A counter to the poster who thinks the exit polls are "grim'

[louis c]

The exit polls out of Alabama so far are very encouraging. The key number (even to Chuck Todd) is the Trump approval number. Trump won Alabama by 28 points in 2016.

The exit poll number is Trump Approval 48% and Disapproval 48%. 4% neutral.

There is no way that anyone who disapproves of Trump is not voting for Jones. There may be a small percentage of Trump approves who may write in. And I think the 4% of the no opinions or neutral will break 3% to 1% for Jones.

Party ID 43% Rep. and 37% Dem and 20% Indy. That's another positive sign.

This looks like a 2% Jones win to me, but certainly not "grim" exits.

[Gothmog]

1. I was in Florida for the 2004 presidential race

I was with the Kerry Edwards voter protection team and we heard that exit polls heavily favored Kerry in Ohio. That turned out to be wrong. I take exit polls with a grain of salt

[a kennedy]

8. Damn right.......not reliable at all.....

[yardwork]

11. Well, maybe the exit polls in Ohio in 2004 were accurate and....

[RandomAccess]

20. You need to start researching what happened

in Ohio and elsewhere. Our elections are being stolen, and Ohio is a key locus of corruption. Look at the archives on BradBlog.com and some of Palast's contemporary work.

[louis c]

21. this is a suppression tactic

Once you can convince everyone that their votes don't count and everything is rigged, you do the other side's work for them. Our side doesn't vote.

Please stop doing the Repukes work for them.

[RandomAccess]

22. Oh bullshit

YOU stop enabling and covering for RepubliCONs.

They don't steal ALL the votes, and they don't steal the ones where voters have overwhelmed them and they haven't figured that out early enough to make it happen. (See Obama wins.)

There's just too much evidence out there that this is happening. EDUCATE yourself and stop sticking your head in the sand. An educated, ACTIVIST electorate is the only solution, not refusing to know the truth.

[customerserviceguy]

23. Well stated

Yes, the GOP does it's share of dirty tricks, maybe more than it's share. But a lot of the elections we've lost were just because, hey, we lost them. Hillary Clinton "should" have beaten Trump by at least 20 points nationwide, but she didn't. We need to find out, and then defeat, the attitude that blowing up the system is better than fixing the system.

[RandomAccess]

24. Hillary Clinton is a perfect example

Here's something quite remarkable:

Here is how they stole the election, well this and KGB operatives V Crosscheck in action:
Trump victory margin in Michigan: 13,107
Michigan Crosscheck purge list: 449,922

Trump victory margin in Arizona: 85,257
Arizona Crosscheck purge list: 270,824

Trump victory margin in North Carolina: 177,008
North Carolina Crosscheck purge list: 589,393

http://www.gregpalast.com/election-stolen-heres/

But wait! There's more!

PALMER: Rigged election: Donald Trump won every surprise swing state by the same 1% margin
http://www.palmerreport.com/opinion/rigged-election-donald-trump-won-every-surprise-swing-state-by-the-same-1-margin/118/

The most commonly posited explanation of Donald Trump’s shocking election victory was that every professional pollster in the nation – despite each working independently and using differing methodologies – somehow managed to overlook the same pockets of Trump voters in these states. If such pockets did exist, they would have existed in varying sizes in each of the four states, thus resulting in different sized wins in each.

Ask any statistician and they’ll tell you that a reasonable distribution of the results would have been Trump winning one of the states by one percent, won one of them by perhaps three percent, won one of them by two percent, lost one of them by one percent, or something along those lines. But instead the voting tallies looked startlingly different from any natural distribution. In fact they looked startlingly the same.

According to the New York Times, the voting results broke down like this: Trump won Florida by just over one percent of the vote. He also won Pennsylvania by just over one percent. He won Michigan by just under one percent. And he won Wisconsin by precisely one percent. That’s not how numbers tend to work in the real world.

On its own, this kind of suspiciously consistent numerical dispersion across the four states that decided the election would be something that could be written off as a mere fluke. But when you put it within the context of the numerous other ways in which the voting tallies make no mathematical sense, it points to the numbers having been rigged or altered.

And then there are these factors, so well described by pnwmom:

pnwmom: Hillary didn't lose because she was less POPULAR. She lost because of James Comey's letters and because of some even more important factors -- more important because they're not going away. They will be used against us in every election going forward, unless we can stop them.

The big problems are voter suppression, Russian meddling, and targeted voter propaganda through Twitter, Google, Facebook, and other forms of social media. There is no question that the Trump campaign, through Cambridge Analytica, did this -- and that the Russians did this. The only question is how much they conspired together in the propaganda campaign.

We need to figure out how to defend the democratic process from fake news and micro-targeted AI propaganda -- or lose our democracy. https://www.democraticunderground.com/10029576691

I didn't care for Hillary. I was a Bernie girl, and would NOT have voted for Clinton --- until I saw the Republican Convention, at which point I said: O.M.G. He CANNOT be allowed to win.

But Clinton did NOT lose. It was stolen from her, just as the 2000 election was stolen, and the 2004 election, and a LOT of other elections over the years.

[louis c]

25. Guess who just won. I'll accept your apology. Jones Jones Jones.

[RandomAccess]

26. Apology for what?

My comments didn't predict Jones would lose. Elsewhere I worried that that the vote suppression and other tactics would cause him to lose, but -- we didn't quarrel about the outcome.

