As Rachel would say, someone please talk me down! Bain attacks backfiring?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

What's going on here? I'm seeing reports that Obama/Democrats' attack ads on Bain are not having the desired impact. Indeed, it looks like Romney is unscathed in the national polls or even in some states. It seems that in swing states, it was having an impact initially, but that impact is now nearly nonexistent.

What's going on here? Someone talk me off the ledge. Are people just not getting it? Are they simply not paying attention? Or, do they view Obama's attacks as disingenuous?

Talk. Me. Down.

[Motown_Johnny]

1. please link to where you are seeing this

I don't buy it. They are hurting him. Believe it.

[immoderate]

2. They forgot! Yes... already!

But if Obama is ready, there will be another... and another...


--imm

[GarroHorus]

3. Not a single poll released to date was taken AFTER the Bain/tax return attacks went into full push.

Relax, there's no data to support what you are saying.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

7. See post #5. I hope you're right. :)

[ProSense]

16. Not only that.

"Not a single poll released to date was taken AFTER the Bain/tax return attacks went into full push."

...the only poll that shows Romney with a one-point lead is the NYT poll, and that's down two points from the last NYT poll.

Even Fox has Obama ahead.

As you said, the poll periods ended Monday, barely enough time for people who were away the weekend to digest all the information coming out.

Romney's claim that the tax returns would be politically damaging were made late yesterday and today, and a lot more information has surfaced. It will only get worse.

[GarroHorus]

19. Plus, only 942 out of 1089 people polled are even REGISTERED TO VOTE!

The poll is, by design, a "horse race poll" with no other purpose than to show the race as very close in order to gin up ratings.

[WI_DEM]

41. Not true. Most polls released yesterday were completed on the 16th or 17th

but that doesn't mean that it won't have impact but as long as the job market is weak, Obama is going to have a hard time.

[GarroHorus]

48. And all of them were started before the current kerfluffle n/t

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

55. Again, I hope you're right, but just today...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/19/mitt-romney-virginia_n_1685486.html

We're working our asses off in VA and yet today it's close. Now, again, I'm fully aware that these polls are volatile, but still...

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

4. Are you kidding? Romney will die the death of a thousand cuts.

And it's happening: http://www.democraticunderground.com/125157931

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

13. Praying this continues...

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

5. For instance...

Exhibit A:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/18/obama-approval-rating-economy_n_1684611.html

Exhibit B:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002971745

[GarroHorus]

15. The poll cited in both instances was take July 11-16

On top of that, more than 13% of those polled are not even registered to vote.

[WI_DEM]

42. the job market is weak so Obama's approval on economy is not going to improve

and the unemployment claims reports out today will not help either. Sorry, I can't sugar coat it but Obama is either going to win by a narrow margin or lose by a narrow margin. In the end it will be the economy not Romney's taxes that will decide the election.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

56. I agree with this; therefore I wonder if the Obama campaign is using resources wisely.

In the beginning the Bain issue seemed to have some traction, but these polls don't bear that out. And it's the economy. It's always the economy!

[spanone]

6. what polls?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

9. Post #5.

[demwing]

27. That's ONE poll

One

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

57. Here's another just out today, which hits me hard because we've been working our asses

off in VA:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/19/mitt-romney-virginia_n_1685486.html

[Enrique]

8. the issue is not a silver bullet

expecting a couple of ads to have an immediate nationwide impact in the polls is expecting too much.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

11. I didn't say immediate. It has now been a few weeks. We know that the ads did have an initial impact

in the swing states a few weeks ago. Now, not so much. Again, I hope you're right and I'm wrong.

[Enrique]

51. has it really been a few weeks?

I thought it's been just a week or so.

[nolabear]

10. I sure haven't seen it. It's not novel after a few days but I think it's having an effect.

And something has to change. He has to either show something or the doubts pile up.

[pnwmom]

12. Before the Bain info came out, the media was about to focus on unemployment.

Even if Obama just stays even, he's better off keeping the focus on Romney and his deficiencies.

[Lint Head]

14. This is only the beginning.

The debate will be Mitt's doom if he makes it past the convention.

[RedStateLiberal]

17. RCP Average of polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

This is the one I check. There are polls from this week with mixed results. Fox News has Obama by +4!

Polls really don't matter much so far from election day IMHO but it's interesting to see the trends. I still don't put a lot of faith in any of them.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

21. I typically don't care about national polls as much as I care about the state polls, but I was taken

aback by the fact that national polls haven't seemed to budge. (National polls are a snapshot in time.)

I hear what you're saying, though.

Feeling a bit better, just looking at trends. And yes, Real Clear Politics is an excellent resource. Thanks!

[RedStateLiberal]

25. YW + This might make you feel better.

I saw an interesting theory from someone on DU that if Obama is way ahead in the polls come election time, then that might encourage more turnout from the Repub base. They'll be motivated to get off their ass to vote if it's obvious Obama will win in a landslide and also Dems might be complacent and think it's in the bag. Of course the opposite also might be true. If Rmoney is way ahead in the polls, those who can't stand Mitt would be encouraged to get out and vote to defeat him. So, a close race in the polls might not be a bad thing, and a lead by Romney may not be a bad thing. I think this is just a theory so I know I'd feel a lot better if Obama had a small lead going into election day.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

30. I really agree with this. I'm still hearing too many Democrats being complacent and not working.

I canvassed in VA last week, and the most enthusiastic Obama supporters that I came across were reluctant to get involved, too convinced that Obama will win. It took some prodding to convince them that they shouldn't just vote; they need to get their family, friends, anyone they know who are supporters to get out and work. I'm in Maryland, but I'll be in VA and PA nearly every weekend up until Election Day and on the day itself.

