FiveThirtyEight Chat: Is Bernie Sanders Really The Democratic Front-Runner?

[Purveyor]

It’s never too early to talk about the 2020 general election — right? So in this week’s politics chat, we’re discussing whether Bernie Sanders is already the Democratic front-runner (it’s been on our minds thanks partly to Vox). The transcript below has been lightly edited.

--clip
natesilver: Last week, Vox’s Matt Yglesias wrote a column claiming that Bernie Sanders — Clare, he’s the independent senator from Vermont who ran in the Democratic primary in 2016 and finished second to Hillary Clinton — was the Democrats’ “front-runner” for 2020. I’m sure you’ve all read that column?

harry: I have read that column. It was an enjoyable experience.

natesilver: I’m glad it made you feel warm inside. But here’s a question — and I want people’s SHORT, topline views before we go into the details of Yglesias’s argument. Is Bernie Sanders the Democrats’ front-runner for 2020?

clare.malone: No, not necessarily. There are other people who are garnering similar enthusiasm from a similar base. (Ahem, Elizabeth Warren.)

more...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-bernie-sanders-really-the-democratic-front-runner/

[pnwmom]

1. Nate's mistake throughout that interview is assuming that Hillary's millions of 2016 voters

will happily switch to her chief opponent in 2020.

Someone should have explained to him that that's pretty unlikely. Hillary voters, assuming she's not running again, will be looking for someone other than Bernie.

[Barack_America]

14. Interesting statement. If he were to achieve the nomination...

...you would not expect her supporters to support him?

[Demsrule86]

17. Honestly, I vote for the candidate with the :"D" next to their name, but I can't speak for others.

It is not just 2016, it is the comments about the Democratic Party, endorsing anti-choice candidate like Mello, as well as other comments concerning the Russia investigation that could reduce his chances to win a primary in 20. He should not run if he truly wants to advance a liberal agenda.

[pnwmom]

18. That wasn't the question. The question was who would be the favorite/front runner for the

Democratic nomination -- not the general.

I don't see Bernie being high on the list of Hillary supporters.

[Barack_America]

19. He wasn't high on their list in 2016 and came close.

He's consistently the most popular politician in America and he votes Democratic. Hard to deny the appeal of that.

That being said, as a Bernie supporter, for a variety of reasons, I hope he does not run. But I hope that he soon identifies his Barack Obama to his Ted Kennedy and mentors the hell out of that person on how to sell progressive politics to the average person. That'll be who I'm voting for because that will be the person who can win the General.

[pnwmom]

21. He didn't come close. He lost by 4 million votes. And there's no reason to believe

that the voters who chose Hillary would find him more appealing than Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Corey Booker, Adam Schiff, or a dozen other possible candidates.

[Barack_America]

22. You're assuming the Democratic voter base is stable?

I'm not sure why you would. The extent to which Independents decide to jump in on either side's primary can drown out the preferences of either party's faithful.

Also, it doesn't quite follow logically that Hillary's supporters don't like Bernie, given the approval numbers he has. I'm sure there are a good number joining with the most hardline GOP supporters in not liking Bernie, but statistically, they're well in the minority.

[pnwmom]

23. I don't think it's likely Independent voices would have any more success "drowning out"

the voices of Dems than they did in 2016. And I haven't seen any indication that the party base -- especially African American voters -- are any more drawn to him than before.

[MiltonBrown]

67. Bernie's apprentice- yes whoever that is has my vote. Bernie will be too old I think.

[Heaven Sent]

69. Considering Bernie's brother Larry is a very spry 82 years old

and very healthy. I have faith that Bernie can do the full 8 years.

I believe he can improve the longevity of America by being elected whether he is a Dem or not. We are united in bringing in the appropriate candidate for 2020, and if Nate says it's Bernie, then Bernie it is.

[Demsrule86]

164. I don't want a president in his 80's...I have seen cognitive failure in weeks and sometimes

days in that age group.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

29. Absolutely, especially if Bernie runs for the Democratic ticket again, as I expect him to.

Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!

[Demsrule86]

37. I don't think either can win a general in this environment.

We would lose. Bernie is not a Democrat ...he chose to go back to being independent. Thus he can not run on a Democratic ticket.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

48. Bernie only switched back to Independent to run for re-election in his Vermont Senate race...

... but I'm sure he would switch to the Democratic Party should he decide to run for President again. Based on his progressive POSITIONS, Bernie is, for all intents and purposes, a loyal Democrat. I read somewhere that he has voted with the Democratic majority over 99% of the time... more often than many long-time members. Isn't that what's truly important?

