is.

[alarimer]

4. At this point, it's who counts the votes that matters.

With rumors of voter suppression, I think the fix is in, regardless of actual turnout.

[Alea]

24. No need to rig this election

Normally a Dem would have no chance to win this election. With the allegations against mooreon, only some repugs will stay home and even fewer if any will vote for Jones. It really depends on how many Dems get off their arses and go vote.

I don't believe the exit polls either. There was none where I voted and if they only do them in the large cities then they will skew toward Democrats because there are more Dems and POC in the big cities.

If Moore wins it'll be because he was going to win anyway and the allegations just didn't keep the repugs home. Hopefully we got a big Dem turnout because that's what it's going to take in this solid red state.

I did my part. I voted, and encouraged a few lazy younger people I'm in school with to go vote that didn't think it was important.

Fingers crossed.

[Honeycombe8]

29. Anything can happen. But Repubs usu. show up to vote against Dems (meaning they vote for the repub)

So I'm hopeful, but prepared for anything from a Moore landslide to a tie to a Jones win. I'd be floored if it were a Jones landslide, however. That would mean hell has frozen over.

[SkyDaddy7]

49. OH How nice it would be...

To go ice skating in HELL!!

[Honeycombe8]

61. Yeah....

That would be something.

[SkyDaddy7]

68. WOO-HOO!!!

Might not technically be what would normally be considered a landslide just looking at the returns but we all know this was an Earth-shaking win!

[tomp]

46. exit polls, properly conducted are accurate predictors of elections...

...and used around the world to determine fairness of elections.

Do you have actual evidence that American pollsters are doing it wrong, or are you just repeating what the media says?

[Alea]

50. What?

Do you have actual evidence that I said they are doing it wrong, or are you just commenting of stuff I didn't say?

Just saying they don't do exit polling everywhere, and not everyone is going to admit voting for moore.


"or are you just repeating what the media says?" smug question is a smug question.

Thanks for playing

[tomp]

63. you said: "I don't believe exit polls. There were none where I voted."

That strongly implies, if not outright states, that you think they are doing it wrong. And when you make statements like that you denigrate exit polls, even if inadvertently. you do it again here by saying "not everyone will admit to voting for moore." Again denigrating exit polls. You apparently don't even realize what the meaning of your words are.

you're the smug one. and you should be more careful with your words.

[Alea]

65. Thanks for playing

[gristy]

67. Thank you for your thoughtful defense of exit polls

[fescuerescue]

5. What's the baseline?

Is my first question when I see raw numbers.

If typically the exit polls show 25%, this is a great sign. If they typically show 35%, a very bad sign.

Without the baseline, impossible to draw an inference.

[eppur_se_muova]

12. I believe it was 29% for Obama, which was anomalously high ...

Black voters are expected to be a key demographic in Tuesday's Senate election - a higher black turnout, conventional wisdom goes, the better for Democrat Jones.

"For a special election like this, my thought is it's going to be 23-24 (percent) will be the black composition of those who show up," Couvillon said. "Two or 3 percent matters in a close race like this because blacks vote almost unanimously Democrat."

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/12/roy_moore_vs_doug_jones_polls.html

Off-year special elections can be particularly difficult for Democrats to turn out minority and young voters. But turning out black voters is key for Jones. African-Americans make up about 27 percent of Alabamians (and about 23 percent of registered voters).

In 2008, when Barack Obama was on the ballot, black voters voted in outsize numbers, making up 29 percent of voters and leading Obama to receive the most votes for any Democratic candidate in Alabama's history (more than 813,000).

http://apr.org/post/what-watch-and-whats-stake-alabama-senate-race#stream/0

[Honeycombe8]

31. Voter ID laws matter, too. I'd guess that AL instituted some strict voter ID laws. nt

[Laura PourMeADrink]

41. Per exit..non white 25 percent of exit

[tomp]

47. No statistician here but....

....exit polls have proved accurate in countries that have never had a previous democratic election (under fair conditions). Why do you assert we need an exit poll baseline when they don't elsewhere?

[Egnever]

7. They represent 30% of the population

According to the last census so this is not really indicative of much.

Remember last time sessions got 90% plus of the vote . By definition it would have to include a whole lot of black people.

Pretending the black vote is automatically Democratic is an easy way to ignore issues that are important to black people.

We need to win their votes as well. If the argument is sexual purity I think we lose.

[eppur_se_muova]

13. Black voters in AL vote 95% Dem. Blacks are 28% of AL population, but are underrepresented ...

... in actual voter turnout.

[Egnever]

15. Fair enough 28%

I hope you are right and this is indicative of a win. I don't however think these numbers tell us much.

[pnwmom]

17. But a poster above says they're only 23% of registered voters. That is the key number here. n/t

[Egnever]

20. Again I hope you are right.

[Hortensis]

14. Whatever the #s are, this sounds encouraging.

[Bob Loblaw]

18. From what I heard yesterday

seems Moore might be counting on the "Jew" vote to put him over the top.

[OldHippieChick]

23. I think that's only attorneys who happen to be Jews

and who happen to work for Moore, hence - 1

[FakeNoose]

35. Maybe even the young female Jews?

Sorry, I couldn't resist. I'm getting silly now and it's time for my glass of wine.

[keithbvadu2]

37. Only one glass - moderation you know

[FakeNoose]

39. Perfect, I see we've met before!

[Gothmog]

21. This is great news

[DemocraticSocialist8]

22. But will their votes be counted? That's the million dollar question

[bucolic_frolic]

25. Methodology

is it a random sampling of voters when they do exit polling? who do they include, can voters refuse to participate? Do they count those in line, all day, or a few times a day?

