As Germans prepare to vote, a mystery grows: Where are the Russians?

[DonViejo]

By Griff Witte September 10 at 7:19 PM

BERLIN — In 2015, suspected Russian hackers broke into the computer networks of the German Parliament and made off with a mother lode of data — 16 gigabytes, enough to account for a million or more emails.

Ever since, German politicians have been watching nervously for the fruits of that hack to be revealed, and for possible embarrassment and scandal to follow. Many warily eyed September 2017 — the date of the next German election — as the likely window for Russian meddling to once again rattle the foundations of a Western democracy. But with the vote only two weeks away — and with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s European nemesis, Chancellor Angela Merkel, seemingly on track for a comfortable win — the hacked emails haven’t materialized.

Nor have Russian-linked propaganda networks churned into overdrive with disinformation campaigns. Even Kremlin-orchestrated bots — blamed for the viral spread of fake news in last year’s U.S. presidential campaign — have been conspicuously silent.

The apparent absence of a robust Russian campaign to sabotage the German vote has become a mystery among officials and experts who had warned of a likely onslaught.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as-germans-prepare-to-vote-a-mystery-grows-where-are-the-russians/2017/09/10/07d47f54-9257-11e7-8482-8dc9a7af29f9_story.html

[DetlefK]

1. The explanation is simple: None of the candidates are to Russia's liking

The german election will basically be like the Democratic primary:

Angela Merkel, the establishment-choice, conservative by name but slightly more left than her own party. Currently leading with 40% of the popular vote.

Runner-up is Martin Schulz, a Social-Democrat with decades of experience in foreign-policy and international diplomacy. He's at 25%.

And the small parties:
- Greens ~10-15%
- Left ~10-15%
- Free Democrats ~10-15%
- AfD ~10-15%

The only parties that fit into the russian anti-american narrative are the Left (of whom some voters can be caught over to the Alt-Left) and the AfD (which is basically Germany's Alt-Right-party).




There simply is nobody the Russians could steal the election for. The Left is too occupied with domestic issues and the AfD are basically "Neonazis with a nice face".

Even if the Russians somehow manage to damage Merkel... Martin Schulz is a staunch fighter for the european idea and a strong Europe is the last thing Russia wants.

[Ezior]

2. German politicians are already quite Russia-friendly

So maybe no leaks needed to influence the election (or maybe some Kompromat was stolen and already used successfully to influence politicians).

- CDU, center right party (Merkel party) has some doubts about Russia and wants to limit Putin's influence, but they do want to build the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline to increase Russian market share for natural gas used in Germany from ~40% to ~%60.
- CSU, sister party of CDU for Bavaria, has Horst Seehofer as their leader. Horst Seehofer voiced support for Putin (and Trump) repeatedly, he loves to visit Moscow, and probably thinks of himself as "King of Bavaria".
- SPD (center-left) loudly complained about US Russia sanctions because they might prevent the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Sigmal Gabriel, former leader of the SPD, asked Putin for an autograph. Schroeder is Putin's BFF and also from SPD. They say we need Russian natural gas and shouldn't alienate Putin too much, although they don't like the Ukraine situation.
- FDP (socially liberal, but right-wing economically) lost its mind and their leader basically demands that we drop sanctions and accept that Crimea is now a part of Russia and there is nothing we can do about it. So instead of hurting ourselves economically, we should get right back to business with Russia!
- Linke (far-left) just loves Maduro, Putin, etc... Basically they still think of Putin as a communist leader, or something. They can be quite anti-American ("imperialists, wars for oil, drones in Afghanistan, leave NATO now!" ) because they (correctly) see the USA as pretty far to the right politically, so they (stupidly) love Russia as the obvious enemy of the US.
- AFD (very far right) loves Putin because Putin loves far-right European parties who hate Muslims and the EU. They visited him, he supports them through Sputnik, RT Deutsch, and maybe even financially (they get some money out of Switzerland and nobody knows where it's coming from).
- Grüne (left-green) is the notable exception. They want to stop Nord Stream 2 pipeline planning, and they want sanctions on Russia because of Ukraine and election influence.

So if anything Putin could release some dirt on the green party. Either he has no dirt on them, or he saw their low poll numbers and decided that it's too risky and not worth it.