[xmas74]

63. But he's not a Democrat.

Bouncing between Democrat and Independent doesn't convey confidence.

[Heaven Sent]

70. CAUCUSES WITH DEMS 100% of the time.

I would call it confidence that he will stay on the Democratic side, and rebuild the party from within.

30 years of the same policies has not achieved Democrats everywhere much of anything. Maybe it's time to change the thinking?

[pnwmom]

77. He has withheld from the party his supporters database, which should be put in use right now

to build the party for 2018.

If he doesn't support the party, he doesn't deserve the party's support.

[Heaven Sent]

80. Bernie's list is his own, not the property of DNC

If he wishes to share it with the DNC, it is his choice.

[pnwmom]

89. And courts have ruled that the party's nomination process is its own. His failure to share his list

is a valid reason for them to exclude him. They need a candidate who will be "all in."

The simplest solution would also be the fairest. They should get rid of the elitist, unrepresentative caucuses and replace them with primaries in all 50 states. Bernie had very little support in primaries in 2016 and there's little reason to expect that would change in 2020.

[Heaven Sent]

90. I am not going to refight the primaries

But the truth is, it was Bernie's election, not Clinton's.

Nate Silver said Bernie Sanders will most likely be our party's nominee for 2020. I haven't seen anyone fight as hard as Bernie in terms of health care and battling McConnell. He remains very popular in his home state, and ironically enough, McConnell is the least-liked in his home state (because Kentucky is the MODEL of why ACA works)

When someone fights for an important issue like health care, I listen. Clinton should take a lesson from Bernie in regards to that.

[pnwmom]

91. Nate did NOT say that. LOL. Being the early front-runner tells us very little

about who will win the nomination. It is mostly a factor of Bernie's name recognition. There is plenty of time for someone new to enter the race -- like Obama (who was not an early favorite or a front-runner) did in 2008.

[musette_sf]

95. "When someone fights for an important issue like health care"...

You meant like Secretary Clinton has done for a quarter of a century, I'm sure. Instead of someone who called one of the top non-profit healthcare providers in America the, ahem, "establishment"...

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

111. I agree, Bernie will be the nominee in 2020... we need to come together...

and support him, or whoever the nominee ends up being. Regardless, united we stand...

[Demsrule86]

136. When pigs fly...I will not support a non-Democrat in the primary.

And I honestly think he loses big in 20 if he runs.

[musette_sf]

97. Gee, what would have happened if the DNC didn't want to share

the opportunity for a NON-DEMOCRAT to run in the Democratic Primary.....?

[musette_sf]

93. But he's not a Democrat

and never has been a Democrat.

[Demsrule86]

137. Nope don't agree...we need a Democratic president.

[Demsrule86]

165. He is not a Democrat.

I vote for Democrats...not independents. It is his choice remember. Had he remained a Democrat after the 16 election, I might feel differently.

[xmas74]

166. Still not a Democrat.

If he wants to be considered a Dem he needs to officially join,once and for all.

[Demsrule86]

135. He could have remained a Democrat for his run...so I don't buy it. He is not a loyal Democrat

because he is not a Democrat and has savaged the Democratic Party.

[musette_sf]

104. + 1

Democratic Primary for Democrats

[brush]

34. IMO he won't be allowed to run as a Democrat again.

Why in hell would we invite that divisiveness to the party again?

He used the party for his run then dumped us and is back to being an independent.

No thank you.

[Warren DeMontague]

87. Who's gonna not allow him?

How's that gonna work, precisely?

[brush]

102. Weren't you around in 2015? He asked the DNC to be put on ballots in the primaries.

He's not a Democrat. One's name just doesn't appear on Dem ballots, there is a procedure that has to be followed and decisions made as to whether a particular person is accepted.

After the 2016 "fighting the Democratic Party establishment" debacle many feel that a person, particularly running for the highest office in the land, must have been a Democrat for a substantial length of time so we don't have a repeat of someone converting for their own convenience to use the party's national grassroots apparatus that doesn't exist among independents — especially from a small state.

Many are still feel burned from being used like that.

[musette_sf]

107. +1

and *many* agree with you.

[Warren DeMontague]

108. So have you contacted Tom Perez?

..heard back yet?

