DAMN! Pawlenty practically announced he's running for Franken's seat on CNN!

[MoonRiver]

Thanks, NOT, Gillibrand!

[Fullduplexxx]

1. So T-paw is back... gillibrand's blowback

[Pachamama]

2. Still hoping that Al Franken decides to change his mind & can tell Pawlenty he has to wait till 2020

Thanks Goody Gilly....

[brooklynite]

3. And you're worried because...why?

Tim Pawlenty did a worse job than Michelle Bachmann in the 2012 Presidential Primary.

[Mister Ed]

4. He was also elected Governor twice by Minnesota's voters.

Are you sure those same voters would not send him to the Senate?

[liberalhistorian]

27. I'm in MN for graduate school right now,

and from what I'm hearing Pawlenty is VERY unpopular, even among many republicans. He may have been elected twice as governor, but keep in mind that the last time was over a decade ago and it's widely believed that he royally fucked up the state's economy and did other sucky stuff. He's also widely considered very arrogant and egotistical, even for a politician and especially even for a republican. Last year, he actually threw a fit because the informational plaque that accompanied his portrait in the capitol was not "accurate enough" in listing his "many substantial accomplishments" in the state and he accused the state's historical society of "liberal bias". Keep in mind, he still thinks he did great economically, while the wide consensus is that he truly sucked in that regard.

Now, some of this is anecdotal and I'm sure he has his fans here, but I don't think he'd do too well in a primary or, if he did make it past the primary, in the general election. I would certainly hope not.

[Hortensis]

46. LiberalHxn, you say "what you hear" and "widely believed."

These days, in which massive corruption of popular thinking has become normal, shouldn't those very words make you question everything everyone "believes"?

Seriously. Really, really seriously. I don't know how Pawlenty would do, but I do absolutely know that all Democratic candidates who have the best chance of winning are targeted for image assassination. And, according to you, "everyone's" saying he'd lose. Umhmmm...

Also, note that primary Democratic candidates the right believes would be easy to beat are being puffed up as fine, viable choices in order to steer Democratic voters to them.

Mass media and popular opinion these days should be noted coolly and clinically as part of a search for truth and understanding. And otherwise avoided like poison.

[LenaBaby61]

52. "DAMN! Pawlenty practically announced he's running for Franken's seat on CNN!"

These days, in which massive corruption of popular thinking has become normal, shouldn't those very words make you question everything everyone "believes"?

Speaking of massive corruption, how do we know that thuglicans won't rig HIM in there like they rigged fatso in? I put nothing past them. They're in BED with the ruskies and trashing our own Intelligence Agencies

We're living in tReasonous times where thuglicans are in bed with russia, and where Dems sit by, stay weak and eat each other

[Hortensis]

53. I wasn't talking about Pawlenty himself, Lena, but

about evaluating candidates for ourselves.

[Lee-Lee]

5. Presidential politics are a lot different than a Senate race in one state

He could win ten seat there and that would be one more in the way of us getting a Senate majority.

To dismiss the threat so casually based on a totally different race is not wise.

[MrsMatt]

6. You obviously don't understand MN politics

We are sometimes unpredictable.

examples:

Jesse Ventura elected governor

Bernie Sanders in primary

[Demsrule86]

8. Franken barely won Minnesota, there is reason for concern which is why

it was foolish to force him out on the flimsiest of evidence.

[LisaL]

12. And is resignation the only punishment, even assuming accusations are true (which I don't)?

[Demsrule86]

41. I don't think what he is accused of (which I don't believe) rises to the level of

being forced out...which is why I will not get over this easily.

[GoCubsGo]

36. He was re-elected with 53.2% of the vote.

I agree that it was foolish to force him out, but it's time for people to stop with the "He barely won" crap. That was true when he ran against Norm Coleman, but he has gone through a second election, which he won fairly handily.

[Demsrule86]

39. He barely won the first time.

It is stupid to risk the seat. In 08, he barely won and the legal battle lasted eight months. I also have no certainty that McConnell will seat Franken.

[GoCubsGo]

59. Yes. I said he barely won the first time.

I don't know what you mean by McConnell not seating Franken. He is already seated. He won his re-election in 2014 fairly handily, as I said. He was seated then.

And, I am not trying to argue that it isn't stupid for him to give up his seat. I fucking said that already. I am just saying that this "He barely won his seat" no longer applies, since he won a second term, and not "barely." Geez.

[Demsrule86]

60. My point was he had the incumbent advantage the second time.

[GoCubsGo]

61. No kidding. n/t

[Demsrule86]

42. As an incumbent. There is always an advantage for an incumbent....

In sports terms....this is an unforced error...really dumb to risk the seat.

