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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy I Think Doug Jones Will Win on Tuesday
I will make a reasoned evaluation on the Alabama Senate race. I have not been down there and I have no inside knowledge of any kind, but I will attempt to use deductive reasoning to back up my prediction.
Why Doug Jones will win:
(1). Although Donald Trump has weighed into this race, his popularity, even in Alabama is only just above 50%, according to a news story I saw on CNN. He also couldn't transfer his popular strength, even in a Republican only race, to Luther Strange. Trump may have even awakened anti-Trump voters in Alabama.
(2). Every time Roy Moore has run in a General Election, he has underperformed Republican voters. He only received 51% in his most recent state wide race. He resembles a lunatic, even by Alabama standards, and that's before his child molestation charges.
(3). Doug Jones is a good candidate. He was a federal prosecutor who brought terrorists to justice and he carries no baggage into the final election. He has been campaigning non-stop for the past 10 days, while Roy Moore is hiding in his bed room.
(4). The Virginia Affect: Well, not only Virginia, but let's use the most recent Virginia election for an example. We all were prepared for a close loss last month in that Governor's race. Instead, Northam won by 9 points. 9 fucking points. Northam out performed Hillary with Kaine on the ticket. I know Virginia is no Alabama, but it's still the South and Terry McAuliffe is no Roy Moore. But, even Oklahoma, Philly suburbs, New Jersey and down ballot Democrats all over the country are over performing. Why do we think Tuesday will be any different? I know Trump would win Alabama if the election were held today against any Democrat. But not by 30 points. I'm sure Luther Strange would win by 10 points Tuesday, if he were the Republican candidate. But he's not. I don't care how you feel about Alabama voters, the ones not going to Moore rallies must be as disgusted as you and me about being represented by a credibly accused child molester.
(5). The black vote will respond. Some estimates are that Jones needs a 28% turnout among Blacks. I estimate he can win with a 25% black turnout. But, how can any black stay home when an avowed racist is a candidate against a man who put the KKK members who killed the 4 little girls in a Birmingham church 50 years ago, in jail? I have more faith than most. I think they'll come out Tuesday.
Summary: The over performance of all Democratic candidates everywhere in this country is my biggest evidence to back up my prediction. I believe Democrats have a 5 to 10 point hidden advantage in 2017 and 2018. I think if a poll has a Democratic candidate down 4 points, they'll win by 1 to 6 points. That's been the case all over the country this year and I don't think Alabama will be any different this Tuesday.
Phoenix61
(17,006 posts)what to think. Nothing would make me happier, short of Twitler being impeached, than for you to be right.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)louis c
(8,652 posts)The total turnout should be 25% of all voters. A quarter of all voters are African-American. If Jones got a 75% turnout among black voters, we wouldn't need a single white vote to win.
Aristus
(66,386 posts)African-American turnout.
The hillbillies and swamp-swimmers could probably get away with challenging as many as 10% of ballots cast in black precincts.
More than that, and they're looking at a national civil rights investigation into voter suppression.
African-Americans opposed to Moore's candidacy will have to turn out in huge numbers to overcome the inevitable suppression by white Alabamans.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)70% is closer to the number it will take if vote is like other Senatorial elections there or 2016 Presidential election.
Then, again, not sure its right/fair to expect Blacks to bail stupid white majority out of that cess pool of a state anymore than any other group young, elderly, etc.
skylucy
(3,739 posts)disalitervisum
(470 posts)the benefit of the doubt, I can't imagine how they could explain Moore's election to their 14 year-old daughters four years from now, whey they are 18.
0rganism
(23,957 posts)i think we can evaluate this more easily from the standpoint of personality cults. which candidate is the race more "about"? where is the media focused, positively or negatively? by that measure, it's Moore by 10. could be more if the off-year effect further depresses Democratic turnout.
but hell, maybe i'm wrong. i would happily be wrong on this. please Alabama, prove me wrong.
louis c
(8,652 posts)and even the loses are over performances.
0rganism
(23,957 posts)i'll start: Danica Roem over Bob Marshall for Virginia delegates
in a way, Bob shot himself in the foot by (1) authoring a bunch of legislation that targeted Roem (transgender), and (2) trying to run on it against one of his own victims. she was able to point to her own situation and how it was impeded by Marshall's assholery, which made her campaign much stronger and turned his into a nasty foil. discrimination laws never look as nifty when you can attach a name to the persecuted party.
if Moore were running against one of his teen victims or someone else he'd fucked over politically in the past, they'd probably have an edge.
any you'd particularly like to raise, where the R got the lion's share of coverage and the D still won? that would definitely support your angle, which i support in principle and hope holds true on Tuesday.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)0rganism
(23,957 posts)wheras mr. Marshall's self-shooting was all about his victims.
0rganism
(23,957 posts)you get my k&r
Mme. Defarge
(8,033 posts)and the creek dont rise.
Irish_Dem
(47,131 posts)lastlib
(23,244 posts)...so that prolly means NO voting system is secure. "It's not who votes that counts, but who counts the votes.".....