[louis c]

27. For saying every election is a fix.

reread your post.

[RandomAccess]

28. Yeah, but I didn't. YOU reread my post.

And while you're at it, read this one:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10029970137#post24

My basic position --- from my researching and following this issue for 17 years now -- is that the Republicans will do what they can to steal and rig elections. ALL elections? No, probably not -- only the ones that matter to them. The most dangerous in our current environment (aside from the Russians) are unverifiable electronic voting. But there are all kinds of vote suppression tactics, outright disenfranchisement and other tricks.

Dems do okay when the turnout swamps them -- e.g., today in AL -- and we did AMAZINGLY well when the state went back to PAPER BALLOTS -- VA earlier this year. Or when the Republicans just don't care.

[louis c]

29. You're right, you didn't say fix, you said stolen

Stop depressing our vote and try to win election.

We don't need conspiracy theorists at DU. It's hard enough getting people out to vote without giving them an excuse rapped in bullshit.

[RandomAccess]

30. OFFS -- educate yourself before you call me a conspiracy theorist.

And there are just as many if not far MORE people who, knowing the difficulties presented by the machines and vote suppression, make it their business to not only VOTE but help get out the vote.

Who do you think you are, calling me a conspiracy theorist?

[louis c]

31. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and looks like a duck...well, you know the rest (NT)

[Turbineguy]

2. Exit polling

does not account for republican election fraud.

[mcar]

3. CNN is not reporting them thus

[louis c]

4. MSNBC

[grantcart]

5. They all use the same service

[louis c]

7. They don't all emphasize the numbers the same

[grantcart]

6. What worries me is that there is probably a significant number of people who

held their nose and voted for both candidates who don't want to talk about it with exit pollsters.

there could be 4-5% of Moore supporters who don't want to talk about their vote.

But I agree with you there is nothing "grim" about the exit polls.

[louis c]

10. The exits could be wrong. But if they're correct, they are encouraging

[grantcart]

12. In this case where there are very vew even showing Moore signs I am guessing that there

are a lot of Moore voters that don't want to talk about it.

Probably some Republicans who voted for Jones that don't want to vote for it.

But because it isn't "grim" and I dislike the other post that doesn't even give an example of grim I will continue to find reasons to kick this thread lol

[louis c]

14. 48% of people didn't mind saying they don't like Trump

Moore is irrelevant to the conversation. Only 43% called themselves Republican and 37% called themselves Democrats. 20% called themselves Independents. Those are very good numbers. No need to lie about those issues.

[grantcart]

15. That's not the issue

The issue are those who refused to talk with the exit pollster because they were uncomfortable with their vote.

Its called Social Embarrassment Disorder and is a topic of peer review analysis in Poli Sci.

It's most famous occurrence was the so called "Bradley Effect". In the event where people are voting in a way that might be an embarrassment to their neighbors they will try to conceal their vote when they talk with pollsters.

Here is an example:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF00140833?LI=true

Given that Moore voters are not displaying signs its an indicator that they are more likely to not want to talk to pollsters.

[louis c]

16. or it's a sign the candidate is a scum bag and they know it

I am aware of the Bradly Affect. I think that people of Alabama would be more embarrassed to call themselves a Democrat than say they voted for Moore.

In Virginia the Democrat over performed by 9 or 10 points. the prediction was a narrow Republican win and the Dem won by 9. It's happened all over the country this year, Dems over performing. what type of affect is that?

But, my post is not about the accuracy of the exit polls. I didn't conduct them. I am only interpreting them as if they are accurate. If they are accurate, they are encouraging. That's my point.

Let's remember that in 2016 the national polls were only off by one point. They had Clinton by 3 and she won by 2

[grantcart]

18. Agreed, given the scum bag effect I wouldn't be surprised to see some degree of variance

Wouldn't it be great if a future Ph'd candidate wrote a thesis on it and called it the "Scum Bag Effect".

[louis c]

19. Report of a 30% African-American Turnout

African American turnout for Obama was 28%. The Dems were expecting 25% Black turnout, tried for 28% and the reports are 30%.

Latest exit approval disapproval of Roy Moore 42% approve, 55% disapprove. Jones 49%-49%. If these polls are accurate, are you not encouraged?

Do you believe the accusations against Roy Moore? Yes 49%, No 42%.

[.99center]

9. Trump has an approval rating of 48%

In ALABAMA??

[DavidDvorkin]

13. I have no doubt that there are people who disapprove of Trump but will vote for Moore.

[louis c]

17. No way. Not a chance. Sorry to disagree.

[Awsi Dooger]

32. I thought the 8 PM exit descriptions equated to a narrow defeat for Jones

Maybe 2-3 points. I am thrilled to be wrong. Normally the exit polls overstate the Democrat so when I see parity among early exit polls I'm thinking it's going to shift against us, and I don't want to watch it happen. This time I left to go to Home Depot and when I returned suddenly Jones was projected to win.

Absolutely awesome. Mostly I was thinking about how it likely protects the Affordable Care Act for another year.

Young voters are our resource. We need to be pushing registration drives everywhere. They see right through Trump and all the fearful bigoted crap.