[LBM20]

50. He won by a healthy margin for re-election.

[MoonRiver]

9. I'm worried because we needlessly took a safe Dem seat, and made it wide open.

[LisaL]

11. And we could end up losing it.

[MoonRiver]

14. Unfortunately, that is true.

[mythology]

16. Franken's approval rating dropped into the mid-30s

It wasn't a safe seat with Franken in it.

[MoonRiver]

17. Link or at least source?

[brooklynite]

22. KSTP TV

http://kstp.com/news/survey-franken-job-approval-plummets-many-say-he-should-resign/4678569/

In less than a week since sexual harassment allegations were leveled against Minnesota Senator Al Franken, his approval rating has plummeted and many Minnesotans say he should resign, according to an exclusive KSTP/SurveyUSA poll.

In a poll conducted Monday night after allegations from a second woman were made public, only 22 percent of 600 Minnesotans surveyed said he should remain in office. Another 33 percent say he should resign, while 36 percent say he should wait for results of a Senate Ethics Committee investigation. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent.

"To me the striking findings in this poll are first, that only 22 percent are behind Al Franken staying in office," Carleton College Political Scientist Steven Schier said.

[MoonRiver]

24. What would his support be if there were an Ethics Committee Investigation?

We'll never know, because he was railroaded without due process. Trial by mob is NOT the Democratic way.

[brooklynite]

26. Likely not better, and possibly worse.....

There wouldn't be an aggressive cross-examination of the accusers (because that would make for horrible TV) and there wouldn't be a full-throated denial of the charges (because Franken has already said he doesn't remember). Add to which, stretching this out adds the possibility of other accusers coming forward.

[Thor_MN]

31. Go promote your senators and stop attacking mine.

Does your employer know how much time you are spending on divisive social media?

[MoonRiver]

34. Thanks to Gillibrand and her Mob, we'll never know.

[Alice11111]

54. !!!

[riverwalker]

37. So 55% want him stay and go to Ethic Committee

That’s how I read that poll.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

19. Yeah but

Franken wouldn't have had to worry about running again until 2020 (2+ years from now), when this all would have probably blown over- if the accusations themselves didn't completely fall apart by then under the weight of an ethics investigation.

[Ninga]

20. Good grief...of course it dropped....Without an Ethics Hearing we will never know....nt

[Demsrule86]

43. We had six years...to go...so we could have waited run the investigation and see what happens.

also...he won by what 53% as an incumbent...that is not a landslide by any means. Also, what if McConnell pulls a 'Garland' and doesnt' seat the replacement?

[moonscape]

58. That was in a 3-week window. Polls change,

as that drop shows, and there was not enough time to have things settle before Dems pulled the plug on him.

They acted prematurely, and to my mind, shamefully.

[LanternWaste]

21. You're acting irrational again... one action does not define a totality.

You're acting irrational again... one action does not define a totality.

[Demsrule86]

7. I don't like Pawlenty.

He is slime.

[Stinky The Clown]

10. Of course he is. So will Norm Coleman.

Thanks for nothing, jumpers-on.

[brooklynite]

13. Coleman has already said hes not running.

[liberalhistorian]

28. I trust him abourt as much as I'd trust

a rattlesnake not to bite me if I picked it up. And I'd frankly almost rather deal with the rattlesnake.

[demmiblue]

15. Gee, who saw that coming?!

[liberalhistorian]

30. Does anyone else have the sneaking

suspicion that this was the plan, and why they wanted to go after Franken? There've been articles here the past couple months about how the repubs are coveting and targeting MN, and their strategies sure show it.

[Demsrule86]

44. I think this is exactly what happened...and some in our party helped them...so pissed.

Ah well...maybe he won't resign. I wouldn't.

[karynnj]

18. Pawlenty may be the most consistently overrated politician in the country

I remember when he was suppose to be a frontrunner in 2012 and was spoken of in the very early days in 2015 as a possibility. To put it mildly, he completely underperformed in Iowa, a MN border state.

https://newrepublic.com/article/84855/tim-pawlenty-republican-frontrunner-2012

From a Minnesota paper, it sound like the interest in him mostly reflects that the Republicans have a very shallow bench. It also notes that he is currently a lobbyist for organizations like banks. He was governor until 2011 - meaning he will have been out of office for 7 years by the time he could be running.
http://www.startribune.com/pawlenty-for-governor-in-2018-talk-of-comeback-bid-getting-louder/450920483/

Here is an article from 2010, his last year as Governor shows that his approval rating was at 42%. The Republican who ran in the race to replace him lost badly. The following link includes a chart showing his approval rating in MN over his entire time as Governor. This really backs the Star Tribune implication that it is the dearth of Republican political talent that makes him interesting.

http://editions.lib.umn.edu/smartpolitics/2006/12/20/minnesotas-approval-of-pawlent/

Now, as to Franken, the big thing is that he was not up until 2020. For Democrats, it means an extra race in 2018 when we are already defending a huge number of states. Not to mention, if we win as is very likely, the seat is STILL up in 2020 again. Note that NONE of that says anything about Al Franken.