Personally, I want nothing more than a broad field for 2020, preferably of younger democrats like Newsom and Harris, west coasters with a clue on issues like cannabis.

Last thing we need is a rehash of 2016, so no Bernie OR Hillary or Biden for that matter, to my mind.

But we also dont need national spokespeople like DWS who support sending terminally ill grannies to prison for growing a pot plant in their basement.

[brush]

109. Agreed on those issues. Fresh blood needed. But why ask me if I've contacted Perez?

I'm not running and trying to get on the Dem ballot.

Let me re-phrase that. If I were running, I have long-standing credentials as a Dem so I wouldn't have to beg to be allowed to run as a Dem. I am a Dem.

[Warren DeMontague]

118. Yeah, me too.

But it's not about you trying to get on the ballot, it's about being concerned that non-Democrats or those who haven't been Democrats until recently or who don't generally identify as Democrats (Bernie, basically, because really the prospective use cases here are pretty limited) not be allowed on the ballot next time.

That's why I asked about Perez. If it's that important to change the rules, party leadership is gonna have to drive it, right?

...although beyond that I suspect those sorts of rules would be a state-by-state matter, anyway.

[brush]

141. Ok, we're on the same page.

[Chemisse]

130. I couldn't agree more - we need some fresh faces.

The Clinton - Sanders contest was incredibly divisive, and continues to be! We need candidates who don't bring a lot of baggage with them from the past, and who can unify us as we go into a general election.

[Samantha]

113. He is a Democratic Socialist and has been for decades

The difference between a Democrat and a Democratic Socialist is that the latter thinks the government should work for all of the people, not just the wealthy and the corporations. There is no category for Democratic Socialists in the Senate, so he is labeled an Independent. He did change his registration to simply Democrat in order to run in 2016, but switched back after the election.

Sam

[Demsrule86]

120. He can run as an independent but not as a Democrat...time to move on past the 2016 primary.

I expect less votes in 20 than 16 because of his criticisms of the Democratic Party...even if he convinced the DNC to allow him to run, I would not vote for him. He has said bad things about the Democrat Party.

[Warren DeMontague]

126. I myself don't want Hillary, Bernie, or Joe to run next time, personally.

But I'm asking about the procedure, not the philosophical opinion. If he says he's a Democrat to run, then how exactly is he not going to be "allowed" to? Serious question.

[Demsrule86]

133. He can't say he is a Democrat because he is not...he has an 'I' next to his name...and for

me and many other Democrats that is a deal breaker...if he switches parties again just for another primary run...I think that is somewhat opportunistic and will turn off more voters. We should have new faces in 20. I like Sherrod Brown...who is a liberal but has rust belt support. I am more concerned with 18... any president needs a Congress of the same party. I doubt we will ever see another SCOTUS justice confirmed without the president's party having the Senate as well.

[brush]

144. Easy answer. We all know he's not a Democrat. He can try the converting trick again...

but once burned, twice shy as they say.

We don't need divisiveness again — the "Democrats need to stop playing identity politics", or the "I'm fighting the Democratic Party establishment" schtick again.

He's not a Democrat. He even re-registered as an independent after using us in 2016.

No thank you to that again.

[Warren DeMontague]

153. Yes... but "people won't support him this time" isn't the same thing as

"his name won't be allowed on our ballots".

[brush]

155. Huh? Since he's not a Democrat, he wil still have to get permission to run as Democrat.

He's not a Democrat. His name won't just automatically appear on Democratic primary ballots because his supporters want it to.

[Warren DeMontague]

156. So how'd that work last time?

[brush]

157. We already went through this. He had to get approved by the DNC. Not likely to happen again...

because of the divisiveness.

[Warren DeMontague]

158. Where is your evidence that the DNC at the national level had to "allow" him to run?

I'd like to see it. I cant find a link to anything, to that effect.

I believe it is a state by state question, for one.

Furthermore, i think it would probably be more divisive to prevent him from running than to allow him to compete among a bigger, more diverse field of candidates. I think a lot of his support last time came from people who felt they werent being offered any real alternatives.

[brush]

160. You apparently weren't alive during the last campaign. That he asked to run as a Dem was...

a huge story.

As for alternatives, there will be several candidates who will be much younger than Sanders who will pushing 80 in 2020.

[Warren DeMontague]

161. Who did he "ask", specifically?

We're not talking about declaring or not declaring as a (D). We're talking about actual party rules and their implementation as to who gets on the ballot.

