The Geography of Gun Deaths

[xchrom]

http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2011/01/the-geography-of-gun-deaths/69354/


Terrible tragedies like last week's mass shootings in Tucson cause us to search for deeper answers. Many were quick to blame America's divisive and vitriolic political culture for the violence; others portray the shooter as an unhinged, clinically deranged person with his own unfathomable agenda. Arizona has been ground zero for the battle over immigration. Were the state's political and economic travails a contributing factor? There has been some talk about guns, too. Might tighter gun control laws have made a difference?


***SNIP

With these data in hand, I decided to look at the factors associated with gun deaths at the state level. With the help of my colleague Charlotta Mellander, we charted the statistical correlations between firearm deaths and a variety of psychological, economic, social, and political characteristics of states. As usual, I point out that correlation does not imply causation, but simply points to associations between variables.



***SNIP

Firearm deaths are significantly lower in states with stricter gun control legislation. Though the sample sizes are small, we find substantial negative correlations between firearm deaths and states that ban assault weapons (-.45), require trigger locks (-.42), and mandate safe storage requirements for guns (-.48).

[Comrade_McKenzie]

1. Recc'd for facts and figures. nt

[tosh]

12. +1.

[CreekDog]

31. here's more about the rate of gun ownership and rate of gun deaths

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=118x357945

Top 10 states in gun ownership: (average rate of gun ownership: 43% average gun death rate: 16.6)
Bottom 10 states in gun ownership: (average rate of gun ownership: 5.1 average gun death rate: 5.1)

and if you think they are all getting pushed out of windows in non-gun owning states, well, compare Mississippi to New York City (or State). the rate of murders in New York state is far lower than Mississippi, in fact, New York City's murder rate is lower than Mississippi's.

and here are the numbers I used...but again, i don't believe in a million years that any number i post will ever, ever lead you to say, "thank you, that's a good analysis." and your evidence for not doing so will be specious.

%OWN GUNS / GUN DEATHRATE
LA 44.1 19.9
MI 38.4 18.3
AK 57.8 17.6
AL 51.7 17.6
NV 33.8 16.2
AR 55.3 15.1
AZ 31.1 15
NM 34.8 15
TN 43.9 15
WV 55.4 14.8
MT 57.7 14.5
WY 59.7 14.5
KY 47.7 14.4
OK 42.9 13.4
SC 42.3 13.4
GA 40.3 13.1
MS 55.3 12.9
FL 24.5 12.5
ID 55.3 12.5
NC 41.3 12.3
MD 21.3 12.1
MN 41.7 10.9
PA 34.7 10.7
TX 35.9 10.7
VA 35.1 10.7
IN 39.1 10.6
KS 42.1 10.5
CO 34.7 10.4
OR 39.8 10.4
OH 32.4 9.6
UT 43.9 9.5
DE 25.5 9.2
CA 21.3 9
ND 50.7 8.9
WI 44.4 8.7
WA 33.1 8.5
VT 42 8.4
ME 40.5 8.1
IL 20.2 8
NE 38.6 8
MO 41.7 6.6
SD 56.6 6.5
NH 30 5.9
IA 42.8 5.3
NJ 12.3 5.2
NY 18 5.1
CT 16.7 4.3
MA 12.6 3.6
RI 12.8 3.5
HI 8.7 2.8

Least restrictive gun laws:
GUN DEATH RATE / RANK (least to most restrictive gun laws)
AZ 15 1
ID 12.5 2
VT 8.4 3
MI 18.3 4
KY 14.4 5
NM 15 6
AR 15.1 7
WY 14.5 8
ME 8.1 9
MT 14.5 10
AK 17.6 11
MO 12.9 12
GA 13.1 13
KS 10.5 14
ND 8.9 15
SD 6.5 16
OK 13.4 17
UT 9.5 18
NE 8 19
SC 13.4 20
IN 10.6 21
NV 16.2 22
LA 19.9 23
CO 10.4 24
WV 14.8 25
NH 5.9 26
AL 17.6 27
NC 12.3 28
OH 9.6 29
OR 10.4 30
TN 15 31
TX 10.7 32
DE 9.2 33
WI 8.7 34
VA 10.7 35
MN 6.6 36
WA 8.5 37
IA 5.3 38
MI 10.9 39
PA 10.7 40
FL 12.5 41
RI 3.5 42
NY 5.1 43
MD 12.1 44
IL 8 45
CT 4.3 46
HI 2.8 47
MA 3.6 48
NJ 5.2 49
CA 9 50

[Blue_In_AK]

41. Your statistics kind of bear out the point I was making below.

Alaska has one of the highest rates of gun ownership but proportionately a smaller rate of gun deaths than, say, New Jersey or California. There are all kinds of variables hidden inside the statistics.