Once the accusations came out, they destroyed Franken's approval in Minnesota. Because he resigned, we will have a race in 2018, which we will be favored to win - even against Pawlenty. (I would doubt that his years as a lobbyist will improve his popularity from when he was governor. ) Any candidate will have Senator Klobuchar, who has an approval rating that is among the highest for Senators - 72% last April - supporting him or her. http://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-results-senatorial-job-approval-ratings/420758934/

However, it likely means we could have a stronger incumbent in 2020. While you can see in the link on Klobuchar, last April, he had a 58% approval rating. Other polls put him at 52 - 53 before the accusations. If there were no accusations, he would have been in reasonably good shape - given those numbers and Minnesota's orientation. However, his approval plummeted with those accusations to numbers in the 30s. However, in projecting where he would be in 2020, it is likely that BOTH of these estimates would be wrong. It is unlikely that he would be as high as he was before the accusations (they will have some lasting effect), but he would be nowhere near as low as he was when they first came out. Even with a small impact, he changes from a shoo in to a toss up.

I would assume that any Democrat who wins in 2018 will be given a huge amount of support to help them look good in the Senate. This is what happened in 2006, when we were in the minority in both Houses, and Menendez was appointed after Corzine became Governor of NJ. It was Menendez,who sponsored some popular in blue state's amendments that would play well in NJ - that were regularly done by Democrats. It is very possible that this new Senator will be as strong or stronger in terms of re-election than Franken would be.

Still - we have two chances to lose the state, when we used to have one.

[liberalhistorian]

29. He's a legend in his own mind

and he's arrogant enough that he'll never admit or accept that.

[karynnj]

33. LOL -- It is fascinating how the media forms CW around some who really did not have the

substance to back it up. The other Republican that comes to mind of that sort is Senator Thune -- who starting in about 2005 was always mentioned, though even though that was an interval when CSPAN 2 was my most watched station, I never understood why.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. 2018 is shaping up to be a Blue Wave.

If we can't defend a seat in blueish purple Minnesota we have larger problems.

[liberalhistorian]

32. The problem is that, outside of the twin

cities, the state has, quite unfortunately, been trending more and more red. The DFL seems helpless to stop it.

[workinclasszero]

25. The pussy grabber is thankful for the opening

In Franken's Fall, Sudden Senate Pickup Chance for Republicans
By Kyle Potter & Thomas Beaumont December 08, 2017

Franken’s exit gives Republicans an opening to expand their reach in an already favorable Senate map — two dozen Democratic senators are up for re-election next year, including 10 in states that President Donald Trump carried in 2016. That difficult math raises the question of whether Dayton will appoint a temporary placeholder or try to give a Democrat a running start for the 2018 campaign.

Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty — the last Republican to win a statewide election in Minnesota, in 2006 — was seen as a potential heavyweight contender in the GOP.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2017/12/08/in_frankens_fall_sudden_senate_pickup_chance_for_republicans_135730.html

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10029967502

[WhiskeyGrinder]

35. Did he talk about how his DOT let a bridge fall down on his watch?

[riverwalker]

38. Bannon said he targeting Minnesota

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/03/bannon-meets-with-house-gop-campaign-strategists-244514

[MoonRiver]

40. That so sucks.

[Alice11111]

56. That was as sure as the sun coming up.

[eissa]

45. We already have an uphill battle next year

This whole "blue wave" myth is really overly-optimistic. Many of the seats we have to defend are in solidly red, or at least purple, regions. Franken's seat was safe until at least 2020. Now it's in play due to the usual short-sightedness of our leaders, and the political aspirations of Gillibrand. And yes, I and many others will point the finger directly at her if we lose that seat.

[MoonRiver]

47. Gillibrand really overplayed her hand.

She's probably toast as a 2020 presidential primary contender.

[eissa]

48. I truly hope so

If she runs, I'm going to work my ass off to make sure she doesn't get the nomination.

[MoonRiver]

49. Me too.

[LBM20]

51. 2018 is going to be a blue wave year. Get a good Dem to run and tie Pawlenty to Trump.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

55. The law of unintended consequences

I Tweeted that to Tom Perez when he called for Franken's resignation.

[book_worm]

57. First thing he needs to be asked is if he supports an investigation into allegations about Trump

and if they are credible if he would call for Trump's resignation.

[brooklynite]

62. Why should I worry about a guy who's been out of office for 7 years?