Again, I'm not finding any evidence that there was any rule-waiving or "allowing" by the DNC at the national level to permit him to be there.

If there was, great, go ahead and post it. I will gladly concede that I blanked it out.

But like I said, I think it's actually a question that is determined state-by-state.

[brush]

162. I'm bored with this. If you weren't paying attention during 2015-16 that's on you.

[Warren DeMontague]

163. Yeah...

that's what I thought.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

146. Good question.

[bettyellen]

52. Less than enthusiastically, I'd say. Not being a loyal Dem is a huge problem for me right now-

And all this "let's not rush to judge Trump" is making me very wary of him.

[Warren DeMontague]

86. If they want to stay on DU, they will.

Thems the rules!

[Demsrule86]

121. He won't win a primary...so it is a moot point...the best chance was last time.

[Warren DeMontague]

127. By definition, a discussion of hypotheticals

involves hypotheticals.

[Demsrule86]

131. Quite true...but I just don't see the support for another run...and he could damage our chances in

the general.

[Warren DeMontague]

132. I think it's way too early to worry about it, honestly.

[Demsrule86]

139. I am more concerned with 18...but my fear is if Sen. Sanders runs again in20...he will

lose and divide the party further...he has support...it is not enough to win a primary in my opinion, but may be enough to spoil the general election...which would be a disaster for liberalism.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

112. Of course they would support Bernie, just like Bernie's supporters did for Hillary.

[Demsrule86]

119. I would...but no I don't think some would vote for him. I also think he would lose very badly

regardless...country is center left...a Democratic Socialist won't get elected.

[Demsrule86]

16. After what Bernie has said about the Democratic Party, I would not vote for him in a primary.

I do not believe he could win the 2020 Democratic primary, but it might cause division... this could help the GOP get a second term which would be a disaster for progressives.

[Agschmid]

75. If he is the front runner they are going to have to get over it.

[pnwmom]

76. Nope. They can just turn someone else into the front runner. In the extremely unlikely event

(in my opinion) that he wins the nomination, then they'll need to get behind him.

But not before.

[Warren DeMontague]

85. I suspect most people in our party want what's best for our party.

This idea that someone should be "punished" for running against someone else.... this is politics. Running is what candidates do. Why hold a grudge over that?

Hillary herself ran against Obama in 2008. That race got pretty ugly at times.

Who is laboring under this belief that no one was supposed to be "allowed" to run against Hillary last time?


Personally, I don't want a rehash of 2016, and I want a younger and more geographically diverse bench. I certainly don't want one pre-ordained "marquee" candidate sucking all the air out of the process, whether the name is Biden, Sanders, whatever.

I want people like Harris, Newsom, etc. Maybe Jay Inslee. It's gotta be someone who is comfortable in the 21st century.

[seaglass]

128. It isn't a matter of being "punished" for running against Hillary. Can't rehash the primary but

his post election efforts at unity are shit - we need all hands on deck and Bernie continues to attack Democrats.

I am a fan of Kamala Harris who is already being attacked by BoBers for not prosecuting Steven Mnuchin's bank.

I hope Bernie decides early whether he will run or not. I think he has the potential to fuck up the 2020 election by dragging out his decision and/or endorsement.

[Warren DeMontague]

129. I defiinitely dont want a singular, pre-ordained "marquee" candidate sucking the air out of the room

we need a broad, vigorous field and a real conversation about issues, and party/national direction.

I don't personally want Bernie to run, but I also think it's facile to expect that the currents which caused his primary run to be so surprisingly more successful than many expected last time around, are going away.

[seaglass]

143. I don't really get why people were surprised at Bernie's success, he had a strong message that

appealed to many. I totally get that he has a loyal base but he did lose after all and he doesn't seem to be doing anything to expand that base.

I'm still stung by my bad 2015 prediction to my daughter that Trump could never get near the Presidency. I really didn't think there were that many deplorables so no predictions on what will happen in 2020, at least today.

If my wish could come true it would be that Bernie, Hillary and Biden don't run along with anyone else who ever ran in a Dem presidential primary (with the exception of O'Malley maybe). Also don't want a 17 candidate debate clown show. Other than that I am uncommitted and open.

[LuvLoogie]

2. Bernie is not a Democrat. So, no.

[onetexan]

6. Yep, this time they'd better not let him on the ticket

[JCanete]

7. who is they...

