Emerson College Poll: Moore with Significant 9-point Lead in Final Poll.

[oberliner]

In the final Emerson College poll before the election, GOP candidate Roy Moore now leads the
Democratic candidate Doug Jones 53% to 44%, a six point bump from last week’s Emerson
poll. The poll suggests Moore has weathered the storm of alleged sexual misconduct; The
survey has a sample size of 600 very likely voters, and has a margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Emerson_College_Alabama_Dec_11.pdf

[book_worm]

1. Even though Fox came out with a poll today giving Jones a 10-point lead I think

Moore will win unless enough GOP voters instead write in somebody else and not vote Moore (or Jones) and Jones can get a strong democratic vote turnout.

[oberliner]

4. Fox is obviously playing games with their polling

For the reasons stated below.

[Fred Sanders]

8. Do you that think the Fox poll unscientific?

[oberliner]

12. I generally don't trust Fox

[LanternWaste]

18. Do you thing that the Fox poll is scientific?

It then begs the question, do you think that the Fox poll is scientific (in our case, the relevant word is 'valid' not 'scientific.' A heads-up for future usage)?

[Thor_MN]

9. Fox is more than willing to throw one poll to help seat a Republican senator.

They can control the outcome simply by how they initiate the poll. They would get very different results by IDing as a Fox poll vs. some other pseudonym.

[blm]

2. leading the cheers

eh?

[oberliner]

3. Huh?

I would assert that the Fox News Poll showing Moore way behind is BS propaganda designed to depress Democratic voter turnout and get right-wingers fired up and motivated.

This poll, on the other hand, will hopefully motivate folks in the other direction.

[Fred Sanders]

5. The Fox poll shows a wide enthusiasm gap now in favor of Democrats. Fox poll is better:

"Moore might prevail if only the people who typically vote in Alabama elections turn out Tuesday, which is often what happens in special elections,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican counterpart Daron Shaw.

“But this appears to be a special, special election with blacks and young voters animated by a caustic Republican candidate and the chance of winning a statewide election with national implications, and at the same time some Republicans and many moderates are turned off by Moore, too.”

A subtle but potentially noteworthy finding is Alabama voters who were interviewed on cellphones are +30 for Jones, while the race is roughly even among all others. The fact that traditional, high-quality probability samples, like the Fox News Poll, include both landline and cellphone numbers may be why these polls show Jones doing relatively well compared to automated or blended polls."

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12/11/fox-news-poll-enthused-democrats-give-jones-lead-over-moore-in-alabama.html

[oberliner]

14. Fingers crossed

[Kingofalldems]

7. Every freaking day.

[oberliner]

15. It's crazy

Let's hope tomorrow night we can all celebrate Doug Jones winning in Alabama!

[onenote]

17. Another explanation for the Fox poll: to make Trump look good

Show Jones with a big lead in a poll taken Thursday to Sunday.
And if/when Moore wins, give credit to Trump.
Or even if Jones was to manage to defeat Moore, it will be a margin smaller than what the poll suggests, so they can give credit to Trump for making it close.

[Baconator]

6. Polling is insanely difficult for this one...

Republicans don't want to admit that they are going to vote for him and they also don't want to admit they'll vote for a democrat...

The only numbers I'd have any confidence in are traditional democrat voters. The numbers that will pull away from Moore are impossible to predict.

[MFM008]

10. Didn't we learn once

Polls are crap.

[Fred Sanders]

11. Yes, which is why everyone has stopped doing them!?

[riversedge]

13. umm. Almost flip flopped the Fox Poll. Strange.

[oberliner]

16. Yeah the polling on this has been nuts

[FBaggins]

19. This looks like it could be the largest "shy Torie" effect ever

Automated polling is showing a significant Moore lead... but when actual humans talk to actual humans... they can't bring themselves to say that they would vote for him.