Bullshit! Harvey Is NOT Just A 1000 Year Event. It Is The New Normal.

[TheMastersNemesis]

Extreme storms have been going off all summer and not just in the US. It is happening all over the planet. And the extremes run from extreme rain and storm to extreme heat. Some areas of Asia and Middle East are heading to uninhabitability.

At some point we will go to category 6 on hurricanes and category 6 on tornadoes. We have just seen a new color on the rain map with Harvey. Look at all the tornadoes that are up to a mile wide and the one that was 2 miles wides just a couple of years ago.

[democratisphere]

1. So true.

The new normal will empty our wallets.

[L. Coyote]

21. Why Houston isn't the only U.S. community ripe for disaster

Link to tweet

[PearliePoo2]

2. Irma will soon be a hurricane. Where it makes landfall, who knows.

How many back to back hits can a region/city take before they can't ever recover? We may find out.

[Warpy]

3. Often storms that develop that far out end up going out to sea

Unfortunately, it looks like she's going southwest instead of turning north. She might bump along the coast of Venezuela and fizzle out.

Or she might follow a track similar to Harvey.

[bluepen]

4. Latest Irma models as of one hour ago.

[Igel]

7. The models just play the odds.

They're often wrong in small ways. They vary in how they assess the odds.

A small error early on could lead it on a completely different course, and that small error might deal with some change in ocean currents (so Harvey was made worse by a bit of the Gulf loop that broke off and gyred westward)

[B2G]

10. And that doesn't include all of the models. nt

[bluepen]

15. It doesn't include either of the ensemble models.

They're the least reliable this far out. It'll show the cluster later.

[bluepen]

17. Of course. That's why we don't just run one model

one time.

[misanthrope]

12. That is certainly better than the models from just 12 hours ago

I keep an eye on Jeff Masters' Weather Underground blog and the concern in his posting for the last 24 hours has been detectable. While these Cape Verde storms normally end up at sea, the system anticipated to steer Irma west-southwest has been an issue.

[B2G]

5. Or she might do something in between.

To soon to say, but the latest Euro clips the keys and takes it up into the eastern gulf. Not buying that yet but I doubt she's going to just "fizzle out".

[Warpy]

13. Nor do I. She's already a cat 2

and there don't seem to be any major weather systems on the way to rip off the upper circulation. Everything seems to be stalled.

[B2G]

16. Shear will be low, water temps high.

Not a good combo. The key to her going out to sea will be the strength of the ridge that will build in IMO. The stronger the ridge, the further west she'll go and the greater the risk to CONUS. And troughs will come into play.

But she's only going to strengthen. If, god forbid, she gets near land, pray for a timely EWRC.

[Warpy]

23. Wherever she goes, it's going to suck for a lot of people.

People asked me when I inherited enough to live on why I didn't sell this little slum house and move to a shining tower on a warm island overlooking the ocean. THIS is why. Water always wins.

[bluepen]

26. I've lived on the coast of SC and FL my whole life.

Worth every second, wouldn't trade it for anything.

But people like what they like.

[Warpy]

28. I can see the southern Rockies out of my kitchen window

and the real estate is a lot cheaper than it was back in Boston.

[bluepen]

6. It's already a hurricane.

Cat 2. Hope people don't freak out without looking at the available data.

Latest models:

[B2G]

8. Does that include the latest Euro run?

Doesn't look like it. The GFS seems to be way over playing the trough.

[bluepen]

18. No. See 15.

[B2G]

20. Just saw that

The Euro did the best job with Harvey and it's last run took it into the eastern Gulf. To your point though, it's way too far out for that to be meaningful.

Just watching closely for now. My daughter is right on the Carolina coast.

[bluepen]

22. Which Carolina?

I'm in Charleston, SC.

NC coast gets hit more than we do because of how the coast curves.

[B2G]

25. Wilmington. Nt

[bluepen]

27. Nice beaches up that way.

Definitely worth monitoring in that area, especially.

[B2G]

30. Guessing you won't like this.

Link to tweet

[bluepen]

33. Not concerned at all, at this point.

Just monitoring.

Plus, a storm in that position at the end of the model doesn't bother me until I see a definitely move to the west. So many turn north. Then that curve in the coastline I mentioned earlier comes into play.

[B2G]

37. Same.

I'll start taking the runs seriously next week. To much time and guesswork until then. Hoping for a fish but Bermuda could take a devastating hit..

[muntrv]

9. It's a 100 MONTH event now.

[B2G]

11. How many years has it been since our last major

Hit the CONUS?

[bluepen]

29. Pretty sure it was Wilma, Oct. 2005.

[B2G]

35. Yep. 12 years ago.

We've been incredibly lucky. This season was only a matter of time.

The only thing that was unusual about Harvey was the lack of any steering to prevent a stall. Not the storm itself.

[bluepen]

36. Absolutely agree.

Had there just been some steering currents, we wouldn't be seeing anywhere near the damage.

[zipplewrath]

14. Semantics

What you're saying is the past is not prologue here. That the frequency and probability of these has increased due to changes in our atmosphere.

The "1000 year Event" language is more of an actuarial expression.

I agree that we need to understand that the actuaries probably don't consider this a 1000 year event anymore.

[bluepen]

19. It's as unscientific as "superstorm."

[zipplewrath]

32. Technical language in a "laymen" context.

Technical language is often misused by the general public and it results in misunderstanding. The media is often the prime offender here in that they don't understand the words they are using.

[bluepen]

34. So true. I got sick of hearing "superstorm"

and "Frankenstorm" nonsense.

[zipplewrath]

38. Power and energy

I hear those two words used both interchangeably, and occasionally switched in definition.
Deceleration is not understood to be a subset, not the opposite, of acceleration.
Energy has mass.
Stiffness is not the same thing as strength.
Most things aren't "fuels" they are merely energy storage mediums (basically batteries).
Mass and weight are two different things.
Most things aren't "theories", they are hypotheses.
Experiments never "prove" anything.
You can't fool anyone that understands statistics, with statistics.
Newton wasn't "wrong" he was inaccurate. (by the way, he was "right". He wrote F = dmv/dt. It's just that he and everyone else thought m was a constant.)

[B2G]

39. Who knew Sheldon Cooper posts here?

[Achilleaze]

24. Thanks republicans

republicans bear a mighty measure of blame for all the climate lies they have told for the last 25 years

[hunter]

31. Within a few years or less, maybe within a few weeks or months, there will be worse shit.

We humans, our love of fossil fuels, did this to ourselves.