[onetexan]

10. DNC

[JCanete]

47. oh, you mean us? They represent us right? I'm not sure how popular that decision

would be amongst us, since Sanders has like an 80 percent approval rating among Democrats.

[onetexan]

62. NO, not DEMS as a whole

look up who makes up the DNC. The chair at the time was Debbie Wasserman-Schulz, and it was her who let him run on the Democratic ticket. I didn't vote for Sanders, and i know millions more also did not. He splintered the Democratic party, and after the election was stolen by Agent Orange he said he ISN'T a Democrat in case you didn't get the 411.

[JCanete]

74. Yes, somebody makes a decision on our behalf. You don't think barring a liberal from running

within the party would be splintering given Sanders popularity amongst Democrats? You think that that would somehow be in our interests for our leadership to broker undemocratically, who can and who cannot run on the ticket? Doing anything to harm the democratic nature of our primary election process would not be in the service of our party's brand.

[onetexan]

96. bottom line a candidate SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO RUN ON A DEMOCRATIC PARTY TICKET

if he says he is NOT a Democrat.

[JCanete]

115. When he runs he says he is a democrat, and enough of us are happy to invite him to run in our party.

The DNC Leadership needs to keep in mind what the DNC membership wants, even if its only half of us, or 40 percent of the party. I'd wager though, that the number okay with him running is higher than the number that would vote for him, so I wouldn't be surprised if the majority is entirely okay with him running on the D ticket.

[Hortensis]

64. I believe we can do better and should learn from

our experiences. As for current data, let's face it -- Sanders and HIllary are the only names 80% of Democrats know at this point. Polls like that one are irrelevant for 2020. At the political approriate time other names will become known. (And, of course, Sanders is about to turn 76, then inexorably 77,. 78, 79.)

The battles for who will take control in 2020 are already on, as the news of political events reminds us every single day. Whoever will present themselves as new candidates for those who stayed loyal to Sanders after the primary are known to those considering them now, but not to us.

We live in very interesting political times. We can expect that messages promoting the choices of various power blocs will be targeted directly to Sanders loyalists, so most of us will likely first become aware of these new names when they are enthusiastically posted for discussion on forums like this one.

[JCanete]

72. I don't think it likely Sanders will run. If we have a candidate who represents what he represents,

I'm sure he won't. If we don't, and he ends up deciding to run, for want of what I consider a better option, I will certainly vote for him. I hope that's not what we see in 2020 though. As to why we're even having this discussion here though, its because I thought it weird that we would hope that on somebody's, certainly not mine, behalf, certain persons who are popular among Democrats would be barred from running in the party by those in positions to make that decision for reasons...

[sheshe2]

78. I ask this sincerely.

You say he has 80% approval ratings among Democrats? When and where please and provide the link that you have as you are stating this as fact. Thank you.

[onetexan]

94. Yea i was wondering the same thing

80%?? stretching it wildly is more like it.

[sheshe2]

99. Exactly, onetexan.

[JCanete]

114. favorable rating. I don't mean to mislead here, and there is a difference between those two things..

a consequence of sending that without reading it over. That does nothing to change my point, but should be clarified, thank you. I'm happy to provide that for you, if that's what you're looking for. Never mind, here you go...


Harvard Harris Poll.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/329404-poll-bernie-sanders-countrys-most-popular-active-politician

[Demsrule86]

122. It would be popular with Democrats...and I do not believe he has an 80% approval rating...he would

have won last time if he did...mark my words, I doubt he will run...and not as a Democrat...but if he did the base will crush him early on ...I see a great deal of anger about the stuff he has said lately. A person who chooses to be an independent has no right to the Democratic nomination. We don't want Trump or whoever it left standing to win, thus we need fresh candidates. Neither Sanders not Clinton should run.

[JCanete]

147. of course you see a great deal of anger. You are here on DU where it gets hashed out every day.

But discussed ad nauseum, we as a party...all of us in the fucking party, have the right to decide who has the right to run as a democrat. If you think barring people who a large portion of democrats want on the ticket is good for the party and NOT divisive, I'd love to hear your logic.

[Demsrule86]

148. I don't think a non-Democrat on the ticket is a good idea...I want to win. In a center left country,

running a socialist seems foolish. I have seen no indication of electoral appeal either. You have to belong to a party to run under their banner. He could have stayed a Democrat after the election but chose not to. I won't vote for him...and I think many won't. There is a move to end undemocratic caucuses...and I believe that removes any chance for victory.

