Trumps Base Sticks With Him Except in the South

[RandySF]

This week, a new set of state polls from Gallup showed President Donald Trump’s job approval numbers are very uneven and hold some deep challenges, but a deeper look at the numbers reveals clues about potential shifts in the electorate.

On the most basic level the Gallup data, based on daily tracking polls from Jan. 20 through June 30, show Trump’s job approval is “underwater” (with higher “disapprove” than “approve” numbers) in 31 of the 50 states. His approval number is only 50 percent or higher in 17 states.

But going deeper than Trump’s broad struggles, the numbers in specific states show how the president’s first six months seem to have locked down support in some places and perhaps changed the landscape in others.


http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-s-base-sticks-him-except-south-n787856

[JI7]

1. the lower numbers in the south probably has to do with his attack on Sessions

[cynatnite]

2. According to the article, demographics are changing in some southern states. n/t

[JI7]

4. yeah, but the unfavorable demo already doesn't support him

[quickesst]

3. The lower numbers in the south...

.... will probably cause some head scratching and a measure of disappointment for people in other regions.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Logical numbers everywhere

Nothing surprised me after fully reading that article. Pennsylvania and particularly Michigan and Wisconsin were unforced errors. Nothing more. The relationship between self-identified liberals and conservatives still held up to normal percentage last year in those states, which Hillary would have carried via superior emphasis and messaging. Now the Trump approval net is also in expected territory in those states.

Iowa and Ohio, on the other hand, are all but gone for the near future. Simply not enough non-whites and too many conservatives. I'm really worried about Sherrod Brown.

Arizona is the state we should be prioritizing at least 10x any other state. When a state reports 27% liberals it wants to join your side in the near future, probably not 2020 but good chance for 2024.

Texas and Georgia may look similar to Arizona in the Trump approval net but those are sucker states, the type Rachel Maddow would fall for. Texas in the 2016 exit poll reported a woeful 20% liberals while Georgia wasn't much better at 22%. The nation as a whole was 26%.

[Gabi Hayes]

6. Georgia?

The answer?

Diebold