The Problem With Evacuating A Major City

[titaniumsalute]

I lived in FL for 7 years (Palm Beach County.) I never had to evacuate but we certainly got close a few times. Worst was when a Cat 3 was headed our way but turned north a day or so out.

If you've ever driven in South Florida (Palm Beach, Ft Lauderdale, Miami) or in Houston...or in DC, etc. you know that the traffic on a normal day is nearly a standstill especially between about 7am and 7pm. Just imagine the traffic at a standstill in a major evacuation.

The problem is even with the amazing NOAA forecasting these storms are volatile, unpredictable, etc. Harvey was a Tropical Storm heading to be a Cat 1 maybe. Within 36 hours it increased in strength to a Cat 4. That is extremely dramatic. I wouldn't have evacuated in a Cat 1 or 2 but would for a 3+ storm. You can't tell 6 million people within 24 hours of a storm to evacuate. The roads would have been 100% clogged and hundreds could have easily died in flooded streets in Houston. It simply wasn't feasible.

[Wounded Bear]

1. Cat level was never really a worry for Harvey...

It was always about the amount of rain it carried.

And yeah, no major urban area is very amenable to an organized evacuation. Too many people, too few routes outa Dodge.

[titaniumsalute]

2. Well Cat level is a worry...mostly for storm surge

Those within a mile or two of the coasts for the surge is very concerning. That ended up not being the problem but the rain certainly did. And most people think the hurricane winds do damage (which it does some) but really the offshoot tornadoes are what do more wind damage then anything.

[global1]

3. The Mayor Of Houston Made A Good Call.....

he saved a lot of lives of the people of his city.

[Warpy]

4. Thinking about evacuating cities needs to be changed

In any potential flood, evacuation has to be vertical, not lateral. IOW, open up high rise buildings, allow people to camp in hallways with blankets, pillows, and their water supply. Interior hallways in high rises are the safest places to be in hurricanes, floods, and tsunamis.

Owners will scream about the riffraff and claim they were looted, etc, etc. However, in a survival situation, this is what they need to do.

Expecting millions of people to evacuate cities on roads that are choked with cars on good days is unrealistic. In hurricane prone areas, vertical evacuation needs to be implemented.

[titaniumsalute]

5. I agree. Wasted real estate during the time of a crisis

Most of the buildings can withstand MAJOR wind damage and stay standing strong.

[Warpy]

7. They need to think about it NOW

and start to assign people who live in flood prone areas buildings and floors.

[Sgent]

11. Not so sure about this

but it deserves discussion.

A LOT of people used to evacuate vertically in New Orleans, and during Katrina it was an absolute hellhole.

Don't get me wrong, people in flood prone areas or near the coast need to evacuate, period. That said, we need some real thinking about larger metropolitan areas. Better flood protection, building codes, infrastructure, etc. is more workable than evacuating 6m people.

[Warpy]

13. It was a hellhole because it was so totally botched by DHS

Chertoff had rewritten the disaster manuals so they all reflected biological warfare or a dirty bomb. NOLA was cordoned off, shipments of water and things like diesel for hospital generators couldn't get in, no one was allowed to leave, and rescue crews from regional states (including mine) were left sitting on the tarmac outside town for 5 days. They even kicked out the locals with boats who'd been pulling people off rooftops and taking them to safety. It was so insane that even Pox News pointed out some of the sheer idiocy.

It was a total clusterfuck and the real shame of it is that the press covered a lot of it up. Chertoff and his crew just skated away.

In any case, the evacuation wasn't so much vertical as it was to a sports arena on higher ground, with facilities that were overwhelmed the first day. Had people evacuated vertically to high rises, chances are the pressure would have been taken off the arena enough for things to function, barely. Sanitary facilities would still have been a mess, but they always are in a disaster.

Lateral evacuation of big cities does not work. And I doubt we'd get the will in this country to do what Italy is doing, offering large lump sum payments to anyone willing to move out of Naples now, before Vesuvius blows the next time. They have admitted that few will be evacuated. They'll just be sitting in gridlock when the pyroclastic flows cook them.

[dalton99a]

6. Houston tried it last time

http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Hurricane-Rita-anxiety-leads-to-hellish-fatal-6521994.php

How Hurricane Rita anxiety led to the worst gridlock in Houston history
Matt Levin | Updated 6:05 pm, Friday, August 25, 2017

The worst traffic jam in Houston history began 10 years ago today. For some, the gridlock wouldn't end until a full 24 hours later.

Hurricane Katrina had devastated the U.S. only a few weeks earlier. And with Hurricane Rita – documented as the strongest Gulf storm on record – on track to bash East Texas, Houstonians heeded the call to evacuate. That’s the moment residents remember best a decade later.

[FLPanhandle]

8. People complaining about the lack of evacuation just aren't thinking it through

6+ million people in the Houston area.

30,000 in shelters

Over 99% of the population is fine by staying put.

[TexasBushwhacker]

10. Exactly

Even if 100K end up in shelters, that is 4% of Houston and 1.5% of the greater Houston area.

They are showing a subdivision north of Houston (Ponderosa Forest) that is horribly flooded, entire first floors flooded. However, that area flooded on Memorial Day and Tax Day last year, so it shouldn't have been unexpected. These are nice, middle to upper middle class homes, so I imagine most evacuated of their own accord.

[TexasBushwhacker]

9. I guarantee, anyone who evacuates and comes home

to a dry home will bitch about it. Now multiply that by a million or so.

[gratuitous]

12. If you're not living in Houston

Please pay attention when your local authorities are staging a natural disaster training. Learn about what you should have on hand in case of an emergency. Organize your household for a 24-hour, 12-hour, 3-hour, and right fucking now evacuation order. Getting a survival kit together, when spread out over a few months, isn't all that expensive. Remember that during an emergency everyone's going to want to make cell phone calls, and while your loved ones will appreciate hearing your voice, texts (no photos) take up a lot less bandwidth.

For those not in the disaster area, this is your chance to learn from the incredible misfortune being visited on these people. Next time around, it could be you. What steps will you take to lessen the burden on first responders?