I think that raises the Dems' bar by about 10%, just guessing........
Irish_Dem
(47,131 posts)GOP SOS does mean some tomfoolery likely in the voting system.
sandensea
(21,639 posts)I would only add that whatever plans the GOPee has to steal this elections - be it voter roll 'blackouts', tampering of voting machines by hackers, good ol' fashioned ballot box stuffing, or all of the above - that they fail and that moreover they become a dynamite embarrassment.
UTUSN
(70,708 posts)IronLionZion
(45,452 posts)and don't want to admit they are voting for the pedophile
We saw it with Trump where a lot of women didn't want to admit they were supporting the grabber
But no matter who wins, Dems still win in a way because we can tie every Republican to the pervert who preys on 14 year old girls
IamFortunesFool
(348 posts)The fact that the race is even close denotes Jones over performing by up to 20% already, my friend. Only because Moore is such an awful crucible of conscience for the knuckle dragging fundamentalists in Bama is there any hope for a democratic candidate.
Dont get me wrong, I hope youre right. But as a long term resident of the rural south, Im accustomed to inexplicable fascism being repeatedly and enthusiastically elected by religious fools.
Moore will be elected and the Republican Congress will use him as a handy squirrel for the MSM to chase around rather than focus on the treasonous hyjacking of our republic.
mountain grammy
(26,623 posts)The same thing just based on his belief in people. I like everything you said and hope youre right
denbot
(9,900 posts)At this point I wouldnt pish-posh a little magical thinking either.
sweetloukillbot
(11,029 posts)There are already big-name Republicans in the state encouraging write-ins, there is at least one active write-in campaigner. If they can peel off enough Rs, that will help Jones as well.
58Sunliner
(4,386 posts)It was the highest of the state. They kept saying it would be very close, yet it was not really. So why are they getting it wrong? There were not a plethora of yard signs either. But the timing was significant, given Charlottesville, and the attention given to a candidate who would not openly oppose racist "confederates". It was a vote for the future of the state and a decisive vote to endorse a realistic narrative of the history of the state that respected everyone. A big no to white supremacy as well. I have my fingers crossed.
I should also include that health care was a big issue according to the polls. If you can believe them.
Jakes Progress
(11,122 posts)I have friends in Alabama who tell me that many from the rural black community are very starch evangelicals and hard right Baptists. Under no circumstance will they vote for someone who supports abortion rights or lgbt rights. Their idea is that they hate moore but won't vote for Jones, so they will not turn out.
We'll see how that comes out after the election.
(Of course there are the rigged and stuffed ballot boxes too. You gotta wonder if the polls ever consider that margin.)
keithbvadu2
(36,828 posts)Roy whining about 'outsiders' but NYC Yankee telling 'Bamans how to vote?
Interesting!
PatrickforO
(14,576 posts)I really do.
Greywing
(1,124 posts)in the people of this country.
mr_liberal
(1,017 posts)People vote on the issues. They get mad when you try to make it about a candidate's personal life.
Heather MC
(8,084 posts)You know it's comments like this I really don't understand why the Democratic party thinks black people should be loyal to them. I'm sorry I don't know why the Democratic party thinks "any black" should be loyal to them.
louis c
(8,652 posts)Last edited Mon Dec 11, 2017, 07:20 AM - Edit history (1)
If people who are discriminated against don't want people who are not to work to help end that discrimination, just let me know. It's just as easy for me to stay home and enjoy the rest of my life without politics.
Heather MC
(8,084 posts)As if that's not a problem as well.
So your excuse is, black people can't be treated as human because it's a political analysis?
Thank you for clearing that up
louis c
(8,652 posts)we are all demographics, also.
During the civil rights movement in the 60's, African Americans (and many Northern Whites) gave or risked their lives for voting rights, not only in the South, but all over this country. Why any African-American would stay home in an election where an avowed racist was running for the U.S. Senate, is beyond me.
I've spent my life in politics to help elect minorities, women and people of color. I've worked on the Deval Patrick campaign, Elizabeth Warren, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Katherine Clark. Hell, I go back to Ed Brooke, where my father taught me about politics. I have fought hard to elect people that will change society and diversify our leaders. In each instance, it was of no personal benefit to me. I have a 30 year union job. I am a 65 year old white male. I have a defined pension and Social Security, an annuity, I own my own home and have 100% employer paid for health insurance. I am in the demographic that is favored by Republican policies, yet Ed Brooke is the only Republican I ever voted for.
Every election I have ever been involved with, breaks down demographic data and targets a Get Out The Vote (GOTV) plan. All of that is done to help human beings, especially those who government has marginalized or forgotten.
Your criticism of me is misplaced and counter productive. In order for change to be made in this country for human beings, we need to win elections, and analysis of demographic data is necessary for that to occur.
Heather MC
(8,084 posts)louis c
(8,652 posts)JonLP24
(29,322 posts)Now that the votes have been counted folks can stop blaming black voters for the Alabama race.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)Not comparable. The fact that it is a federal race and not a state race works against us and makes the Virginia comparison even less relevant.
