A Wave Is a Comin' - Cook Political Report

[DonViejo]

Amy Walter
November 16, 2017

The last two weeks have seen some significant movement in Democrats favor. First, there were the impressive results from last Tuesday's elections. This week, we’ve seen two polls — one by Quinnipiac and one by Marist — that show Democrats with a congressional ballot advantage of +13 to +15. Three other recent polls — ABC/Washington Post, Fox, and NBC/Wall Street Journal — show Democrats with an advantage of anywhere from +7 to +15.

These are political wave numbers.



But, is it realistic to think that Democrats could retain this kind of advantage into 2018? Moreover, given the Republican structural advantage — gerrymandered seats plus Democrats’ self-sorting into urban areas — is that kind of margin even big enough to net 24 seats?

My colleague David Wasserman has been digging into the question of just how big of a wave Democrats need to get in order to surf into the majority. The short answer: they need to see a generic ballot advantage of +8 or more, which roughly translates to getting at least 54 percent or more of the national House vote in 2018.

The last time Democrats enjoyed a margin of +8 or more in a mid-term year was 2006. That year, Democrats won the House vote by 8.5 percent. The last time that Democrats got into the double digits was 2008 when they carried the House vote by D+11. This has led to a lots of talk that Democrats can only hit significant margins of victory in presidential elections when their base is more engaged and involved. It also helped to have a transformational candidate - Barack Obama - at the top of the ticket. Something they obviously don't have in 2018. But, there is precedent for Democrats winning the House vote by double digits in mid-term years. In the post-Watergate midterm of 1974, Democrats won by a whopping 17 points. In Ronald Reagan’s first midterm of 1982, Democrats won the House vote by 12 points.

more
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/wave-comin

[Gothmog]

1. It does look like 2018 will be a wave year

[peggysue2]

2. Read this last night

That 13-15+ advantage from Quinnipiac & Marist isn't simply a wave--it's a tsunami. Lots can happen between now and November of next year but this Administration is so-o-o awful, I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers rise.

Grab your surfboards and GOTV. The waters are Blue.

[MineralMan]

3. So Mote it Be!

[treestar]

4. I hope we have learned to go and vote

It is possible to get more House votes overall and still not control Congress.