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Robyn66

(1,675 posts)
Thu Jul 19, 2012, 09:42 PM Jul 2012

Todays polls?

Please forgive me if this has been discussed today. I was unfortunately watching Morning Joe for the 5 minutes I can stand and these polls came up that said the Presidents approval numbers have gone way down and Romney's have gone up. What does that even mean? How stupid are the people in this country that they approve of romney more than President Obama?

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Todays polls? (Original Post) Robyn66 Jul 2012 OP
Just one poll and it seems to be an outlier Motown_Johnny Jul 2012 #1
Nate Silver did a good analysis on today's polls Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2012 #4
There's a new Faux News poll with Obama +4 RedStateLiberal Jul 2012 #2
I suggest finding the actual CBS poll SoutherDem Jul 2012 #3
 

Motown_Johnny

(22,308 posts)
1. Just one poll and it seems to be an outlier
Thu Jul 19, 2012, 09:51 PM
Jul 2012

I wouldn't sweat it yet.

If the election is a foregone conclusion then they have nothing to talk about.


 

Laura PourMeADrink

(42,770 posts)
4. Nate Silver did a good analysis on today's polls
Thu Jul 19, 2012, 11:20 PM
Jul 2012
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/19/july-18-new-polls-but-little-change-in-horse-race/

All of this is a long-winded way of saying that none of the polls out on Wednesday night ought to have changed your impression of the presidential race much. The New York Times/CBS News poll showed a fairly good top-line number for Mr. Romney. But The Times/CBS News has generally shown more favorable results for Mr. Romney (and less favorable ones for Mr. Obama) than the polling average.

RedStateLiberal

(1,374 posts)
2. There's a new Faux News poll with Obama +4
Thu Jul 19, 2012, 10:05 PM
Jul 2012

I think they're all useless no matter who is ahead but that should make you feel better.

SoutherDem

(2,307 posts)
3. I suggest finding the actual CBS poll
Thu Jul 19, 2012, 11:14 PM
Jul 2012

I reviewed it today, some of the results don't seem to make sense. They didn't not release the demographics, associated with the poll. As someone replied it is or should be considered an outlier. I feel the population surveyed was not a good representation of the current electorate or at least without some additional information I do not trust it.

It is a little early to sweat over polls. Until the olympics and conventions are over they are more or less useless. Plus, the best place to be would be 1 or 2 points behind. This gives a sense of urgency. Fox who is known to have right leaning polls all at once are starting to lean left. They either figured out how to conduct a poll or they want them to show Romney behind to energize the base.

IMHO

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