Northam was favored and won. Moore is favored and will win. I think the margin will be above the poll consensus.
nancy1942
(635 posts)Alabama is full of religious oddities who will always vote against the candidate who believes in a woman's right to choose. Always.
Doodley
(9,093 posts)It comes down to this: does the level of disgust, anger and disappointment about Trump (and Roy Moore) outweigh the avid support for Trump and Moore in Alabama? Polls might give Moore the edge, but the trend is also falling national numbers for Trump in the last week, although that hasn't shown in the Senate polls.
misanthrope
(7,418 posts)You would have to live here to understand because just hearing about it doesn't tell you pervasive its problems and issues are.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,234 posts)I learned my lesson in Osoff vs. Handel in the GA-06. I think the reason Jones has been able to keep it so close in polling is that he's kept a low profile nationally. Any candidate, in states like GA & AL, should steer clear of MSNBC.
I guess my point is, please don't draw any inferences from what happened in VA. AL is a whole different animal.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Last edited Thu Dec 13, 2018, 05:51 PM - Edit history (2)
Great call!
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)been saying that since the beginning and have never wavered. The deep south rarely fails to live down to my expectations.
louis c
(8,652 posts)I think this race is winnable. I believe in a 50 state strategy and I believe in fighting every fight and trying to win them all.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)and fought to win but it would take a true miracle for child molester moore not to win.
louis c
(8,652 posts)Stargleamer
(1,989 posts)"it won't be close"?? Methinks you were a tad off. Thankfully, Jones had campaign workers and volunteers who believed in his chances
oberliner
(58,724 posts)This is a great victory!
grantcart
(53,061 posts)I have a vision of lots of retired women who spent their lives working in companies out performing their male colleagues and then getting pissed in the middle of an important meeting being asked to get some more coffee right when she was about to make a point that would save the company millions.
I have faith in thousands of women who are tired not just the physical assaults but all of the little slights and under promotion who will go to the polls without a lot of fanfare and deliver a smack down. I would like to believe that a few of the older ones will dispatch their husbands absentee vote in the town dump in a little move of payback while she then goes and buys him a maple bar at the grocery.
lunatica
(53,410 posts)And there are a lot of Fundamentalists who fear God more than anything else 'cause god is the last word in their beliefs.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)MustLoveBeagles
(11,611 posts)Rhiannon12866
(205,467 posts)customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)I really thought the Moore would pull it out tonight. (Hey, don't go there, that's NOT what I meant!)
I suppose enough of Alabama thought enough of their reputation to avoid being represented in the Senate by the worst of all possible choices. I still have my doubts that we can keep this seat, but for now, it will do. Collins, Corker, and/or Flake will give the Orange Menace enough to worry about for 2018.
louis c
(8,652 posts)Here's another prediction, while I'm hot. Doug Jones will be in office when Trump is not.
customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)He will either vote like a progressive, in which case the Alabama electorate will vote him out as soon as they get a better choice in front of them (child molesters need not apply) or he will do what he said he would do, and cross the aisle here and there when he feels he needs to do so because of an arguably more conservative constituent base. If he does the latter, will his strong support from Democratic voters hold out? That remains to be seen.
misanthrope
(7,418 posts)The next time he's up, it's a presidential election year. Turnout will be high. The Alabama GOP will offer up a 2020 candidate who is far more palatable to Alabama voters and that "D" behind Jones' name will be hard to overcome.
Turbineguy
(37,342 posts)in me that wanted Roy Moore to win. He would utterly destroy the republican party. There would be a lot of misery. Even without his sexual proclivities he is a terrible person. A real POS. But is the damage worth the price?
Even Senator Flake said, "Decency wins".
For the US in the larger sense, this is a good win. Trump is in even more trouble.
And Steve Bannon, the Yassir Arafat of the republican party, helped. Maybe that's enough.
TNLib
(1,819 posts)USALiberal
(10,877 posts)but DAILY we here........
Muller will be fired
More arrests coming
Trump is done
Blah!
Gets old.
louis c
(8,652 posts)We hear is spelled H-E-A-R: as in listen.
Here is the place you're at.
Were did you go to school?
I've never predicted Mueller would be fired, there are more arrests coming and Trump's tenure will not end well.
Who's side are you on?
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)Daily I read about what "is about to happen soon" from people who have no clue.
The NYT and Washington Post would be good places to get good information. Actual reporters, etc.
And even take them with a grain of salt.
Until Mueller starts posting, I'll remain a skeptic.
louis c
(8,652 posts)You seem to need some grammar lessons, along with Trump.
Trump had trouble in his latest tweet with discerning the difference between "there and their". this is not a typo, but a lack of knowledge.
In your post here, you can't tell the difference between "here" and "Hear".
As we mock the President in his inability to tell the difference between "to" and "too", I can't help but notice that you have the same problem as he does.
Your post:
USALiberal (763 posts)
61. Well, that was a 50/50. And you knew the day it was decided.....
but DAILY we here........
Muller will be fired
More arrests coming
Trump is done
Blah!
http://ew.com/tv/2017/08/24/trump-their-twitter-typo/