Harvey warnings coming up at 11.00am - heading for South East Texas

[malaise]

It will then stall and create serious flooding all the way back to Louisiana.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images, reconnaissance data and surface observations
indicate that the remmants of Harvey are close to redeveloping into
a tropical depression over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico about 150
miles west of Merida, Mexico. Advisories will likely be re-initiated
at 10 am CDT on this system. The low is forecast to move to the
northwest at about 10 mph across the western Gulf of Mexico,
possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf coast late Friday. This
system is likely to slow down once it reaches the coast, increasing
the threat of a prolonged period of heavy rainfall and flooding
across portions of Texas and Louisiana into early next week. Harvey
could also produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force
winds along portions of the Texas coast later this week, and
Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required later today
for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and
southwestern Louisiana. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system and refer to products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

[malaise]

1. Jim Cantore is very worried about the flooding that will come

with a stalled Harvey. Please pay attention.

[Dustlawyer]

2. Leaving to buy gas cans, gas, LP gas, charcoal, water...

Not again!

Direct hits from Rita and Ike have left us with super high Windstorm insurance and a LOT fewer trees!

[malaise]

3. Stay safe and stay away from the water

[Paladin]

6. Yeah, get to the grocery store ASAP.....

....before all that's left on the shelves are the anchovies.

(And if I were in your neighborhood, those anchovies might be disappearing.)

[Dustlawyer]

7. Thanks Malaise and Paladin!

Anchovies are already well stocked at my house!

We are mostly ready at all times, but water and gas are two things you can never have enough of. Our power was out for 6 weeks after Rita because all of the power company trucks were still dealing with Katrina, as were the insurance adjusters, tree companies, FEMA...

[malaise]

8. Looks like Tropical Storm all the way

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145443_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[Dustlawyer]

10. Puts us on the dirty side. I knew I should have put that lift kit on my truck! Dang!

Thanks for the info!

[Luz]

4. We need the rain down here, but only need a little.

I sincerely hope it pushes this heat out of south texas, its miserable here.

[malaise]

5. Isn't that the truth?

We all need the rain but not the floods

[Baclava]

9. Soon-To-Be Tropical Storm Could Bring 15 Inches of Rain to Parts of Texas Coast

Forecasters with the National Weather Service expect the storm will hit between Corpus Christi and Houston on Friday night or Saturday morning.



http://www.houstonpress.com/news/new-tropical-storm-could-pose-threat-to-houston-this-weekend-9724543

[malaise]

11. Texas on Hurricane watch - Jeff Masters

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-watch-texas-tropical-depression-harvey-regenerates
<snip>
A Hurricane Watch for Texas as Tropical Depression Harvey Regenerates

Dr. Jeff Masters · August 23, 2017, 3:36 PM

A Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Watch is posted for much of the coast of Texas, as Tropical Depression Harvey treks northwestwards at 9 mph over the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane found that Harvey had reorganized into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday morning, with a large, disorganized closed surface circulation and top winds to 35 mph. Harvey is expected to intensify into a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane that will bring dangerous flooding rains in excess of 10” to Texas late this week. This Hurricane Watch is the first for any part of Texas since Hurricane Ike in 2008. Wednesday also marks the first time the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued an operational Storm Surge Watch. The product was not yet official in 2016, when prototype storm surge watch and warning graphics were produced for Hurricane Matthew along the southeast U.S. coast.

Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning were favorable to very favorable for intensification. Satellite images showed that Harvey was slowly developing, with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that was growing in areal coverage and organizing into low-level spiral bands. These thunderstorms were not very intense yet, with cloud tops that were relatively warm, indicating that they did not extend high into the atmosphere. There was some dry air on the west side of Harvey, but the storm was beginning to wrap spiral bands laden with moisture into this area, which should allow the storm to wall itself off from any dry air intrusions. High cirrus clouds streaming to the north and northeast of the center showed the presence of a respectable upper-level outflow channel, which was ventilating the storm and helping intensification. Wind shear was light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, which is favorable for intensification. The atmosphere had a high mid-level relative humidity of 70%, and the ocean was very warm, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 30°C (86°F.)

[Baclava]

12. Lots of rain either way, name doesn't really mean much

Lots of flooding

No difference between calling it a Cat 1 and a strong TS...same effects

[malaise]

13. I see they're suggesting voluntary evacuations

in one Texas coastal county

Here's a nice resource

http://spaghettimodels.com/

[davsand]

14. Texas A&M at Corpus has already issued a mandatory evac for their students.

My daughter left there to come back to Illinois to finish her Bachelor's, but she has a bunch of friends there still. It was a lovely campus, and she did well there academically and socially. It is on an island, however, and it is vulnerable to storm surge. I worried through the hurricane season the entire time she was there.

She says the university rents a campground in San Antonio for displaced students during an evacuation...

Stay safe, everybody!



Laura

[davsand]

15. Here's the announcement:

http://www.kristv.com/story/36201119/tamu-cc-announces-closure-ahead-of-tropical-depression-harvey

[malaise]

16. Corpus Christi may well take a direct hit

Tropical Storm Harvey is strengthening

[Baclava]

23. He blowing up! Cat 3 now....they blew another prediction right before landfall

#Harvey is quickly intensifying & is now forecast to be a category 3 #hurricane at landfall in Texas.

http://hurricanes.gov

[OnlinePoker]

24. If it does, it will be the first major hurricane to come ashore in the U.S. since 2005.

This is just an academic statistic because Michael skirted the whole coast of Florida last year without actually coming onshore and did as much damage as if it had, and Sandy may have been classified as a strong tropical storm by the time it hit but destroyed many lives in the process.

[OnlinePoker]

17. Definitely becoming better defined

60 mph winds now. Will be at least a Cat 1 when it comes ashore.

[B2G]

19. At least.

Cat 3 is not out of the question.

[B2G]

18. Hope everyone in TX is paying close attention.

Latest model runs have this thing exploding prior to landfall. Not a good situation at all.

[malaise]

20. I have a very bad feeling about Galveston

Glen Campbell died recently

[B2G]

21. Corpus Christie appears to be in the crosshairs right now.

But the whole area could be underwater. The rainfall predictions are staggering.

[malaise]

22. Yep the experts are now saying it looks like Corpus Christie

Batten down folks and stay safe