[byeya]

2. This is really thought provoking. Well done!

[leveymg]

3. Confirms what's long been suspected - happy, affluent liberals in CT rarely shoot up movie theaters.

Who reads The Atlantic?

[xchrom]

4. Lol! Happy, affluent liberals in CT. Nt

[kctim]

5. Would be more accurate if done on the county level

[Capt. Obvious]

11. Why stop there

It would be more accurate if done on the town level.

It would be even more accurate if done on the block level.

It would be super more accurate if done on the street level.

Actually, that wouldn't change the accuracy at all.

[kctim]

24. It would change the accuracy by a lot

as it would narrow down the locations of responsible gun owners and irresponsible gun owners.
Doing this would show why fear based anti-2nd Amendment legislation blanketed across the country as whole is not wanted, needed or supported.

[Capt. Obvious]

33. And then Louisiana would no longer be #1

[DCKit]

6. Sheesh! Given the distance you'd have to drive in some of those western states....

just to find someone to shoot at, you'd think the numbers would be far lower than on the over crowded coasts.

[Lizzie Poppet]

7. In many Western states, the population tends to be concentrated in cities.

There isn't as much of the "build up" of the rural and semi-rural countryside that you see out East. there are a bunch of people in the urban/suburban centers, and a lot of (mostly) empty country in between them.

[CreekDog]

32. Western States are more urban than the most urban states back east

for example, Nevada.

because, related to what you've pointed out, in Nevada, almost the entire population lives in the urbanized areas of Las Vegas and Reno.

in a place like New York, sure more people live in New York City, but there's a larger part of the population in the countryside than in say, rural Nevada, rural Utah or rural Arizona.

[pscot]

9. I believe most shootings happen at home

Saves travel.

[hack89]

8. Gun violence is concentrated in poor urban areas

Even within a small state like mine (Rhode Island), the vast majority of murders are concentrated in a few poor, high crime areas.

Poverty, drugs and gangs are the real problem.

[CreekDog]

20. you need some statistics to back that claim up, without them, it's just a stereotype

people don't realize how much gun violence is domestic violence and how having guns in the home gives people with no record and no other obvious issues, the means to take a loved ones life in a moment of anger.

[hack89]

22. Go talk to the cops in Chicago, DC or Philly

or any other city in the top 10 most dangerous cities in America.

[CreekDog]

29. that's not DATA, you know what, just say whatever you want, that's what you'll do anyway

[hack89]

35. "Over half of homicides (57.7%) occurred in cities with a population of 100,000 or more"

Trends by city size

Changes in homicide trends have been driven by changes in
the number of homicides in large American cities

From 1980 to 2008

- Over half of homicides (57.7%) occurred in cities with a
population of 100,000 or more ( figure 45).

- More than a third of all homicides in large cities occurred in the
biggest cities (those with a population of 1 million or more) (not
shown).

http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf

Read the entire document - tells you everything you would ever want to know about murder in America. Addresses everything from gang violence to domestic abuse.

[ieoeja]

40. Over 82% of Americans live in or near cities. Which makes the rural homicide rate much higher. n/t

[hack89]

43. You would be wrong about rural rates

http://oregonexplorer.info/rural/RuralIssues/CrimeandPolicing

or

The belief that crime occurs less frequently in rural areas is supported by recent
UCR data (see exhibit 1). Of particular interest is a comparison between police
reports of crime in cities of 250,000 people or more and in rural counties that
are outside metropolitan statistical areas and cover areas not under the jurisdiction
of municipal police departments. Exhibit 1 shows that urban crime rates
are higher than rural crime rates for every FBI Crime Index offense. Violent
crime rates are especially high in large cities relative to rural counties.

https://www.ncjrs.gov/criminal_justice2000/vol_1/02g.pdf

[bongbong]

44. Get used to gun-religionists

They misuse statistics 24x7 in defense of their Precious.

[hack89]

25. America's 25 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods

Everyone of these neighborhoods is urban and poor.

http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/LifeStages/americas-dangerous-neighborhoods-areas-violent-crime/story?id=11803334#.UAmTRlLB__o

[CreekDog]

28. rural crime and non-urban crime data please, you have provided none

if you only provide data from one kind of place, then only those kind of places are included.