[RedStateLiberal]

37. Thank you for doing the ground work!

I wish I could do the same but I'm hundreds of miles from the nearest swing state and feel I'd be wasting time here in wingnut Alabama. You could always point out to the reluctant ones that the polls are tight to motivate them. Keep up the good work!

[Zalatix]

38. This, 1000%.

We can't let our side become complacent. That's how 2010 happened.

[Honeycombe8]

18. That's not good. Bummer. nt

[OverseaVisitor]

20. Gee

The poll is a tool to shape perception.
And by now everyone here should know how the game rules are.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

22. Sure, but you just said it: Polls shape perception. That perception often becomes reality.

Again, I hope you're right and I'm wrong. I'm feeling better, though.

[OverseaVisitor]

52. The reality is the vote

COUNTING.

No sane human being will vote against them self, ok maybe 10% insane.

If the poll say 75% support Obama then how can Mitt win, hence you need to build up a close fight environment.
Look at the crowd, look at the republican vote switch
If trend say from own eyes things are swing to Obama then trust your own finding

[SoCalDem]

23. Pay NO attention to what you read

Media "diggers" LOATHE the self-absorbed nitwit, and they are digging into every little nook & cranny.

the more he tries to hide, the more determined they are.

What we have seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg

[Tx4obama]

24. New Poll from Fox News: Romney vs. Obama --- Obama 45, Romney 41 (Obama +4)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[WI_DEM]

45. this is good, but...

most polls show Obama well below 50 and for an incumbent that is a danger signal.

[alcibiades_mystery]

26. Oh fer Gawd's sake

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

33. Thanks, anyway. :)

[dionysus]

28. oh dear. get the smelling salts.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

31. Come on, D. We typically get along. Cut me a break on this one. :)

[dionysus]

40. i'll pretend i never saw it

[Lex]

29. Really? "I'm seeing reports . . . " REALLY?

Is that like Fox News' tactic -- "some people say . . . "

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

32. Yeah, because I watch Faux News. Really? That was unnecessary, my friend.

[FLyellowdog]

35. I'm with you.

The CBS/NYT poll threw me into a tizzie tonight. Maybe it's time I took a step back. I have to from time to time just to keep my sanity.

[Lex]

39. Link up your "I'm seeing reports that" in the OP.

And, pssssst, it was an analogy.

[demwing]

34. Here's a poll to consider

This is where Obama and McCain ere 4 years ago today, according to the RCP average

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/election_2012_vs_election_2008_four_years_ago_today.html

Obama then = 45.9%
Obama now = 46.5%

Obama is sitting better on the RCP average today than he was 4 years ago. Don't stress.

[FLyellowdog]

36. Thanks. I can always depend on DU to make me feel better. :)

[WI_DEM]

43. I can't talk you down. I don't think we should back down on the Bain attacks either

but the bottom line is that in the midst of all the talk about Bain and Romney's taxes polls came out in NH, Iowa and New Mexico showing that the president's lead has been cut dramatically. Two of the polls were from PPP a pollster I trust. What does it mean? It means that people are concerned about the economy and jobs and Obama is the incumbent and no matter what he will get a certain amount of blame. What Obama needs to do is make the case for a strong jobs program and make sure he adds that the only way we will get it is if we get a Democratic congress. Yes, keep up the outsourcing and attacks on Bain, too. But in the end it's all about JOBS & what the president is going to do to make sure we get more jobs. People need to be assured.

p.s.
as far as the CBS poll, Obama is actually doing better this time than he did in their previous poll in June. He was down by 3 in June and is down by 1 in this poll. Obama gained 3 points while Romney gained 1. So if you go by CBS poll the trend is TOWARDS Obama not away.

[lame54]

44. it's the polls that are disingenuous

[lunatica]

46. It's time to stop blaming people for being stupid when polls are being rigged

We all need to take the blinders off. Polls have been rigged since at least the 2000 elections. So have votes, especially in certain States. And so is the MSM.

Once you see it for what it is then it's not hard to understand.

If you were to take a poll and you wanted it to reflect what you choose then you just lie and tell everyone that the polls reflect what you want them to. And if you're good at it you'll ask questions in such a way that the answers will reflect what you want the poll to reflect.

If you ask, "Do you agree that raising your taxes is fair?" and you answer, "No" then the pollsters can translate that into saying you don't want to raise taxes for the 1%.

[BumRushDaShow]

47. Whenever you see rethugs knee-jerk blurting out racist code talk

and birther/muslim/commie/marxist/socialist nonsense, that's when you know you hit pay dirt with a bullseye.

[randome]

49. Excellent point!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

58. I know that's right!! +1!!

[bemildred]

50. Someone is feeding you bullshit, that is what is going on here. nt

[Hubert Flottz]

53. Some of the "Pollsters" are hard core reich wing flunkies.

They wish Bain wasn't having an impact!

Trusting a poll like the Wall Street Journal is forgetting who owns the WSJ now. Anything having to do with Brother Rupert is a scam, a sham and pure Flim-Flam.

[fredamae]

54. Their response to the Bain issue says its Working

because if it wasn't they wouldn't be responding as "victims" and trying to dismiss the whole thing.

I believe it's very effective because it's the Truth.Secondly-Its MSM-Who are the 5 or 6 people that Own the Message we are "allowed" to receive?
Are these Corporations supporting RW Agenda's for personal profit and gain?
We cannot believe the outlandish diatribe they put "out there"-They "game us" with inferences, loaded questions, half-truths, omission of Facts/information and flat out lies. FEAR.
Think about what they Don't tell us