Who would you bet money is the Democratic nominee in 2020?

[Music Man]

Not who you'd prefer, but you think is most likely.

A high end list of possible candidates that have even be mentioned once might include:

Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Kamala Harris
Martin O'Malley
Elizabeth Warren
Tim Kaine
Deval Patrick
Cory Booker
Jerry Brown
Amy Klobuchar
Al Franken
Chris Murphy
John Hickenlooper
Lincoln Chafee
Terry McAuliffe
Adam Schiff
Kirsten Gillibrand
Eric Garcetti
John Delaney (U.S. Rep of Maryland - already declared)

I think the nominee is a name on that list. If this were roulette, I'd put my money on the Joe Biden space.

I'd say Elizabeth Warren is the next most likely. Name recognition, already a strong base of support, was on the VP shortlist, and her authentically populist politics are representative of the zeitgeist.

Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Kirsten Gillibrand would be contenders immediately upon announcing.

Deval Patrick would be in the conversation. Adam Schiff has been making a name for himself, but a congressman being nominated is exceptionally rare, and again, for the sake of this conversation, I'm interested in odds.

Chris Murphy has a lot going in his favor. His star will continue to rise, if he's not in the 2020 conversation.

Clinton and Sanders won't run again. Al Franken doesn't want it, I'm sure. McAuliffe, O'Malley, Hickenlooper, and Chafee will not get off the ground because of their blandness. There's no appetite for Tim Kaine.

Whatever happens, I will add this: Look at all the women who have even been mentioned: Harris, Gillibrand, Warren, Klobuchar. I saw one list that threw out Tammy Duckworth's name. I am exceptionally proud that we are the party that can put forth so many wonderful female leaders.

[JHan]

1. tough to say at this stage, likely contenders will emerge in 2018.

I wouldn't be surprised if Biden throws his hat in..

[Music Man]

3. I agree. Things will take shape in 2018.

What happens with the national landscape next year will influence everything, not to mention who gains or loses a job that year. It will be a new conversation. Also hard to say where the Russia investigation takes us. And since we "elected" a thoroughly unqualified joke like Donald Trump, the typical criteria for what makes a good nominee seem hardly worth discussing anymore.

Still, I think the nominee will be a name we've already heard.

[JHan]

12. " typical criteria for what makes a good nominee seem hardly worth discussing anymore. "

A lot to dissect there, you're right.

I'm still pondering on that.

[Beartracks]

9. Yep, and right now 2018 is very important for us all. n/t

[JHan]

11. agreed. It's critical.

[BannonsLiver]

17. There was a recent poll showing him beating Trump by 14

Obviously it means little in the grand scheme but if you're joe Biden and you see numbers like that it has to at least register on some level. How he's feeling physically a year or so from now could be the difference. He seems like he takes pretty good care of himself.

[JHan]

50. I have a hunch it'll be a crowded field , but we'll see

[CrispyQ]

2. Hickenlooper - oh puke. -nt

[rzemanfl]

4. With a raving lunatic in the White House, with all due respect, who the fuck cares?

I wake up every morning wondering what crazy thing he's done. This is survival and we need take things day by day.

Someone will emerge if we still have a country and a planet left.

[get the red out]

5. I looked at the whole list

And said "works for me"

Kamala Harris will be the nominee.

[BannonsLiver]

6. Couldn't begin to guess

There are so many variables. Will Dem voters want a younger face? Will they want someone who is more experienced? Who will be the dark horses? I could go on. That's a good comprehensive list though.

[Bleacher Creature]

10. My thoughts exactly.

We need to focus on and get through 2018, both because it's closer in time and because it will start to set the tone for 2020.

[BannonsLiver]

13. Agreed on 2018

But another factor to ponder in 2020. Will Trump run for re-election? Will he be able to run? Will he have a primary challenger? What, if any effect would that have on the Dem race?

But yeah I see 2020 as a secondary priority ATM.

[Bleacher Creature]

20. Most of the questions you raised about 2020 also hinge on 2018.

Republicans have shown a complete unwillingness to deal with the growing list of Trump scandals. If the Dems take the House in 2018, they can make sure that the investigations are real, and start taking steps toward impeachment. And even if the GOP holds the Senate, they have to deal with actions initiated by the House.

That will likely go a long way toward determining Trump's status. Personally, I see him resigning once the heat gets turned up. And I expect him to quit Palin style, i.e., whining about the "witch hunts" and taking his toys and going home.

[BannonsLiver]

25. Yes, I've been thinking more about resignation lately too.

[Chasstev365]

7. Jay Inslee/Joe Kennedy III in 2020!

[oasis]

44. Inslee would be a good bet.

[smirkymonkey]

54. I really like Joe Kennedy III

I think he has what it takes to win. However I am not sure if his name is a help or a hindrance.

[Doc Coco]

8. 3rd on your list.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

14. Think after Trump (or against Trump) we need someone who knows himself

completely to his soul. her soul. And is an honest person. Feels it and shows and can unabashedly speak it. Like the antithesis of Trump

[Rustyeye77]

15. HRC

[Control-Z]

52. She's the rightful President now

as far as I'm concerned. But I don't think she'll run again. I wish the county would get behind her now and insist, at the very least, the bastards make an apology and amends for what they've done to her.