[hack89]

30. Read my post and link again

it looks at the FBI crime data, sorts it by ZIP code and ranks neighborhoods by crime rates. Rural crime and non-urban crime was part of the analysis.

[ieoeja]

39. I didn't find anything there.

It showed rates for various size of cities with 100,000 or more people. But I could not find a rural rate. However, it is safe to assume the rural rate is higher based on:

57% of homicides in cities
82% of Americans live in or around cities

Interestingly, while the victimization rate is slightly higher in cities of over 1 million than in cities of 100,000-199,999, the offender rate is pretty much the same. Also, the rates in large cities has been dropping dramatically, while the rates in that smallest category has remained fairly stable. So the largest cities have caught up (in a good way) to the smaller large cities.

[HopeHoops]

10. It's pretty intuitive.

[RainDog]

13. k&r n/t

[Doctor_J]

14. Looks to be a correlation between modest gun control

and lower rates of firearm deaths.

Who would have thought that

[Chorophyll]

17. Yup! Who indeed?

Logic is a tough sell when it comes to guns, somehow.

[skip fox]

15. My state, Louisiana, the worst!

Worse than any western or southern state.

[Chorophyll]

16. Nicely done.

Much appreciated.

[barbtries]

18. i have to admit CA surprises me.

since i'm from Los Angeles and to me it's like the wild west, people being murdered every single day and usually by firearm.

[magical thyme]

19. I think Maine may be an outlier of sorts

We went strongly for Obama in '08. While we have some gun violence, I suspect a significant portion of our gun deaths are due to hunting accidents. Not that it makes a difference to the victims, but we get a number of "Dick Cheneys" running around in our woods during hunting season shooting at anything that moves.

[matt819]

21. What would also be interesting

is to see the same kind of distribution of multiple murders per incident.

[slackmaster]

23. The picture is quite different if you look at it on a city level rather than whole states

[CreekDog]

34. what is your interpretation of that picture?

[slackmaster]

36. Easy to answer - Violent crime is concentrated where there is poverty and lack of opportunity

It's far more common in large cities than in other places.

Looking at the map in the OP and concluding anything about the incidence of violence in a particular state is simplistic. Look at California - Modest crime rate overall, but very high in a few specific areas like Richmond, some other Bay Area cities, and the Los Angeles area. Most of the state is relatively crime-free.

Likewise for Michigan and Illinois - Crime concentrated in a small number of dense urban areas.

[ieoeja]

42. 57% of homicides in cities. 82% of people in cities.

Rural homicide rates are higher. Your graphic shows how large cities compare to one another. Not how they compare to the rural area.

As someone who grew up on a farm and now live in Chicago, this does not surprise me in the least.

Farming is, of course, a violent activity. 99% of the time I shrug at the "animal cruelty" film. Yes, it looks ugly when you kill an animal. Yes, it looks even uglier when you butcher it. Yes, we used violence to sometimes move animals around. You know why?

When I said, "okay, hogs, everybody in the back of the truck," not one of those fuckers did what they were supposed to.

The individuality and obversely military culture in rural areas there is a certain violent tension in the air.

Conversely, I go out of my way to avoid confrontations in the city under circumstances that I do *not* when "down home". If I toss some asshole out the door down home, that is the end of it. I do that here, I'm getting a visit from the cops. So I am a whole lot more peaceful (though not more relaxed) in the city.

[Progressive dog]

26. Wow, so mental illness is negatively correlated with gun deaths

And Texas didn't place first. Keep trying Rick.

[turtlerescue1]

27. First question is:

WHY isn't this a priority to the National group of Chamber of Commerce?

[4th law of robotics]

37. BAN POOR PEOPLE!

They are a clear threat to our health and safety.

[Blue_In_AK]

38. These charts shows firearms deaths/injuries, right,

but not necessarily murders. I would imagine that in some relatively rural states like Alaska where guns are more prevalent for hunting/protection against wildlife, there might be a fair number of accidental shootings included in our statistic. I know that this household is in a distinct minority in Alaska in that we own no firearms. Many people won't go out in the wilderness or even down to the Kenai to fish without packing a gun in case of a grizzly encounter. I personally have never felt the need, but I understand the impulse.

[MichiganVote]

45. Looks to me like Louisiana is abot due for a big problem.

[CreekDog]

46. kick