[marylandblue]

33. They.select precincts thought to be representative

Then grab wbo they can walking by and poll them. Not always accurate if they pick the wrong precincts or people don't want to stop.

[Igel]

48. No.

They try to pick representative districts. It's supposedly random within districts. On the other hand, there have been some real exit poll bloopers where, for one reason or another, "every 5th voter" or whatever turns out to be entirely non-random. Pollsters stationed near the car parking lot exit, pollsters that put off one demographic by their appearance, pollsters who ignored instructions.

They have a means to pigeon-hole those voters who say 'no'.

This provides raw data. It can be wrong in all sorts of ways.

And they have a nice algorithm, a model, telling about voter turnout by all sorts of breakdowns. If the raw data don't match the algorithm, they adjust the raw data.

If the algorithm is wrong, they have to adjust the algorithm after the fact based on information about precincts, etc.

Raw data are dangerous.

Initially adjusted data often reflect pollsters' views and past turnout more than current reality.

The final adjusted data often doesn't meet viewers' expectations.

[ffr]

26. It's a winning formula. Dems vote. Dems win.

EOM

[Alice11111]

34. Maybe not. Dems vote. Dems announce polls. Repubs vote.

Better to keep mouth shut until the polls close.

I think this is the same thinking when Fox said Jones is 10 points ahead...get Repubs to turn out.

[doc03]

27. We win either way nt

[Amimnoch]

40. My thoughts exactly.

The actual Senate dynamic will change VERY little in the next 11 months regardless of the results.

The fact that this special election in this particular state is even a battleground race is a HUGE indicator for us.

The real prize:


Regardless of how this one turns out, what was looking like a very dismal mid-term year just 1 year ago is now looking like we will at the very least hold our ground, and even puts the Senate into a possible play for us.

[Alice11111]

28. Well, I wish they would not release this until the polls close.

It will send the Repubs running to vote. I've been an election judge when I have seen this happen. We had it bagged, and the Repubs show up the last 45 minutes.

[cilla4progress]

30. Atheist prayers

Going up! 👍😁

[customerserviceguy]

32. This is indeed something

I would imagine that African-American voters are accustomed to being marginalized in Alabama elections, this is clearly a time when that might well not happen, and they are responding appropriately.

[FakeNoose]

36. If that's true (and I hope it is)

... then Obama was a big help.

[customerserviceguy]

44. Sen Booker and Gov Deval also deserve some thanks

I would also extend that to Joe Biden, who was hands-on with this election.

[progree]

38. Preliminary EXIT POLLS (FULL ARTICLE) - some things to like, some things not to like.

Alabama voters split on allegations against Moore, exit polls indicate
https://www.yahoo.com/gma/alabama-voters-split-allegations-against-moore-exit-poll-230805328--abc-news-topstories.html

Tons and tons of numbers, sigh.
On the race issue it just says this:

Race is another important factor. About two-thirds of voters were white while nearly three in 10 were black in 2012 and 2008. This year, preliminary results are similar, despite Alabama’s new, more-restrictive voter ID law.

That's not at all hopeful to me. Same white-black proportion, and I'm guessing blacks will vote the same 95% or whatever it was for the Dems as before.

Consider that the Repubs won by a huge margin in Alabama in 2008 and 2012.

So unless whites vote way different than before...

[Laura PourMeADrink]

42. Cnn exit had non white at 25 percent of this polled

[eppur_se_muova]

43. I can't find the figure Joan Walsh was quoting -- it was verbal only.

Now I'm starting to get a little worried.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

59. Think they called it early exit. 30 percent Not sure.

What r u thinking? I am think Moore by 1

[eppur_se_muova]

60. I think Jones may actually win it in a squeaker.

In most states, rural precincts are last to report, and they tilt R. But here, the "Black Belt" precincts may be part of the late vote.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

62. F$ckin Moore looks like he knows he won. Unbelievable

That college educated voted for him..bright side..keeps sexual harrassment in news which is Trump's worse nightmare.

[honest.abe]

51. That is encouraging.

Hope that takes Doug over the finish line!

[RandySF]

52. They are 30% of exit poll respondents.

[Maaattcast]

53. these are just preliminary

We should all take a deep breath, exit poll numbers are continually adjusted throughout the night. The initial exit polls don't contain voters from the final hours and the exit pollster makes other adjustments as more data becomes available. Its fairly rare for the first exit poll numbers to be all that accurate, its often significantly different then what the final exit poll numbers look like. Just keep this in mind.

[iluvtennis]

54. CNN Exit Polls are showing the 30% as well

Link to tweet

[C Moon]

55. This all sounds so familiar. I'll celebrate after the votes are all counted...

or not counted—as I suspect that is what is going to happen. There are already reports of voter suppression against black voters.
Sigh. It is broke, but we just won't fix it.

[ecstatic]

56. Moore yearns for the days of slavery

I'm actually surprised and a little disappointed that the turnout isn't higher. All it would take is 49 more like Roy Moore to take things back.

[iluvtennis]

57. SteveKornacki: Black turnout better than Dems hoped. But Jones not getting as many White crossovers

Link to tweet

[Wiseman32218]

58. I hope this isn't the Trump voter syndrome where the are afraid to admit they voted for Moore.

[Ace Rothstein]

64. Black voters are putting Jones on their backs and carrying him across the finish line.

[progree]

66. AP CALLS IT FOR JONES

Jones wins in stunning Alabama upset
https://www.yahoo.com/news/turbulent-senate-race-now-hands-alabama-voters-084842964--election.html


Doug Jones has won the election, according to A.P.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10141937829

ABC Live coverage (ABC hasn't called it yet, as of 1043 PM ET)
https://www.yahoo.com/news/turbulent-senate-race-now-hands-alabama-voters-084842964--election.html