[Warren DeMontague]

16. Biden, Clinton and Sanders shouldn't run. I also don't see any clamoring for Tim Kaine.

Two names worth considering that you left off are Jay Inslee and Gavin Newsom.

Also Pete Buttigeig may be one to watch.


Here is my short list:

Booker
Warren
Newsom
Harris
Inslee


I agree that Franken probably isnt interested.

[Music Man]

21. I'm a huge fan of Pete Buttigieg

Knows how to articulate a progressive vision, well-educated, a Navy veteran. I know some moderate to right-of-center friends in northern Indiana who LOVE his work as mayor.

You're the second person in this thread to mention Jay Inslee. Looks like I need to do a little research on him.

I also love Gavin Newsom and Joe Kennedy III. Excited for what they'll do for the party, and they're so young.

I like your way of thinking, Warren!

[The empressof all]

18. Al Gore/Patty Murray ticket

But it's way too early to start wagering....

[Me.]

19. First Off...Not Senator Sanders

He may run, has been hinting at, but can't see he'd be allowed to run under the Dem banner again. As for the others..Harris, Gillibrand Franken, Newsom, Klobuchar, O'Malley could have a shot. Jerry Brown might also have a shot considering his governance in Ca. but age may be a factor.

[SaschaHM]

26. "I'm now a Democrat again"

I'd eat my have if someone doesn't run that clip of Weaver stating how he would be a Democrat for life. I think the early CA primary could provide a big boost to Harris if she dominates as the resident politician. It could make her an early front runner.

[Me.]

29. The Good Thing Is We Seem To Have A Lot Of Dem OPtions

[ZX86]

22. More interested in what Democratic policy goals are in 2018.

I couldn't care less about political personalities. What will be our public policy goals? Medicare for All? $15 minimum wage? Free college? Legalize marijuana? End wars? Renewable energy?

[bagelsforbreakfast]

23. Personally I like Biden, Gillibrand, Booker and

Franken.

Joe Biden might be the perfect "settler" everyone looks for leadership after all the crap Trump will put us through before 2020. Plus he'd smoke Trump in every way. He has an integrity to him and he's experienced. (and his wife went to my alma-mater).

Gillibrand if we go for a woman again. Like her as VP if not Pres. She's tops.

Booker -- Middle America might view him more as THE ROCK vs. their hate-inspired image of Barack. I just hope he's more Bernie than Hilary.

Like Franken, but would like him really zinging Trump and the like, maybe as VP - but that might alienate non-Jewish america and drive the KKK-Trumpites to the polls.

As always love E. Warren. Just don't see middle America going for a New Englander.

[SaschaHM]

24. Who can fund a primary run to make it past New Hampshire and Iowa.

since 2 states that aren't that representative of the makeup of the party are still the early deciders.

I'd say Sanders/Harris/Booker/Patrick/Warren/Biden and possibly Gillibrand. Cortez-Masto could be a dark horse. She's under the radar atm (so she hasn't become a target) and as the first Latina Senator, I think she would be an excellent addition to the line up/could find a funding/voting base. Also, absent HRC, who are her primary supporters going to line up behind and will President Obama make an early endorsement this time around?

[Music Man]

27. Very nice analysis

[stevenleser]

28. Buttigieg. nt

[Robbins]

30. the dem establishment like 2016 has choosen

it will be harris.

[GulfCoast66]

41. Really.

Guess they forgot to send me the memo.

[CK_John]

31. I would add Melinda Gates.

[bagelsforbreakfast]

32. Harris is fine also but some may view her as too new to the nat. stage n/m

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

33. It is more than two years too early to begin this speculation.

But I'll respond anyway. Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and Bernie Sanders are all well past their Use By date. Oh, and Jerry Brown is older than any of them.

Al Franken is likewise in his late 60s.

Kirsten Gillibrand is at least a bona fide GenXer.

Whoever we nominate in 2020, he or she cannot be Same Old Same Old. The party desperately needs new blood. It is time the Boomers stepped aside and let younger generations take the reins of power.

[lunasun]

34. Not preferred but adding Mark Zuckerberg

https://www.cnet.com/news/mark-zuckerbergs-odds-of-winning-2020-election-coming-down/

[Music Man]

36. Oh yes, I meant to include him.

I've seen the stories lately. He may have these ambitions, but it will be a terrible idea. Even though he's in his 30s, he truly comes across as a kid. I could see him, at some point, positioning himself as an independent to break the two-party mold. His work is defined by innovation and bringing people of different communities together. He'd be a player if he ever enters politics, but "The Social Network" sure made him look like an asshole, and for better or worse, such impressions stick.

[TexasBushwhacker]

38. If he wants to get into politics, let him run for Senator

or Representative or Governor. Same goes for Melinda Gates. A cabinet position perhaps, but not President. Running the country is NOT like running a business. We don't need to make the same mistake the GOP made.

