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MFM008

(19,820 posts)
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 10:32 PM Nov 2017

Interesting how this years polling

MATCHES the vote.
Interesting how LAST years was soooooooo way off the predictions.
like someone interfered in the polling OR/and the VOTE TOTALS
to favor the maggot.
interesting isnt it.........................

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Interesting how this years polling (Original Post) MFM008 Nov 2017 OP
this election is the first one in decades drray23 Nov 2017 #1
I've been thinking this now for many, many election cycles. fierywoman Nov 2017 #2
It actually underplayed Northam greatly bearsfootball516 Nov 2017 #3
What are you talking about? mythology Nov 2017 #4
State level polling was horribly off ... Mostly in Republican voter suppression states uponit7771 Nov 2017 #6
most polls were off by as much as 5 points MFM008 Nov 2017 #7
+1, been saying the polsters owe America an explanation uponit7771 Nov 2017 #5

drray23

(7,637 posts)
1. this election is the first one in decades
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 10:34 PM
Nov 2017

that is all paper ballots. It was recently ordered by the court that all virginia voting precints had to convert to paper. They did. Makes you wonder ..

bearsfootball516

(6,377 posts)
3. It actually underplayed Northam greatly
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 10:41 PM
Nov 2017

Most polls had him winning by 3-4. He’s going to end up winning around 10.

 

mythology

(9,527 posts)
4. What are you talking about?
Tue Nov 7, 2017, 10:44 PM
Nov 2017

The national polls were off by about 1% in 2016, closer than they were in 2012. This nonsense about the polls being so wrong needs to die.

Clinton won the national popular vote by two percentage points according to certified vote tallies compiled by David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. Most individual surveys found Clinton holding a small single-digit edge over Trump, averaging to a three-point margin. Looking across individual national polls, the average difference from the final Clinton-Trump vote margin is 2.2 percentage points, much smaller than the level of error apparent when they were compared to preliminary vote results (3.4 points).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/10/how-much-did-polls-miss-the-mark-on-trump-and-why/?utm_term=.799cbe177ba8

Another myth is that Trump’s victory represented some sort of catastrophic failure for the polls. Trump outperformed his national polls by only 1 to 2 percentage points in losing the popular vote to Clinton, making them slightly closer to the mark than they were in 2012. Meanwhile, he beat his polls by only 2 to 3 percentage points in the average swing state.3 Certainly, there were individual pollsters that had some explaining to do, especially in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Trump beat his polls by a larger amount. But the result was not some sort of massive outlier; on the contrary, the polls were pretty much as accurate as they’d been, on average, since 1968.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/

The fact that people pushing nonsensical vote fraud theories can't even be bothered to at least look up the basic facts is a big part of why I don't take any of those theories seriously. The actual numbers are absolutely clear.

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