[JCanete]

150. of course there would be a move to do that, and certainly no move to make primaries open. This isn't

a disagreement though, about whether or not Sanders would win the nomination...it is about whether or not he should be barred, should he run, from participating in the Democratic primary.

[TreasonousBastard]

3. He's 75, ferchrissakes-- anyone really want a President in his 80's? He's got great name...

recognition, and he might get a lot of anti-Trump rebound, but there just isn't that much "there" there. a Bernie Loretta Sanchez ticket would be a great show, but won't get us the White House.

Liz Warren's a thought, but notice how Kamala Harris is getting press lately?

In another year or two some more really good people should pop up and we'll have some great choices.

[SunSeeker]

9. Yep, I am sure a lot more names will, and should, pop up as we approach 2020.

There's already buzz about Lousiana governor John Bel Edwards. He won in a deep red state and is doing an amazing job cleaning up the mess Bobby Jindal left him.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

30. Do love Kamala too!

[yallerdawg]

40. Kamala Harris checks off every box!

Not much national political garbage/history (like when Obama ran) - check.

Youthful and unknown - (like most of our winners!) - check!

Minority heritage (like our last winner!)- check!

Woman (OVERDUE!) - check!

DEMOCRAT - CHECK!!!!

I consider her the frontrunner!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

49. She sure does tho I think @this early stage Bernie wud have to be the favorite if he decides to run.

[pnwmom]

79. Me, too!

[Warpy]

54. You mean he's got great policy ideas

and that is what scares the hell out of a lot of pundits, not the man himself.

[bdtrppr6]

4. Bernie's done

no chance in 2020. pointless. HRC will be close to too fuckin old too by then.

there are few STRONG dem candidates at this point. Biden? see above. Booker? Kamala Harris? hahahaha no way. Franken is a tough son of a bitch and smart AF, but the majority of our country is too stupid to get AL! so no chance again there. Al Franken, I would vote for.

I would love it if could happen, but it won't. all of this commotion better be revealing some new leaders from all sides.

[bdtrppr6]

5. just thought of one Dem to hope on

ADAM SCHIFF.

"shut em down, Adam, please."

he doesn't seem to be a total knucklehead.

[Demsrule86]

13. Sherrod Brown.

[Me.]

28. And You're Laughing About Kamala Harris...Why?

[brush]

35. I agreed with you. Kamala Harris has to be considered

The young Kennedy (I forget his first name but that last name can't be dismissed), Newsom from California also, Castro from Texas, Adam Schiff also from Cali — wow, California has a lot of potential candidates.

[Me.]

39. Agree That Calif. Is Full Of Talent

Especially Newsom. I would prefer Schiff stay on the Intelligence committee because he is so effective there. As for Castro, his heart is in the right place but he may be too lightweight, meaning not enough experience yet. I also wonder why HRC didn't pick him as veep.

[brush]

42. I was hoping Hillary would pick Castro. Kaine wa political calculus I guess to appeal to white males

What do you think about Villaraigosa, another Californian?

[Me.]

43. Have No Problem With Villaraigosa

But I am more impressed with Xavier Becerra. However, both would have name recognition problems outside of Ca.

Truth is almost any Dem would be an improvement on what we have now

[brush]

44. I forgot about Bacerra. He is also impressive. Some of these mentions could slide nicely into..

into the VP slot.

[Me.]

45. Exactly

[Expecting Rain]

61. Kindly don't call my state "Cali"

Just stop. OK?

[Blue_Warrior]

82. Whats wrong with Cali?

[brush]

103. Sorry, didn't know it was a no-no. But you have nothing to contribute to the discussion but that?

[Algernon Moncrieff]

169. I was born in Oakland - Cali is fine

It makes you sound like a tourist, but it's fine.

[Warren DeMontague]

154. I also like Jay Inslee of Washington. And Oregon has two excellent Senators.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

50. I'm with you... Kamala should be taken very seriously.

[Me.]

51. !

[SunSeeker]

8. No. Bernie is not a member of the Democratic Party. nt

[Foamfollower]

11. NO NON-DEMOCRATS IN OUR PRIMARIES!!!!!

[Demsrule86]

12. No he is not the frontrunner...he is not Democrat. As he went back to running as an independent ,

he cannot run in the Democratic Primary. Should he choose to run as an independent which I doubt he would do, his legacy would be a second term for Trump or whoever is left standing.

