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Yep we're saturated but Jose Headed Towards New England; 96L a Concern for Eastern Caribbean
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/jose-headed-towards-new-england-96l-concern-eastern-caribbean<snip>
Track forecast for Jose
A high-pressure system building in to the northeast of Jose will steer the storm to the northwest and then north over the weekend, putting Jose a few hundred miles east of North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Monday, then close to the coast of southeast Massachusetts on Wednesday. The large waves from the storm will be capable of causing high surf and considerable beach erosion along the shores of the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts during this period. Jose’s fate beyond Wednesday is uncertain, with some models predicting a rapid motion to the east-northeast, out to sea, and other models predicting that Jose will get trapped in an area of weak steering currents, wandering in the waters between North Carolina and Massachusetts for multiple days.
96L
Our three top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the European, GFS, and UKMET—have been predicting development of 96L over multiple runs, with Sunday being the preferred day of development into a tropical depression. 96L will begin affecting the Lesser Antilles Islands on Monday. After that, the course of the system is less certain, as the models have differences in their predictions for the forward speed of 96L. The European and GFS models predict a threat to Puerto Rico by Tuesday and the Dominican Republic by Wednesday, while the UKMET model predicts that 96L will move very slowly through the northern Lesser Antilles on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. This model has not been performing as well as the GFS and European model with this system, and a more rapid motion of 96L to the Dominican Republic by Wednesday is a more likely solution.
Beyond Wednesday, the path of 96L will depend in part upon what Jose is up to. If Jose is still wandering off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast, this will create a weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering 96L to the west-northwest, and 96L will turn more toward the northwest. If Jose is out of the picture, the ridge could keep 96L rolling west-northwestward. In either case, it is possible that 96L will approach the U.S. East Coast more than a week from now. A strong autumn-like upper-level trough will be moving across the western and central U.S. late next week. This will tend to pump up a ridge toward the northeast U.S. and northwest Atlantic, which could end up blocking 96L from moving out to sea (and could even affect Jose).
Intensity forecast for 96L
The 12Z Friday run of the SHIPS model predicted that 96L would have very favorable conditions for development over the next five days, with wind shear low to moderate, very warm SSTs near 29 – 29.5°C (84 - 85°F), and high relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere. These conditions should allow for steady strengthening of 96L once it organizes into a tropical depression. The next two names on the list of Atlantic storms are Lee and Maria.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
The experts appear concerned with what is likely to be Marie in a day or so. Those poor islands can't take another hit. Lee (the current TD) will be a fish storm.
22 replies
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If 96L becomes a TS before TS fourteen becomes Lee, then all bets are off. I'm assuming that 96L becomes Marie and not Lee 
not likely to hit any land (OTS)
Selfish on my part, but headed there in a couple of weeks...
