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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy Obama Voters Defected
By Jamelle Bouie at Slate
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2017/06/voter_study_group_and_why_obama_voters_defected_to_trump.html
SNIP..............
Drutman plots the electorate across two axesone measuring economic views, the other measuring views on identityto build a political typology with four categories: liberals, conservatives, libertarians, and populists. Liberals, the largest single group, hold left or left-leaning views on economics and identity. Libertarians, the smallest group, hold right-leaning views on economics but leftward beliefs on identity. Conservatives are third largest, with right-leaning views on both indices, while populiststhe second largest groupare the inverse of libertarians, holding liberal economic views and conservative beliefs on identity.
Most populists, according to Drutman, were already Republican voters in the 2012 election, prizing their conservative views on identity over liberal economic policies. A minority, about 28 percent, backed Obama. But four years later, Clinton could only hold on to 6 in 10 of those populist voters who had voted for Obama. Most Democratic defectors were populists, and their views reflect it: They hold strong positive feelings toward Social Security and Medicare, like Obama voters, but are negative toward black people and Muslims, and see themselves as in decline.
This is a portrait of the most common Obama-to-Trump voter: a white American who wants government intervention in the economy but holds negative, even prejudiced, views toward racial, ethnic, and religious minorities. In 2012, these voters seemed to value economic liberalism over a white, Christian identity and backed Obama over Romney. By 2016, the reverse was true: Thanks to Trumps campaign, and the events of the preceding years, they valued that identity over economic assistance. In which case, you can draw an easy conclusion about the Clinton campaigneven accounting for factors like misogyny and James Comeys twin interventions, it failed to articulate an economic message strong enough to keep those populists in the fold and left them vulnerable to Trumps identity appeal. You could then make a firm case for the future: To win them back, you need liberal economic populism.
But theres another way to read the data. Usually, voters in the political crosscurrents, like Drutmans populists, have to prioritize one of their chief concerns. Thats what happened in 2008 and 2012. Yes, they held negative views toward nonwhites and other groups, but neither John McCain nor Mitt Romney ran on explicit prejudice. Instead, it was a standard left vs. right ideological contest, and a substantial minority of populists sided with Obama because of the economy. That wasnt true of the race with Trump. He tied his racial demagoguery to a liberal-sounding economic message, activating racial resentment while promising jobs, entitlements, and assistance. When Hillary Clinton proposed a $600 billion infrastructure plan, he floated a $1 trillion one. When Clinton pledged help on health care, Trump did the same, promising a cheaper, better system. Untethered from the conservative movement, Trump had space to move left on the economy, and he did just that. For the first time in recent memory, populist voters didnt have to prioritize their values. They could choose liberal economic views and white identity, and they did.
...............SNIP
boston bean
(36,223 posts)It was misogyny. They coould deal with a black male president and make a vote in their interest. Even if they were bigots. But voting for a woman. Hell to the fucking no they said as they continued on to vote against self preservation.
pirateshipdude
(967 posts)Hoyt
(54,770 posts)bagelsforbreakfast
(1,427 posts)Democrats and Bernie (who did) should have STRESSED and PROMISED and VOWED and MEANT IT about putting MORE MONEY in us 99% pockets - shout it - like FDR stressed, not as a slogan but as in at the barricades.
Bitching about tax cuts for the rich doesn't put money in Joe lower-middle class pockets (like Trump's lies about Coal jobs promised) and is like Muzak by now.
spicysista
(1,663 posts)Once again, Mr. Bouie offers another valuable perspective on a complicated topic. I've been very fascinated by the Obama to Trump voters. There seems to be some soft pedaling around their racial angst in the msm. Thanks for posting!
applegrove
(118,778 posts)spicysista
(1,663 posts)I've been around for a bit, but decided to officially join after last year's election attack. Again, thanks for the welcome.
dawg
(10,624 posts)The Great Recession swept Barack Obama into the Presidency.
But by 2016, things were much better. Not great, but better.
As a result, many people felt safe enough to vote based on "other" issues - abortion, race, guns, religion, xenophobia, etc.
Sen. Walter Sobchak
(8,692 posts)Shortly after the 2008 election I went to an event where a Republican elder statesman was one of the speakers and this guy hammered really, really hard that people like Obama, they like Michelle and kids too and that running against a AM radio inspired boogieman was not going to resonate with people who had already decided they like him. He owed his meteoric rise to the fact that just about anybody who wasn't a racist was just plain going to like the guy.
The guy was supposed to nominally be speaking about his diplomatic career, Afghanistan and foreign aid but people kept trying to set the stage for him to attack Obama and he just sort of snapped.
People who are attractive and likeable just have it a little easier in all things, whether it's trying to check-in early at a hotel or run for president, fair or not people like Romney and Hillary Clinton don't get that privilege.
KingDem
(13 posts)Wow.
applegrove
(118,778 posts)years making sure there was a long recession. Why? They didn't want people connecting and enjoying Obama as President to preserve the GOP's racist southern strategy. And, for the first time ever, one party (GOP) attacked all the foreign policy of a President constantly. Without a break.
standingtall
(2,787 posts)only logical explanation for voting for the first African American in history and then turning around and voting for the man that spent 5 years claiming the first black President in history wasn't even a citizen of this country. Just because someone has racial anxiety does not mean they cannot also have economic anxiety. In 2008 and 2012 they were more concerned with economic anxiety over racial anxiety.