Roy Moore vs. Doug Jones: Polls 'all over the place' in Alabama Senate race (al.com)

[eppur_se_muova]

Updated 10:06 AM; Posted 10:06 AM {CST}



By Paul Gattis

[e-mail]

Allow Michael McDonald to say what everyone has been thinking about the waves of polls on the Alabama Senate race.

"When I look at the polling in Alabama, it's just all over the place," said McDonald, an associate professor at the University of Florida who studies American elections.

And so why is that?

Why is it that we have arrived at election day with absolutely no reason to be surprised at the outcome Tuesday night between Democrat Doug Jones and Republican Roy Moore?

Yes, the allegations of sexual misconduct against Moore have thrown the race into chaos - an almost certain Republican victory in perhaps the nation's most Republican state was maybe all but conceded.

But in the 33 days since those allegations - repeatedly denied by Moore - were first reported by The Washington Post, polling on the race has veered to whatever extreme you could imagine.
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more: http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/12/roy_moore_vs_doug_jones_polls.html




Pretty much what commentators on All In and TRMS have been saying.

[customerserviceguy]

1. The only one that I've seen that showed Jones leading substantially

was the Fox News poll, and I think it was manufactured to get out the vote for Moore. By encouraging fundies to swallow their misgivings about the allegations, especially with the 14 year old, the idea is to prevent them from saying to themselves, "Well, Roy Moore can win, but he's not going to do it with MY vote."

I think that's exactly what happened last year when it came to Democratic voters who were upset because of the perception of Hillary Clinton after the smear campaign that was the 2016 general election. I think Fox learned something from that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Why would FOX do that ?

Folks will point to their polls as being crappy and have a factual basis for doing so. If Moore wins they will be off by at least ten points. Also, the polling companies they use will lose clients because of their lack of credibility.

[customerserviceguy]

5. When did credibility

matter to Fox News?

And the people who Fox caters to will be glad that Fox was "wrong", without a thought about what the polling apparatus did or didn't do right.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. FOX commissioned the poll

The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and
Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers
December 7-10, 2017 among a random sample of 1,408 Alabama registered voters (RV).

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12/11/fox-news-poll-enthused-democrats-give-jones-lead-over-moore-in-alabama.html

Why would Anderson Robbins Research:

https://andersonrobbins.com/


purposely make themselves look feckless and incompetent ?

[customerserviceguy]

8. I've never heard of them

prior to your mention of them in your response. Maybe they're "for hire" to bring about the "right" results. Just my speculation.

If this was a truly up-and-up poll that favored Jones, why would Fox News even release the results? If they paid for it, they have the right to use it or not, as they see fit.

Sorry, but until the vote is counted, I smell a rat.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Their clients

A Nun’s Life Ministry

Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts

Boathouse Group

Brother

Cambridge Health Alliance

Cargill

Carmen’s Union

Children’s Hospital

Citizen’s Housing and Planning Association

Cleveland Clinic

Conrad N. Hilton Foundation

Dell

Dewey Square Group

DLA Piper LLP

Ecolab

Eli Lilly

Fidelity Bank

Five Corner Strategies

Fox News Network LLC

Genzyme

Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce

Harrington Hospital

Harvard University

Heartwood Academy

Inkhouse

Iron Mountain

Jelmar

Linkables

Lincoln Financial

Marriott International

Mass Food Association

Massachusetts Association of Health Plans

Massachusetts Medical Society

Massachusetts Nurses Association

Maura Healey Campaign

McGladrey

Michigan Nurses Association

Mohegan Sun

NeighborWorks America

Network Health

Ogilvy Public Relations

Parallon

PJA Advertising & Marketing

Racepoint Global

Right to Repair Committee

Royal Caribbean

Screening for Mental Health

Solomon McCown

Stand for Children

[customerserviceguy]

10. An impressive client list, to be sure

but, I wonder how many of us have heard of them. Also, the company paying the bills can probably call the tune as to how the polling firm is to conduct its activities. They may well restrict them to cell phones and not landlines. They might even be able to specify that the polling firm is to cover "the sticks" by only calling within large towns within rural counties.

There are all kinds of ways to cook a poll, and my contention is, if this was a truly honest poll, would Fox News have released it? Or would they have been happy that it served the purpose of spurring on-the-fence white fundie voting?

We'll know the outcome in a few hours.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. There is a difference between the news department of FOX and their on air media personalities.

Nobody would say Shepard Smith doesn't play it straight,

[customerserviceguy]

13. Perhaps

but I find the whole enterprise of Fox News to be lacking the journalistic standards of other news outlets. I have no idea how far that pervades into their organization, or the firms they hire.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. I detest FOX NEWS. I just don't find the reason they would release a shit poll

I detest FOX NEWS. I just don't find the notion they would deliberately release a shit poll that reflects poorly on their credibility compelling. They want to be right like everybody else.

[customerserviceguy]

15. What counts to Fox News is the result

It doesn't matter what chicanery they practice to get there. I feel they would either manufacture a poll, or use a tampered poll to get on-the-fence white fundies to bite the bullet and vote for Moore, if they feel it would motivate them to do so.

You seem to have a bit more faith in their integrity than I do.

[FreeState]

3. Here are a few more

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_AL_121117/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/alabama-race-is-neck-and-neck-with-voters-divided-over-roy-moore-allegations-poll-finds/2017/12/01/32e659ec-d6bd-11e7-b62d-d9345ced896d_story.html?utm_term=.070da54b630c

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/15/roy-moore-doug-jones-poll-244937

[eppur_se_muova]

4. From the article:

And then, the day before the election, a fitting end to the polling unpredictability: Five polls were released - two with Moore leading, two with Jones leading and the tiebreaking poll was, appropriately enough, a tie.

[customerserviceguy]

6. I didn't see those, thanks! n/t

[0rganism]

12. chaos favors the GOP

they thrive on entropy