[AngryAmish]

15. Rep. Maxine Waters MUST be considered.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

32. Do love the way Maxine isnt afraid to speak her mind... she would make mincemeat of Donny Tiny Hands

[Gidney N Cloyd]

36. She's almost 80.

[AngryAmish]

41. Don't be ageist.

She is tremendous.

[monmouth4]

20. Adam Schiff has such promise. Would like to see him considered..n/t

[Bettie]

24. At this point

we have no idea who will come out on top.

It is far too early to even speculate.

[pirateshipdude]

25. I am thinking Sanders will not be invited to participate in another Democratic primary. Eom

[former9thward]

81. Nobody is "invited" to participate in Democratic primaries.

A candidate follows the procedures to get on the various state ballots and if they get enough support they win. The party does not get to pick and choose who runs.

[pnwmom]

105. The party can choose to replace all the caucuses -- where he got most of his vote -- with primaries.

That would also have the advantage of being a much fairer, more representative process, getting rid of the last vestiges of the "smoke filled rooms" that used to determine our nominees.

[onetexan]

98. i agree, and i hope not

[tblue37]

26. Joe Lieberman was the Democratic front runner at the start of the campaign for

2004. At this point it is just about name recognition and ongoing publicity.

And I say this as someone who supported Bernie in the primary.

[JCanete]

116. true enough. This is a pretty worthless exercise at this point...

[still_one]

27. As I recall, in order to be the Democratic front runner, you have to be a Democrat, and if

I recall, he made sure that he wouldn't be labelled as a Democrat, after he utilized the Democratic party for his political ambitions, and promptly went back to the Senate with the "independent" label.

What really matters is getting through 2018, and the only thing this does is sow divisions among Democrats, who remember only too well, half hearted endorsements, and some refusing to vote for the Democratic nominee.

[NurseJackie]

38. That is correct.

[David__77]

56. I think that's incorrect.

The question is who will win the Democratic nomination. There's no rule against him running and winning in 2020.

[still_one]

58. In order for someone to be considered the Democratic front runner, he has to run as a Democrat

As of right now Sanders has made a point of letting everyone know he is now an independent.

He can certainly run as an independent, but in that case he will end up like most 3rd party candidates for president, losing

[David__77]

59. Running in the Democratic primaries is "running as a Democrat."

I don't know where you get your information. If he wins the most delegates he would be the nominee unless DNC changes something.

[still_one]

65. No, He won't even get on the ballot as a Democrat in most states unless he identifies as a Democrat

He has to fill out the appropriate paper work for most states and identify as a Democrat. What do you think he did in 2016?

[David__77]

66. I think that if he wants to run in 2020, he will do whatever is required.

The feverish anti-Sanders factionalism is something I find striking.

[still_one]

73. Of course

[Demsrule86]

123. If Sen.Sanders does this...we will lose.

We need fresh candidates...and having dealt with elderly family members...80 is too old...there can be a rapid decline... I think 70 is pushing it really...I think Reagan spent part if not most of his last term in the grip of Alzheimer. I would hope that Sen. Sanders would consider what will happen to the country is we lose again and act accordingly.

[murielm99]

110. Many states will now require that

candidates release their income taxes. Bernie has not done that.

[Adrahil]

31. No way would I vote for him in a primary.

In my opinion, he has become the most divisive force in the modern history of the party. I am developing a cordial dislike for Sen. Sanders, and I used to actually LIKE him (though I did not support him). Now when I see him, I start feeling angry. It's as if the man has no awareness of how modern electoral politics work. I think he has ZERO chance of getting the nomination.

For the record, if he got the nomination, I would vote for him.

[Demsrule86]

33. He won't get the nomination...and would end up I believe with embarrassing numbers.

[onetexan]

101. his "democratic socialism" message makes no sense

it's rather contradictory and would cost trillions, as noted in this Time article:
http://time.com/4121126/bernie-sanders-democratic-socialism/

[Demsrule86]

124. He can't win a primary in 20 in my opinion...and will certainly lose a general in 20...

I doubt he would want his legacy to be the destruction of progressive politics because if we lose again with the ages of the justices on SCOTUS...we are cooked.

[musette_sf]

106. + 1

I used to be a great admirer and supporter of Sen Sanders, and I agree with you.

[oberliner]

46. He is the front runner in the way Nate defines the term

The horse that jumps out to the early lead.

[Squinch]

53. Are they asking this because the Sanders group "Our Revolution" has proven such a powerful

force in uniting and galvanizing the left?