[Music Man]

39. Yup!

I can see him thinking he'd change the process by being self-funded or being a problem solver due to his entrepreneurship, but as we've seen the skills from government to business are not immediately transferable.

Zuckerberg is at least seemingly a better human being than Trump. His innovation, youth, and vision means that it's entirely possible that he'll enter politics. But I'm with you: Please let it be the Senate or governorship. Al Franken showed that one can make the leap into state/local politics, put your head down and get to work, and ultimately be taken seriously by your constituents. If Zuckerberg wants to really help people, he'll follow a similar path.

[Not Ruth]

43. It is just a question of when he will run, and when he does, he will not lose

Facebook is supposed to have had a great deal to do with 2016. I believe that their secret sauce will be further improved and tested in 2020. Then watch out, Zuckerberg will extract every advantage from his relationship with Facebook, to help him and not to help his competitors,

[flibbitygiblets]

53. Yeah first he needs to do something about the Russian bots on Facebook

he's aiding and abetting IMO

[lunasun]

58. He saw the potential for FB in an election- goods and bads of it . As I said not my preffered person

He could use this vehicle as a tool unfortunately because of American society's obsession
Aiding and abetting ? At least profiting !

[donco]

35. Tim Kaine nt

[nkpolitics1212]

37. Sherrod Brown-OH

A strong progressive Democrat from the Rust belt midwest-turn MI,PA,WI,and OH into blue states.
Brown wins re-election to the US Senate in 2018 and Democrats win the 2018 OH Governors Race could increase Brown's chances of being on the 2020 Democratic Ticket.
Kamala Harris/Sherrod Brown or Vice Versa.

[GulfCoast66]

42. If he can manage to win reelection to the senate

Then he will be my #1 choice

[Not Ruth]

40. Chances of running a white man against Trump/Pence are nil

Warren will run and I believe will get the nomination. The Bernie machine will back her.

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

45. Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Kirsten Gillibrand are all chasing the same donors and organization

I doubt more than one of the three will make a serious attempt, I suspect it will be Gillibrand who will have a bruising primary process after being cast as the "tobacco industry lawyer" by whatever form the Bernie movement takes.

[Sucha NastyWoman]

46. I have no idea but I do know this

Whoever we choose the Republicans will immediately claim they are the most liberal Democrat in the house/Senate/governor's house

[Yupster]

47. If I really had to put money on it, I'd say Hillary Clinton has the best odds of anyone, but

probably less than 20 %.

My gut feeling is it will be Elizabeth Warren.

[Jim Lane]

48. I'm surprised no one has mentioned my #1 pick.

Well, to the extent that one can have a #1 pick this early, but with a gun put to my head, given one chance to pick the nominee or I'll be killed, I'd pick:

Andrew Cuomo

He can point to executive positions held -- federal Cabinet post, state Attorney General, multiterm big-state Governor. The electorate seems to like that qualification. (Carter, Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Bush 43 had been governors. Bush 41 ran the CIA and Trump had been a business executive, as had Bush 43. The 2008 election featured two Senators, neither of whom had ever held an executive position, so one of them was bound to win.) Cuomo has some name recognition (partly because of his father). He can raise plenty of money from Wall Street. As of Election Day in 2020, he'll be 62 years old (turning 63 a month later), which puts him roughly in the zone of most winning candidates.

He'll lay a claim to fiscal conservatism while being a progressive (supporting marriage equality, eventually opposing fracking). He won't get much support from those of us who voted for Bernie. Nevertheless, he has a good chance of emerging as the candidate of the establishment wing, duking it out in the later primaries with a candidate favored by the progressive wing (Bernie or, more likely, someone else who's to the left of Hillary Clinton).

BTW, I think both Gillibrand and Kaine have already taken themselves out of the running, although of course they're allowed to reconsider.

[mvd]

49. Biden could run. But he would not be my preference

I hope Gillibrand reconsiders. Warren would be my first choice if Sanders doesn't run. But I have time to evaluate.

I'd put my money on Warren as of now.

[applegrove]

51. I'm hoping Al Franken changes his mind and runs in 2020 as President.

[Awsi Dooger]

55. No idea, and I think I would need at least 12/1 on anyone

I was tempted to say 25/1. That's probably better.

Betting wise I did have Almaz Ayana today. She is running for something, and quite dominant. I couldn't believe I got a positive (+110) price on her, considering 2016.

I didn't have Justin Gatlin, however. That was quite the return, as high as 33/1 depending where you shopped.

[democratisphere]

56. Kirsten Gillibrand.

[Cicada]

57. In a Democratic primary no one can beat Warren

She is my top pick to be President. BUT she is not the strongest candidate in a race against Pence, or even Trump should he be the Republican nominee.

Too soon for Seth Moulton? Four tours in the Middle East, stresses that we need to get back to bipartisan. Harvard physics major. This guy is the perfect Republican killer.


Klobuchar/Perez, Perez/Moulton,

[MerryBlooms]

59. Congressman Joe Kennedy III n/t

[JDC]

60. Id bet money Warren and Sanders pair up somehow.

[Sugarcoated]

61. Sen Al Franken for president

Gov Jerry Brown for vp