Last night I bet a dinner to a friend that the GOP Convention will be brokered

[LynneSin]

I think Mitt Romney is damaged goods and since he was never really a favorite of the hard-core right, libertarians and tea baggers, there is going to be a fight for the nomination. Romney may prevail but it's not going to be easy.

What's your thoughts?

[WI_DEM]

1. Not likely. I'm pretty sure Mitt will be the nominee

It's good that we are defining him, of course. But I don't see him dropping out or some 'white knight' coming to the rescue. Despite all of this he continues to be 3-4 points down in most polls. Heck, Carter was 25 points down prior to the Dem convention in 1980 and he was nominated over Kennedy. Ford was 30 points down against Carter in 1976 prior to his convention and they still nominated him over Reagan. Unless Romney totally collapses in the polls or they find something criminal he will be the nominee.

[Gman]

2. For the sake of nothing but drama

I hope you're right. But like we say in Texas, you gotta dance with the one that brung ya.

[Jim__]

3. I think he gets it automatically on the first ballot.

And, even with the success of the Obama campaign over the last 2 weeks, I don't think the polls have moved. The repubs will use carpet-bomb advertising in October and early November; and in the primaries, that was worked wonders for Romney. It's still a fight.

[LynneSin]

4. Problem with me is I don't buy most of the polls

Since the powers to be at the news networks want to make sure this stays a close race.

Close Race = High Ratings = More advertising dollars

[alcibiades_mystery]

5. You're gonna lose

Put a cap on price.

[LynneSin]

6. Remember I didn't say Mitt would lose

I just said someone is going to put up a fight

[WI_DEM]

8. well, Ron Paul will still put up a fight

but he doesn't have nearly enough delegates to cause Mitt any real problems. Other than that I don't see anybody else who will challenge Romney.

[Proud Public Servant]

7. You lost that bet

Delegates are bound by convention rules to vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged on the first ballot. Since Mitt has enough pledged delegates to be nominated on the first ballot, Mitt will be nominated, period.

Also, you don't mean "brokered" convention; you mean "deadlocked" convention. Everybody everywhere seems to confuse these terms, and as a presidential politics nerd it drives me crazy. But that's my problem; I continue to search for a 12-steps group I can join.

[longship]

9. Well, you're probably going to lose that bet.

But making your friend twist and turn is fun. I hope you and your friend enjoy the dinner. You'll likely be paying for it.

[randome]

10. I don't see the brokered convention happening.

Look who composed this year's crop of candidates: Romney, Gingrich, Perry, Ryan, Bachmann. None of them has a chance of being elected. None.

If the GOP had alternatives, they would have run them as candidates. No one is coming to rescue them from the tower they have built around themselves.

[arbusto_baboso]

11. No, Mitt has already bought his nomination, fair and square.

That's how it works for Republicans.

[Nye Bevan]

12. Please. Could we stop with this nonsense? Even now, Romney has about a 40% chance of winning,

according to Intrade. Any other candidate will not improve on this significantly. There aren't exactly many superstars in the GOP and Romney, while far from perfect, is about as good as they are going to get.

What the GOP needs to win is something like gas at $6, another banking crisis, or significantly increased unemployment, between now and November. The candidate is pretty much irrelevant.