Will Mueller go to Jared?

[QED]

Interesting thread from Seth Abramson. He thinks Manafort's case is harder to prove than the others.

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FWIW, all the backchannel buzz—and what clues we have—suggest (a) a Flynn flip and indictment, (b) Jared is closer to arrest than we think.

2/ Certainly, the insane response to yesterday's news from Gorka, Trump, Hannity and Stone suggests more than Manafort and financial crimes.

3/ That said, we have to be very cautious—as Manafort is the only person who has been *told* by Mueller's agents that he *will* be indicted.

4/ Understand a Flynn indictment *doesn't* mean he *hasn't* flipped—flipped persons *must* be indicted if their deal involves a conviction.

5/ *If* Flynn's indictment was sealed partly because he's flipped, the two men most imperiled by his indictment are a) Jared, and b) Trump.

6/ But Jared would be arrested first—as he can be charged/prosecuted. Trump can *maybe* be indicted but can't be prosecuted pre-impeachment.

7/ Right now, the "indictment likelihood ranking" for this Monday is: Manafort and Flynn tied for first, and Jared and Page tied for third.

8/ We don't know if we have multiple defendants. But if Mueller is ready on any defendant—except Trump—we should expect they were indicted.

9/ I want to emphasize: "buzz" isn't news. But we do have multiple public cues (Woolsey and Boente) Flynn has been indicted and/or flipped.

10/ And if Flynn has been indicted and/or flipped, the *most* immediately imperiled person is Jared Kushner. Manafort is a harder case.

11/ Manafort's alleged financial crimes are a) more complex than anything else, and b) only indirectly Russia-related, so they're different.

12/ IOW Mueller gets far more leverage and job security from a Flynn, Kushner, Page, Sater, Cohen, or Papadopoulos indictment than Manafort.

13/ But Manafort is the only man known to have been informed of future indictment, so he's tied for first in "most likely first indictment."

14/ A big part of this is, "Who's most likely to flip?" Flynn is most likely, followed by Manafort. Then—distantly—Page and Kushner.

15/ Flynn is most likely, as he already offered—Manafort because he's venal. Page is an ideologue—Kushner has "rogues' honor" in his family.

[underpants]

1. Thanks for the work on this

I know it's a pain going back and forth

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10029760613

Will come back to kick this later

Meanwhile a short one. This cracked me up this morning

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10029760642

[QED]

3. I loved the bingo card.

And also the one with pics of those from Trumpland who might be in Mueller's sight.

[H2O Man]

2. Recommended.

Very interesting. Thank you.

[Not Ruth]

4. We know the charges against Manafort, financial, he has been under surveillance for a long time

So has Trump.

Those are the top two.

Page and Jared are relatively new to this, what are their charges?

[QED]

5. I think both for violating FEC rules

for accepting something of value from a foreign entity. And Jared for lying on forms, repeatedly.

[luvtheGWN]

9. Whatever the charges will be, one can only hope that

they are dire enough and easily enough explained to the public at large (meaning the deplorables, who obviously are several bricks short of a load).

[lindysalsagal]

6. Photo released of "the ring"

[QED]

7. Yep!

[LiberalLovinLug]

8. Ivanka was venerated as some kind of pure innocent child, the "good" one

Who could help lean on her father to have a more open mind towards the issues.

Its pretty clear now that she was complicit along with her husband all along. She never wanted anything different. Sure she loved being the darling of the media for awhile, playing the role of the innocent blushing daughter bravely defending her off-colour locker room dad as someone who is actually a good man and good father underneath it all. But now we see that the reason she couldn't polish the turd successfully is because she and her hubby are massive turds themselves. So deep in the toilet bowl that they can't get out either.

[NightWatcher]

10. Plus a Flynn indictment pulls Sessions into the stew

He's the one (Sessions) that I want tossed out on his elfin ass.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2017/03/02/how-do-jeff-sessions-michael-flynn-compare-russia/98631228/

[monmouth4]

11. You make an excellent point and I would love to see him gone..nt

[QED]

12. Wow. I didn't think about that.

I'd love to see the lying elf indicted.