[David__77]

55. I would consider supporting him.

Particularly if he toughened up quite a bit, which I find unlikely. I don't thing he was committed to winning and defeating his opponents.

I want to support someone who is committed to seizing and wielding political power.

I do oppose any move to sideline him from the Democratic Party's ongoing political conversation.

[Demsrule86]

125. I would not support Sen. Sanders in a primary or Sec Clinton. I want a fresh face. nt

[PoliticAverse]

57. Is FiveThirtyEight really desperate for clicks? n/t

[emulatorloo]

60. Nah, responding to a Matt Iglesias article that was all the rage in twitter-land

So sorta timely I guess

Still way to early to be thinking about 2020 imho

Here's the Article

Bernie Sanders is the Democrats’ real 2020 frontrunner
He's staffing up, touring the country, and still drawing record crowds.
Updated by Matthew Yglesias@[e-mail] Jul 5, 2017, 8:01am EDT

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/7/5/15802616/bernie-sanders-2020

[bearsfootball516]

68. Bit of a surprise to me

It's been a little surprising in my opinion that Julian Castro's name hasn't been thrown around a lot. He's young, would be popular with the Latino and minority vote, has experience, and was in President Obama's cabinet. He also appears to have shown interest in running, at least that's what I gather from this article.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/politics/article/Julian-Castro-addresses-potential-presidential-11188181.php

[Initech]

71. 538 is dead to me. Forever.

Fuck them and fuck Nate Silver, I will never believe anything he says ever again after what happened last year.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

83. Nate said Trump had a 1 in 4 chance.

[lunamagica]

92. And that's one of the reasons why I think the election was stolen. Was every poll wrong?

I just can't believe that

[Initech]

100. Yeah there was something very wrong there.

This whole thing is like peeling an onion. The more the layers are peeled, the more it stinks, and the more you're likely to cry as a result.,

[samnsara]

84. dear lord can we have a candidate YOUNGER than me?

[Warren DeMontague]

88. I think it's way too early for that conversation.

Personally, I don't want a rehash of 2016, that means no Hillary, no Bernie and no Biden either.

[lillypaddle]

117. OMG

I fucking hope not!

[betsuni]

134. Maybe I'm the only one, but I have the feeling Sanders wants to run as an Independent in 2020.

That would be bad.

[VermontKevin]

138. I don't think it's sunk in to most people yet, but I doubt Bernie will be running for anything.

[Demsrule86]

140. Does he want his legacy to be acting as a 'Nader' and electing Republicans ...I don't believe that.

I don't agree with Sen. Sanders on somethings...but he would not destroy liberalism. I do not believe he will run as an independent.

[betsuni]

145. I don't think he sees it that way.

He hasn't listened when it was pointed out to him that his definition of political correctness was wrong, I think he doesn't know what identity politics is, keeps using "establishment" as an insult for Democrats and Planned Parenthood. He doesn't listen. I think he believes that running as an independent appealing to economic populism will win the next election. Just my feeling. (And Sanders would great, the best, if only he'd stop trashing Democrats! Don't know what that's about, it's weird.)

[Demsrule86]

149. Well if he runs as an independent and gives the GOP a lock down on the courts,

he has destroyed any chance for a progressive movement for years...and will in the end be despised. I don't see it happening if he truly cares about policy...guess we shall see.

[Renew Deal]

142. No. He would lose again.

[tonyt53]

151. Fact is, the nominee will be someone aged 48-60 and a new face of the Party.

Sanders and/or Clinton will both be non-factors in determining who the eventual nominee is. Still going to be someone that MUST appeal to the white middle class voter that is moderate on most opinions. Sanders can't appeal to that group and Clinton won't even try to influence anyone.

[Progressive dog]

152. It is way too early to poll for the Presidential election

The 2018 Democratic candidates haven't even been chosen yet. Most are still making up their minds as to whether they'll run. There are no Democratic candidates for the nomination yet.
If Russia is still involved in our elections in 2020, who knows who Putin will choose.

[Blue_Tires]

159. Can people please STFU about 2020 so we can focus on 2018?

Because I promise you all the GOP is quietly focused on is picking up more seats...

[nikibatts]

167. God, I hope not.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

168. 40 months out, nobody is a frontrunner

Barack Obama was barely a blip on the radar in Summer '05. Nobody in their right mind thought Trump would be the next President in July '13.

[LittleBlue]

170. Please make it happen

Bernie 2020